저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 코로나 공급측 침체 이후 소비심리가 꺾이기 시작했으나, 실제 소비 지표에는 아직 뚜렷이 나타나지 않는다는 진단. 거시 배경: 봉쇄 이전 연 2% 성장하던 경제가 봉쇄로 공급측 침체에 빠졌고, 2.5조달러 현금 지원으로 수요는 남아 인플레이션이 발생했다. 연준은 금리를 크게 올리는 중이며, 이것이 향후 수요 파괴형 침체를 유발할 수 있다고 봤다. 샌프란시스코 오피스: 한 중개사는 연말까지 공실 3천만 평방피트(시내 약 7,500만 평방피트 대비 약 40%)를 예상했다. 재택·하이브리드 근무로 임차 공간이 줄고 장기 임대차 만기가 도래하면서 신규 임대료는 크게 낮아질 전망이다. 부동산 금융 리스크: 건물 담보대출의 DSCR(부채상환비율) 하락으로 채무불이행이 늘고, 은행 소유 건물의 투매(fire sale)가 나올 수 있다. 주거 전환은 규제·자본 문제로 수년 걸린다. 상업용 부동산 부실이 은행·debt fund로 연쇄 전이될 위험을 경고했다. 소비 전망: 항공·호텔 수요는 여름에도 견조해 보이나 임금 상승 없이 소비자 신용잔액만 매달 증가하고 있어 우려된다. 봉쇄 이후 억눌린 계획 소비가 일시적으로 지속될 수 있다. 소비심리 논쟁: 소비자심리지수는 40년 내 최대 하락, 여론조사상 약 60%가 경침을 체감한다고 응답했다. 그러나 패널 측 일부는 심리와 실제 소비 행동 간 상관이 약하다고 반박했고, 호스트 측은 소매판매 등 데이터 이면에서 전환이 시작됐다고 봤다. 말과 실제 행동 사이에는 간극이 있다는 점이 공통 인식이다. 투자 함의: 영상은 구체적 종목 매수·매도 지시보다는 거시·부동산 리스크 경고에 초점이 있다. 주요 언급 자산은 미국 상업용 부동산 및 소비 관련 전반이며, 개별 종목 가격 목표는 제시되지 않았다. 리스크: 금리 인상이 과도할 경우 수요 파괴, 상업용 부동산 금융 부실 전이, 소비 신용 확대 지속 여부가 핵심 변수다.
다듬은 글
investors have recently been on edge after the markets suffered several crashes in the past few months trillions of dollars have been lost so where did it all go wrong join us in today's video as we hear an analysis of consumer sentiment from billionaire chamath palihapidia stick around to the end of the video as this analysis may aid you in your investing decisions you take a big step back to the day before the lockdowns started we had a normal functioning economy that was growing by call it two percent a year and the minute that we enforce these lockdowns i actually think what we did was we started a supply side recession it's what sac said earlier so what does that mean let's just say you're a factory and you make wheels okay just make something really simple you were growing at two percent a year everything seemed hunky-dory you had employees it was fine you used to sell your products make ten fifteen percent profits everything was fine and then the day after the government said you need to shut your factory down because we can't have people spending too much time close together because we need to get a handle on this pandemic okay so you shut it down and then for the next 12 or 18 months what happens that stuff sits idle these people that used to work for you get two and a half trillion dollars put into their bank accounts they spend their time doing other things and then all of a sudden people say okay it's time to start the factory up again people want to buy wheels and now all of a sudden you find that because everything all around the world was shut down there's no rubber to make the wheels there's no steel to make the axle there's no people to put them all together and so what happens well prices go up because again you gave everybody else two and a half trillion dollars so they're like well i used to pay a dollar for your wheel i'm willing to pay you two dollars now just make the wheel give it to me before you give it to somebody else so that is like the classic definition of a supply-side recession there's another piece of that too and sorry just to finish the point and the fed basically confirmed this in the minutes that they just released today jason can you just read the quote that you had in the in the notes well the one up top significant risk that elevate inflation should become entrenched if the public begins to question the resolve their result i think the point is that you know we were kind of in a supply-side recession and now by raising rates to some crazy amount the end of which we're still not sure about may actually then trigger the demand destruction to have a demand side recession and so i don't i don't know that we have lived in a modern point in time where both things have been true right there's been a principle of macroeconomics that you're everybody's always kind of debating is this a supply side issue is it a demand side issue we know that in covet it was a supply side issue we took all the supply out of the market and now we're trying to figure out when we exhaust you know all of the money we've given people and we destroyed demand and take the incentives for demand to go away right consumer confidence is now starting to turn what happens then well we're gonna figure that out in the next six or nine months but the thing is you have both that are true it's not as if the supply side of the economy has been fixed it's not as if everybody is running at 100 capacity it's not as if all the supply chain issues have been worked out yep so i don't know i just think it's a very complicated situation an amazing statistic today from uh like one of the major brokers uh they they said that by the end of the year they're expecting 30 million square feet of office vacancy 30 million in san francisco by the end of the year san francisco is tiny by the way because of sub leases and uh and then tenants rolling off so the first thing i did is i tried to google what's the total square footage in san francisco and i think it's about 75 million of office space oh my gosh 40 vacancy by the end of the year i've never heard of such a thing 40 let's be clear san francisco is fairly unique and a bit of an outlier in the circumstance because so much of it was you know tech heavy and so much of it went remote yeah and the city called everyone and it all got crime but like generally that's not the case i mean you know new york is apparently still pretty stable right and miami's obviously doing well la often but here's the piece of it that people aren't really thinking about which is the only reason it's stable is because tenants sign up for long-term leases and this is why it turns out that we work with a pretty bad business model is because if you're if all your leases are month to month and you hit a recession your revenue gets whammied this is why landlords like long-term leases with credit worthy tenants they sign seven years ten years and so on letters of credit right right putting together what that means though is that as these um tenants start to roll their leases roll over the next few years they don't need as much space because they've either gotten remote or they're like hybrid now and so they're thinking of their office less as a headquarters which everyone needs to go to and more as like a co-working space their employees occasionally go to so they're all reducing their footprints this is why san francisco keeps increasing its vacancy is that as more and more of these leases roll there's just no they don't need as much space so they're also downsizing now here's the problem here's the problem is that these buildings have debt on them right and that debt has what's called a debt service coverage ratio dscr and basically you become you as a building owner become in default on your debt covenants if your revenue from the building drops below a certain number and here's the problem all these new leases that get signed to the extent there are any they're going to be at a fraction of what the old leases were because this this vacancy is going to create a massively low market clearing price am i right to understand that they're not allowed to sign those leases because they're under it so can the landlord say that's better than nothing or do they are not allowed to take it it's not that it's just that the market clearing prices can be so much lower than their old leases that when they then look at the revenue from the building and by the way that building's gonna have a lot of vacancy on it now they're just not gonna be able to hit their their debt service coverage ratio so they'll be in default what that means is i don't understand how in a place like downtown san francisco half the buildings don't end up getting owned by the banks well the banks don't want to own all these buildings so they're going to be a fire sale but i don't know who the buyers are going to be i mean they just have to convert it right i mean that's the only thing they got to convert these to residential because we have a housing crisis still that's that's that's that's taking years and years that takes years and years and that's that's a repositioning play first you need the cooperation of the city government which isn't going to happen then you need developers to come in and have the capital to to basically make all those changes again it takes a long time but but think about the systemic risk from that right if you know that a huge chunk of the real estate in is the commercial real estate in downtown san francisco which used to be blue chip i mean the most blue chip right yes who are those financial institutions who own those assets because they are now toxic assets and they will be revealed to be toxic assets as soon as the leases roll well and then there are debt funds and banks as well right and so what are the cascading effects when those shoes start to drop everybody else is gonna you know uh roll up their sleeves and buckle down but he has no intention of doing it i think people are roughly the same way and i think their behavior is well you know if things are going to get hard i'll deal with it in the future but right now i have money in my pocket and you know if you look at airlines and how many people are trying to travel if you just look at like the cost of a hotel room if you look at what's happening this summer it does not seem like people are slowing down or tapping the brakes in any way yeah this is where i get concerned about credit because it's not coming from wage gains you know the increased cost is there the increased income is not and you know we're seeing continue month after month increases in consumer credit balances um and that i think you know this was the point i made a few episodes ago was i don't think people are going to slow down how they're living and how they're spending it's exactly um there's an inertia i don't know about that i don't know i i just think after two years of a lockdown i do think that people are anxious to re-establish some amount of normalcy and this is really the first summer where everybody writ large can be out and do the things that they were planning fake summer yeah last year was a little bit of a head fake and look you have two years of pent-up plans of you know 50th anniversaries and weddings and all of this stuff that's happening and so i think people are really spending money and if you look at it you know the the consumer is holding up amazingly it's got to be some combination of jobs home prices um and this inflation but this is why there has not been a downtick in demand i don't know why everybody thinks that there has been a downtick in demand there was an article today in numbers yet it's not showing up in the numbers yet it's very subtle okay sure it is there is a subtle i actually disagree with you guys i actually think that the economy is pivoting on a dime here and it's it's starting to show up subtly in the numbers here's some other data points consumer sentiment biggest drop in consumer sentiment in 40 years that was in the last month right track ron track polling only 10 of the country thinks we're on the right track if you poll people and ask are we in a recession something like plus 60 of the country already thinks we're in a recession there's a slight political intent to that more republicans than democrats think we're in a recession however even roughly half of democrats think we're in a recession so those are all feelings not behavior though sacks we're looking at the data not the sentiment i think the behavior will catch up with the sentiment i think the behavior is i think the behavior is pivoting it's just that i think you have to dig beneath the surface and you have to look at things like retail sales things like that i'm not sure david if you look back on all the number of times consumer sentiment is dipped that the correlation to spending patterns is so uniformly predictive as we think i mean i think that there are there's a slight positive correlation i remember but i don't think it's like you know 0.75.81 it's not that so there's this weird preference falsification that happens when you get asked what do you think is going to happen versus what do you do yeah and i think a lot of consumers that's why they have you know we know the data in america like less than a month of savings or whatever those numbers are despite all of the sentiment analysis and all of this stuff you would think that there'd be behavior change but mostly people kind of just lived in the moment and you know that that's partly because they don't have the structural support to save or other things but the reality is that most folks from what they say to what they behave there is a gap what did you guys think of the analysis from the experts of the all-in podcast do you agree with chamath regarding consumer sentiment comment ]
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