저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 주식 3주(2016년 2월 150달러 매수)를 2018년 11월 약 314달러에 매도해 약 110% 수익을 실현했다고 설명. 매도 이유: 현재 방향성에 대해 강세도 약세도 아닌 중립이며, 장기 보유 기업으로서 사업 실행력과 현금흐름에 대한 확신이 없어졌다고 밝힘. 사업 우려: 생산 목표·공장 문제·화재 등 실행 차질이 반복되고, 머스크의 과잉 약속 문제가 지적됨. 부채 약 100억 달러, 지속적인 자금 조달 필요, 차량 판매 손실 지적. 수요·경쟁: Model 3 예약 대기 약 50만 명이지만 주당 생산량은 5,000~7,000대 수준이라 소진까지 수년 소요. 2020년경부터 메르세데스 등 고급차 브랜드의 전기차 경쟁 심화 예상. 금리·재무: 금리 상승 시 부채 상환 부담이 커지고 채권 등급도 정크본드 수준으로 언급. 주가·전략: 주가는 단기 변동성이 크고 옵션 매매(풋/콜 스프레드)로 수익 기회가 있다고 봄. 다만 장기 현물 보유는 중단하고, 사업이 개선되면 재매수를 고려할 수 있다고 함. 공매도 세력과 언론 비판에 대한 언급 포함. 개인 의견이며 투자 전 직접 조사를 권유.
다듬은 글
everyone a snake with Oscars hurt I want to go over why I sold my Tesla stock for roughly 110 percent gain is if this is your first time this channel only like this video hit the subscribe button and push that like button if you could but as you can see here on Robin Hood February 2016 I bought three shares at $150 a share and then I'm on November 16th I sold it for 314 40s so back in looking on the chart here back in November right in here right after earnings here and I just kind of want to go over why I sold it right now I'm neither bearish or bullish on Tesla at the end of the day I really just don't know and that's one of the main reasons why I sold is because they could go either way if you're looking at this chart for this year you really haven't gone anywhere this is the one year chart you know we spiked up to 389 here and and really it's just been in the range I have made of quite a bit of money just option trading options on that selling premium because as you can see here it's been a lot of great two-sided action you know there's been support here at 300 and then resistance up here at 350 which is making it very nice to trade options with but for a long-term holding stocks you know I just wasn't sure when I'm not sure where a stock is going or in terms of the in terms of the business it's time to let go when you don't understand a company anymore or you don't understand where you think the stock is going it was just time for me to take my profits and kind of re-evaluate from there now I think Tesla is an amazing company their products amazing they do have they do have the e V game on unlock however the problem has been execution you know if you look at if you look at the recent recent news for instance Tesla has been having a hard time meeting his deadlines it's had issues with their factories there's been fires with people stealing stuff they've been having a very hard time with meeting their production goals and this has been going on for a long time like Ilan has over-promised and under-delivered for last three or four years and people are kind of now calling his bluff yet the stock has been moving up and it's you know from 2:44 went up to 370 now it's back down at 290 they got earnings in a couple days and people are I mean this it's nothing new that if you look at like Tesla earnings and you look at the news we just look at Tesla in general you know day after day it's just negative news and this is nothing new I mean people have been doing this for a long time because a lot of people that don't like what he's doing and you know the big short investor is betting against Tesla Tesla's board has a PR problem now one thing I will say about seeking alpha you know take all their articles with a grain of salt cause it's just some dude with his opinion kind of like me but do your own due diligence to make sure you know it lines up don't read out dose don't read a headline and and sell your stock why Tesla stock validate how much worse can get you PU BS predicts Tesla shares will drop 30 percent in 12 months and the one major problem that maybe really sell the stock is their debt load in their cash flow right now they have 10 billion in debt they need to constantly raise cash to stay in business or to keep making their cars they've been losing money on their cars even though the cost of the batteries are going down and they have this five hundred thousand almost five hundred thousand wait list for the Model 3 and while that's good it's not good if you can't if you can't collect or you can't produce you know if you're if you're there right now I think it was they they produced five thousand a week and it's kind of weird Bloomberg has her own little tracker you know this is pretty biased when it says we built their own model to estimate weekly output of the car that could make or break a lot of most masterplan so there's a lot of people that want to fail and major media outlets wanting to fail and you know there's a lot of money GM and Ford and there's a lot of money in oil and a lot of money and a lot of different things if you really look into it and what Elon is doing is kind of granted break all that apart which is great but at the end the day you can only get so far on a dream and you need profits you need money to keep going otherwise you keep getting you're gonna you're gonna get crushed by everyone else and they've been rolling out you know almost 5,000 per week a couple a couple weeks ago a couple months ago they was last last month I pushed out this is July 1st so earlier earlier in this month July Tesla pushed out 7,000 cars last week but if you think about it but they pushed out seven thousand or five thousand cars a week you know it's gonna take them it's gonna take them a few years to get through that reservation list on top of getting people that outside of the reservation list that want one there's probably a lot of people that don't want to add their name for that just because it's Gordian take so long and you know by the time the people let's say you're part of that five hundred thousand you know by the time that you let's say next year maybe you need a car like tomorrow you need a car in six months you can't wait for the model three to drop it in so you're gonna give your money to somebody else also starting in 2020 there's going to be some strict competition for Mercedes and all the other luxury brands they have their own TV models coming out it's gonna get it's going to get tougher and tougher and the price for the Model 3 you know they said it was thirty five thousand but most of them aren't coming off they haven't started production of that base model yet so you know at the end of the day came down to cash flow you know how much how much are they generating and if they can sustain business that's that's the biggest thing right now can they stay in business can they can they push forward make meet the demand and have enough money to stay in business in right now you know for for myself I didn't want to take my put my own money at risk you know we had since I bought it here in two years ago 2016 we you know we had a nice ramp up and if you look at 2015 let's go back three years you know it was it was kind of doing the same sideways action until it really broke out and in 2017 here it really broke out you know we did have a crazy stock market so that will help but they haven't really met you know they're losing money every quarter they don't have any cash they have to they have a ten billion debt load that they need to make payments on and they're probably gonna have to take out some more loans here also as like rising interest rates come it's going to be difficult to you know handle that debt and maintain that debt because you're gonna have to make payments on that so interest rates are going to be going up and you're gonna have to make payments on that debt as interest rates adjust and I know that their their bonds are now considered like junk bond status and all that so you know for the business side if you take away the car to take away you know the dream you take away all that you know if you just look at the business itself it's not something that I wanted to invest it now keep I'll keep investing or trading options on it short-term options you know I'll still sell put spreads call spreads you know whatever the case is but for right now for the long term I'm not really looking to invest in a company that it could potentially go bankrupt and you know last week Facebook lost 20% in value and you know if they have a better earnings here I mean this stock can go ahead 50 percent you know like nothing so there's a lot of people shorting it so that's one thing you know Elon Musk has has been on Twitter you know he taunts the Schwartz especially when it goes up but he's been pretty quiet lately because he hasn't been make meeting his own deadlines and also the stock has really gone nowhere we mean we've we've had some but we've had some great opportunities so for trading if you're trading this there's some great opportunities here some really quick money on trading as you Keith's wit quick swing UPS sharp falls down so whether you're long or short or neutral this seems to be a lot of be a lot of money be made but if you're if you're just buying the stock outright it's not something that I really wanted time and money up and I wanted to I wanted to put my money to to better use in that case so you know maybe when Tesla becomes profitable and if they get over this hump and they they start they start generating money and the business starts doing what what better you know you can always buy the stock back there's no problem with that you can't you know I'm probably not gonna get $150 a share ever again but you know if the company starts doing better if I mean unless it goes cuts in half of course but if the company starts doing better and you know things are looking better for them you know I definitely wouldn't mind buying the stock again so of course this is just my opinion you know do your own research before you invest any money I'm just I'm just laying out why I sold my stock you know I didn't own a la stock I just had I had three shares but you know that that doubled and it wasn't nice return in terms of you know the the the percentage return in about a year and a half so you know I definitely wanted to invest longer I was I was thinking the five to 10-year plan but the business is looking very unsustainable right now and as you can see the stock price is showing that a lot of tremors in here so now if you have questions or if you're if you're invested or you're trading this definitely want to know your opinion leave a comment below please like and subscribe to this channel
Comments 0