저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
HubSpot 실적은 좋았지만 클라우드 소프트웨어 주가는 '좋은 분기'에도 하락하는 구조로, 전반적으로 보유하기 어렵다는 결론. 실적 요약: 분기 EPS 0.32달러로 컨센서스 0.24달러 상회, 매출·이익 가이던스 상향 발표. 그럼에도 주가는 약 6달러 하락해 145달러 부근까지 밀림. 3개월 전 200달러 이상에서 급락. 주가 부진 원인: 33% 성장률이 '좋지만 더 높을 수 있었다'는 경영진 설명, 연초 채용 지연, 3월 대규모 장애(outage)로 고객 영향 발생. 이로 인해 하반기 가이던스가 기대에 못 미침. 시장 환경: 클라우드 주식은 현재 유행에서 밀려나 있어 조금의 흠에도 매도되는 분위기. 실적이 좋아도 주가가 오르지 않음. 사업 구조 평가: HubSpot은 중소기업 대상 디지털 마케팅 플랫폼으로, 유사 경쟁사가 10여 곳 이상 존재해 차별성이 약함. 모멘텀 투자자들은 실적 실망 시 경쟁사로 쉽게 이동 가능. 밸류에이션 비교: HubSpot은 내년 이익 대비 약 89배, Adobe는 약 30배 수준으로 상대적으로 저평가. Salesforce, Zendesk, RingCentral, 59 등 대안 종목 언급 (59는 실적 발표 후 주가 약 9% 상승). 출연자 전망: 클라우드 소프트웨어 주식 전반이 공급 과잉(glut) 상태이며, 모멘텀 자금이 빠지는 한 HubSpot을 포함해 대부분 보유 매력이 낮다고 판단. 포트폴리오에 담을 필요가 없다는 입장. 리스크: 모멘텀 자금 이탈, 장애 이슈 재발, 채용 및 영업 인력 확충 지연.
다듬은 글
when will this market stop punishing the cloud stocks lately it feels like nothing these companies can do is enough for this market if they report a good quarter nobody cares if they actually miss numbers then they're toast consider the case of HubSpot the cloud-based digital marketing platform that we've been mentioned a few times before hava spots been one of the standout performers of the year two years ago the stock was at 83 bucks less than three months ago it was north of 200 but going to the quarter last night and it already sunk to 151 and today well it's got feeding down to one hundred and forty five dollars a cup a different party terrific quarter last night helped us pot beat expectations are pretty much every single line that includes Ernie's where they made 32 cents per share they actually have Ernie's when Wall Street was only looking for twenty four cents better yet management raises forecast for both the top and bottom line three months ago before the cloud sauce went out of style this would have been a picture-perfect quarter and the stock would have shot higher rather than going down six bucks these days the cloud stocks are no longer fashionable so investors look for even the slightest imperfections to give themselves an excuse itself and on the cops go see your Brian Halligan gave you just what he admitted to gave you just what you didn't want here he gave you disappointment quote I feel like we had a really solid quarter here 33% growth was really good really solid it could have been higher and the reason wasn't higher wasn't macro hmm oh that doesn't sound good how goes one quote I think the reason it wasn't Meyer was more execution on our side earlier in the year hiring we fell behind hiring and that's rippling fruit and quote ouch it gets worse how does one quote the other thing is just we had an outage back in March and that outage was kind of a big deal like we talked to a lot of customers about it really impacted them and we take our responsibility very seriously in quote I mean that's why hub spots guidance in this quarter was weaker than expected and why it's stock got clobbered today nobody cares about the results from the outlooks disappointing why should we care about hub support I'm gonna help spot why why does this even matter I mean on I mean I bet most of you have never even heard of HubSpot told just now it's a kind of Al Fateh you only know about if you're in business with them or if you were some sort of momentum fine but there's a good reason for you to care see HubSpot helps his clients find new customers and expand these clients tend to be small medium-sized businesses SMB if you go to the company's website they're highlighted a spokesperson for the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame in Cleveland saying how Hub spots done so much to bring in new visitors Rock and Roll Hall of Fame as many things but it is not a big business which brings us to the real problem here I can think of practically a dozen outfits white HubSpot do the same thing kind of this house pot off the top my head a dozen fast-growing cloud-based marketing companies with momentum stocks each one has at least a half million smackers in sales it's explaining our marketing cap just like this one if you hire HubSpot I bet they do a great job although they did that that major outage earlier this year and that nut might not and they may not have enough salespeople you know what to get salespeople you gotta have a stock that's continuing to climb all the time but here's the question who the heck even needs something like this six billion dollar company in your portfolio after listing that conference call I know I sure don't Plus in fairness HubSpot has a horrible chart and many momentum traders the kind of money managers who might be willing to buy the stock they're also chart followers at the let's nice dispiriting conference call it's just too easy for momentum traders to dump up spot and swap into a competitor with proven management like say Adobe two days ago Dobby held an analyst meeting did favor very very bullish good guidance stock a heck of a lot cheaper selling for less than 30 times next year's earnings while HubSpot sells it for about 89 times worried you can swap into Salesforce or Zendesk or ring sensor or 5:9 which just reported terrific quarter by the way of its own sending the stock up almost nine percent sure these are very different cloud companies when it get real glandt granular but they're all part of the same turbocharged growth cohort and it's kind of like if we were playing at my diversified I'd say they're all the same thing at the end of the day we have a glut of cloud based software stocks like HubSpot and that makes them all tough to them get to that quarter who needs it definitely not you and your portfolio [
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