저자: 미상 · 외국인
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옵션 트레이딩 복기 영상 결론: 실적 옵션 매매 복기와 예고 없는 포지션 정리 위주이며 특정 방향 예측은 거의 없다. 스퀘어(SQ) 실적 아이언 콘도르: 시가가 평평하게 열려 0.24 크레딧으로 진입 후 0.04에 청산, 계약당 0.20 이익(5계약, 약 200달러). 이후 주가가 66.5까지 올랐으나 조기 청산이 낫다고 설명. 엔비디아(NVDA) 스트랭글: 미중 무역합의 기대로 갭업 후 250달러 투입해 381달러에 매도, 약 128달러 이익. 장중 되돌림을 피한 것을 강조. 타바(TAVA) 디빗 스프레드: 1월 만기 10/11 콜 디빗 스프레드를 보유 중이며 최대이익 150, 최대손실 40. 9달러 돌파 확인 전까지 관망하는 입장. 부킹(BKNG) 실적 전략: 여행주 급락을 반영해 1750/1950 근처 스트랭글을 1.25 크레딧으로 매도(1:1 손익비). 옵션 거래량이 극히 적어 체결 가격 주의를 강조하며 초보자 비추천. 티비아이(TVI) 실적 매매는 기대 변동폭(3.70달러)이 작아 회피. 디즈니는 실적 및 디즈니플러스 가입자 수치 불확실성으로 이번 매매 제외. 전체적으로 시장 상승/하락 방향에 대한 명확한 전망은 제시되지 않았고, 옵션 프리미엄 매도 전략과 리스크 관리(무리한 욕심 금지, 선별 매매)를 강조.
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everyone is think with us versus herd if it's your first time here you let the content hit subscribe if you want to get notifications when we go live or post videos tap the belt and if you want to join the uvh fam our community links are below in the description along with for our discord our Facebook trading group and our patreon sorry I can't be with you guys today live I actually had some appointments this afternoon so I just wanted to record a video recap my trades of what I've done today so far and that way you can kind of follow along with me I just did a booking earnings trade so I'll walk you through that but first and foremost I'll walk you through I had an earnings trade for yesterday on square and then I had a strangle on in the video I did close out square did pretty well made a hundred bucks and then Nvidia I made another 128 dollars bail walkie I'll walk you through I'll walk you through that trade so yesterday on square square head of earnings last night they did do well in earnings however the stock opened up extremely flat I had an iron Condor on square I'm show you the open so I actually got 24 cents and credit and then I bought it back for 4 cents so I made 20 cents per contract I had 5 contracts so that's how you calculate 200 bucks on it so you know it's like to suck the premium out of that pretty good but if you're taking a look here square bounce ripped right at open so close it opened flat so I was able to get out for 4 cents but it then ripped up to 66 and a half I did have I did have the 66 and a half on the call side so you know that would have been it would have been dangerous like what that trade is worth now so I bought it back for 4 cents what that trade is worth now I had this 66 and a half and I had the where did I have I had the 56 and a half in the 57th so call said we're good but or now at one point I think this was over this was back up over 20 cents because you know it's right now nine cents I bought it back for four cents uh you know did did pretty well there so that's why you know when you're when you're winning on and you're winning on a earnings trade don't try to suck it down to zero I mean I made like eighty percent on that trade so I can't I can't complain you know and and the lower it goes it's going to be harder for it to go down to one cent and it's a lot easier for that option to increase and then I'm because it opens so flat from yesterday on square like yesterday closed at like sixty one sixty one seventy one and it really opened at like 61 or 62 sixty or so like thirty cent moved that's why we were able to thankfully they did a nice premium crush it open when sometime sometimes they don't give you the premium crush right at open sometimes you have to wait 30 minutes or an hour because as you can see this started this would have this would have gone against me I would have probably paid money right now we're looking good because theta is it dropped two bucks here but those contracts would have been would have been I would have been definitely losing money once the money because it started going the money at sixty six nine six six sixty six dollars and sixty cents and I had the sixty six and a half calls so definitely glad we close it out so you don't you don't wanna be greedy on earnings trade if it goes your way just just close it out and then I closed out my Nvidia trade so today we had some good news as you guys know well most of you probably do know on the China trade deal so I don't know it's all very vague I don't really know what's going on but essentially they said the US and China has agreed to a you know take off the tariffs and phases however I don't know if that has been confirmed by the White House or not I haven't really seen too much news about it but that really helps out stocks like in video cuz NVIDIA gets a lot of revenue from China and we had a nice gap up so yesterday it was it closed around 207 seventy and this morning it opened up around 210 to ten some change so to ten and a half right down in here I had a strangle on it so I had the I had the 200 250 puts and I had the 207 50 calls so it was a very bullish skewed strangle and I put that trade on for like 250 and I sold it for 381 so we you know we made it we made a buck 30 about you know 128 so Nvidia that was nice I definitely definitely glad that I sold that it opening because as you can see it like it ripped down at 209 I'm back up to 211 like when when things are going in your favor you don't really want to plug you don't really want to play games like that you don't want to get crazy I did put on a bookings earnings trade well before we get into that actually I'll talk about taba I did have a tab of earnings trade on right now it's kind of it's kind of flat as you can see here I do have this however I do have the January 17th January 2020 expiration for this so I have a debit spread I currently have 71 days on that I have the ten calls and the eleven I'm selling the 11 call so it's a debit spread max profit on this is like 150 and my max loss is 40 bucks on this so I actually got I actually had a one contract and then yesterday I got a feel for another contract on that at fifteen cents so my original my original on taba my original fill on November 5th I I got I paid 25 cents and then yesterday I got a fill yesterday for 15 cents when went ever went down a little bit and tavaa actually try to break out today you know they had pretty good earnings dropping out a little bit but what I really need to see it I needed a hole I need to see it to hold above 9:00 but you know like I said we have we have 70 days on it not to not too concerned but you know this is a for a lower price stock you need it you need to be more conservative with the time so it's being pushed up you know looks like it's been grinding up I'm just waiting for that breakout so hopefully hopefully it happens sooner than later but like I said we have a lot of time booking so booking this is kind of a tricky trade I definitely don't recommend it for beginner traders one thing is it's a higher price stock but the other thing is the volume on the options is extremely low so when you do trade it I only trade I only sell options on it I never buy options on it because you get a very bad deal when you sell options I'm booking will kind of go through it you can calculate the pricing based on the width of the strikes and knowing if you're gonna get a good deal or not and if you put a fit if you put an order in and it doesn't get filled it's not a big deal but if it does get filled you know that you got it at the right price with the price that you wanted so you know trading stocks like it's really easy to get ripped off creating stocks like booking because the volume is just the volume is just not poor and I'll show you that order but what I want to cover real quick is right now is down 7% and the main reason for that is they do have earnings after close or one by the time you're watching this the earnings are happening right now but I had I had to take off so I put earning straight on early after it started to level off here and booking the reason why it's reacting this way before earnings is because TripAdvisor Expedia they all bombed earnings they're all having they're all having a bad time if you look up trip I mean this is down 20% Expedia Expedia down 26% and now we have booking bookings down seven so it could go down some more of course so it's down 150 points right now you know on terms of booking it could go they could go really either way so I did a neutral play on this pretty pretty safe bet you know a lot of times it looks like it possibly might be baked in at this point you know that's kind of why I chose that over Disney and some of the other ones is because Disney I'm not sure what the reports gonna say I know that they have been having early sign ups and I don't know what that Disney Plus numbers and if they're gonna reveal those numbers for the early signups or not so Disney is really much of a gamble booking since we had the other ones report and the stock is order reacting I thought that it was a pretty safe pretty safe trade now it does swing a lot I mean the higher priced could go a lot of ways but I kind of show you the trade here so booking let's go to today so I got a dollar 25 credit so let me show you what this looks like here come on just okay I just upgraded tasty works and it's like mess it up for me but booking gonna show you the curve here so you can kind of kind of see so right now I am selling premium within the expected move and mainly because it's already moved so much right now so on the put on the put side I have a little bit to show you that here so on the put side you know we're down here I'm I'm selling the 1750 put and I bought the 1740 750 put and then on the call side ret 1950 in the 1970 1950 750 strikes so let's go the table kind of show you why you know it's a it's a little dangerous here so if you look at the call side I mean this bomb was only 150 for the 1950s and then the the the 150 250 sorry is three volume of three so this terrible terrible volume like why would you put this trade on you just have to know when you're selling premium when you're getting a good price and so how do you know you're getting a good price so I got a dollar twenty five and credit and these are 250 wide strikes so the max loss in each side is gonna be 250 but then you get a dollar 25 in credit so then max loss is gonna be dollar 25 so to risk 125 dollars in losses I'm I'm getting a max profit of $125 so it's a one to one ratio is why I put this trade on and as you can see volume on these is really poor but like if you look at this trade right now is that I'm up $35 which I'm definitely not because I just put the trade on and this is where just to show you this is where new treasures get in trouble so they might just say oh I'll take the mid-price at 80 and then get filled at 80 but in right now it downloads 60 because the volume is so bad but what you can do what I did is you put in the price that you want you know you can I probably should have started at I know that when I put this trade on and I got an instant fill I put in a dollar 25 got an instant fill I probably should I like to go higher up I should start at like 1:30 and work my way down instead I started at 1:25 and got an instant fill I when I when I trade something like booking and I get an instant feel like that I never feel good about the price even though is way above mid price which mid price is saying right now is 85 or 70 and it's kind of moving all crazy as you can see down here but you know that's how that's how I trade those low volume earnings plays it really only works for me when something for me when buying premium on this it's it's too much of a gamble but when you're selling premium it's very easy to calculate because you can calculate how much profit you get and how much risk you're going to have based on the width of the strikes and if it if it turns out the numbers don't work you know don't trade it but you know for this I'll take a 1 to 1 I have a hundred point range on this so the reason why I took those strikes here is on booking so 1750 would put down here come in bounce territory which is bounced in the past and then 1950 up here which I mean it's bounced in 1950 before so it could we turn up there now that it's dropped already a hundred and fifty points I'm thinking maybe it might move 50 to 75 points additional so that would mean it'd be down you know one hundred and fifty to two to 25 or it could say or what could happen is this could be flat so we'll see we'll see after close while you guys are watching this with the numbers in so I I just want to cover this trade so you can kind of follow along with me my ideas and why I put this trade on and see if I'm gonna make money tomorrow or not on this after after this opens I mean it could rebound up to 200 and we can get screwed or it could drop through down to 1700 or we can get screwed but we'll see we'll see but since it since it's real did you know earnings is a gamble but if you do trade earnings I I like to just sell premium and beefs be selective in your earnings trades you don't want to just like do all their earnings trades possible you want to be selective and I think that booking had the best set up out of anybody you know a TV I also looked at a TV I has earnings right now they sold off today and they've really just been in this range even though they have been slowly grinding up but this could really this could really break out on a TV I so that's why I didn't rate I mean this could easily go up to 60 and and the expected move is only three dollars and seventy cents so you for an option seller you could easily get screwed on this trade just because it's been trading it's very a very tight range over the last few months and this earnings could be a catalyst for it to break out they're gonna have all those Call of Duty sales if they're gonna be reporting on so you know I don't want to buy premium going into expiration Friday and you know you want it you know going into Xpress your Friday you want to use as many things towards your advantage in one of those things as data of course so so since tomorrow's expiration know you can go further out and stuff like that but I just didn't want to take the risk with a TVI and like I said earlier with Disney Plus and Disney if that's a gamble to because it's been hanging around one-30 I mean this could really this could last earnings it did nothing the previous earnings you know it started to it ran before last earnings this earnings has really been really flat this earnings beforehand so that would I don't know since since Disney Plus launches in like five six days they could really hype that up get investors insight excited and people pile in there they could say hey we've had X amount on a million of pre signups already we haven't even launched and the stock goes crazy you know I could I could sell puts in there you know below 130 but maybe I still will I don't know but I don't have much time so so it's kind of a gamble maybe well maybe I'll sell some puts in there but right now that's kinda what I'm looking at they did they didn't do they didn't do they didn't beat earnings last quarter they missed earnings last quarter as well and they gapped down from you know 140 down to 134 for it was a $6 move the expected move today is five dollars and twenty-nine cents so for me for an option seller I feel like there's too much risk and I'll not enough reward so or you know where it could just do nothing and be flat but wait for those Disney Plus numbers to come out but I just I think running through the scenario in my head and kind of selling off right now there's not enough there's not enough a reward and the the number of risks stack up versus the reward so I'd rather just not trade it I think as traders we get into a mentality a lot of the times where we have to we feel like we always have to make a trade and sometimes the best trades are not making a trade so that's what we're doing here so yeah so I just want to follow on with me if you guys have any questions let me know what you're trading below leave a comment below let me know how you guys are doing I'll be I'll be around later today we can you know in the discord and all that you know if you like this video hit the like button definitely appreciate you guys as always stay safe stay green it's us versus hurt
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