저자: MichaelCowan · 외국인
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결론: 진행자는 주가 하락이 아직 끝나지 않았으며 S&P500은 추가로 크게 더 떨어질 수 있다고 주장하되, 현재 주식은 공정가치 대비 아직 40% 가량 더 올라야 하므로 아직 본격 매수 시점이 아니라고 본다. [마이클 버리 경고 및 과거 사례] - 마이클 버리의 과거 예측(2000년 닷컴 버블, 2008년 주택시장, 밈주식, 가상화폐 폭락)이 맞았다고 강조하며, 최근 지수 버블 붕괴도 그 연장선이라고 주장. - 대공황·닷컴 등 큰 하락장에서도 강한 반등(데드캣 바운스)이 많았으니 일시적 반등에 속지 말라고 경고. [시장 밸류에이션과 하방 목표] - S&P500은 연초 대비 약 23.55% 하락했지만 실러 PE 28 대비 평균 16.95, 중앙값 15.87로 아직 과열 해소가 덜 됐다고 주장. - 버리 발언 인용: 바닥은 2020년 코로나 저점보다 15% 낮은 SPX 1,862 수준이 될 수 있으며 실러 PE 16, 일반 PE 9까지 갈 수 있다는 취지. - 과거 하락폭 평균은 약 33%라고 제시. [1970년대 비교 및 부채 리스크] - 1968~2008년 주요 하락장 사례 나열; 1972~1982년 S&P500 50% 이상 하락 사례 강조. - 연방 공공부채/GDP는 1970년대 약 30~35%에서 현재 124%로 약 4배 높아 금리 소폭 상승(미 10년물 5%)만으로도 부채시장에 큰 충격이 올 수 있다고 주장. - 저축률은 1970년대 12~13%에서 현재 4.4%로 급락, 신용카드 부채 급증을 소비 취약 신호로 제시. [시나리오] - 최선: 30~35% 하락. 최악(연준 금리 5~6% 인상, 침체 심화): 50~70% 폭락 가능. [개인 대응 조언] - 현금 비중을 높게 유지하고 부업·기술 향상·소액 창업으로 소득 다변화, 필수품 비축 권고. - 본격 매수는 대폭락 이후가 적기라고 주장. [출연자 전망 요약] - 진행자는 주식 하락이 깊고 길게 갈 것으로 보고 있으며, 과거 상승 과열 반등은 함정이라고 판단.
다듬은 글
Ladies and gentlemen, all the warnings and predictions Michael Burry has put out have been right and he is warning us now that the crash is only just getting started and it is going to get worse. So, in today's video, we're going to go over some of Michael Burry's predictions, but more importantly, we're going to look at history to see what happened last time when we're in this situation of high inflation and high government debt to see how bad the crash was and to give us some ideas of how bad this crash will be.
We're going to go over how overvalued the market is and I'm going to give you some buying signals or maybe some good times to buy when you can buy the real mega dip. You know, I've seen so many influencers every time it drops 1% like buy the dip, you know, go all in. They've been saying this and it only crashes lower and lower and lower.
Yes, why I have thought there may have been some buying opportunities recently, but I haven't gone all in people. I've only been buying dabbling here or there. I'm holding a majority of my cash because I think the crash is going to get much much worse and we're going to go over all of this. I've got some great data and information for you today to show again how bad it will get and when we should start buying.
So, ladies and gentlemen, let's not waste any time. Let's get straight into the news, the facts and the data. Well, I'm sure you saw this yesterday people, the Dow sunk uh 700 points dropping back below the critical level of 30,000, its lowest level in over a year and we saw the S&P 500 get absolutely hammered and look at this, it fell to 3,666 dollars and 77 cents.
Is that some kind of hidden message there for us everyone to show us how bad things are going to get and the situation we're kind of in? And for all those that thought the stock market would never enter in a bear market, well, look at this. Year-to-date, the S&P is now down 23.55% and you may think, well, this is a great buying opportunity.
Well, people, while it may seem like it's good value, remember, this is stock prices coming from extremely overvalued levels and we are not even close to fair value for stocks right now and I'll show you proof, facts, and data why. Now, Michael Burry has recently come back to Twitter with a victory dance.
The Big Short investor, Michael Burry, trumpets his success, market predictions, and deletes his Twitter profile again. Now, what you have to know about this crash is there's been lots of what we call dead cat bounces, bear market rallies, bull traps, and these are all traps, people. We've seen these short-term rallies only to be sold off much more aggressive.
And here are some tweets from Michael Burry to warn us about what might be coming. He says that dead cat bounces are the most epic. 12 of the top 20 Nasdaq one-day rallies happened during the 78% drop from the 2000's top. That's right, people. You're going to see some of the biggest one-day rallies during these huge crashes and during these bear markets.
But again, people, these are all traps. Don't be fooled. Wait until we see an actual long-term bullish trend instead of these one-day noises here. Again, it's all noise. Don't get caught up in emotions of these one-day little rallies here. Nine of the top 20 S&P 500 one-day rallies happened during the 86% drop from the 1929 top.
Again, people, that was the greatest stock market crash we have seen in modern history, the Great Depression of 1929, where the S&P 500 crashed around 86 to 89% and again, there was lots of rallies in there, even prolonged rallies. Sometimes you might see a rally over a month, two months, even longer during a bear market, but it does not mean we're out of the woods yet.
Now again, if you think this is a great buying opportunity and it's time to go in now, well, Michael Burry's got some more wisdom to share with us. Paradigm shifts, speculative peaks, the S&P 500 bottom 13% lower than the 2002's bottom in 2009. So to put it simply, what he's trying to say here is that the bottom for this crash could be 10 to 13% lower than the previous crash of 2020.
So we could have much, much lower to go, but here's even more proof. It was 17% lower than the 1998's LTCM crisis low in 2002 and 10% lower than the 1970s low in 1975. And for those wanting to know how low this crash could go, he's saying here 15% lower than the COVID low is SPX 1,862 and a Shiller PE of 16 and a normal PE of nine.
And this is of course going off the historic range. Now, past performance is no guarantee for future performance, but we can often learn from history and that is the best way for us to try to predict, even though we can't always predict accurately 100% of the time, what may happen in the future. Now, it's funny because during the bull run people said Michael Burry is a broken clock.
All he does is predict doom and gloom and he's never right. People, he's been right more than once. He didn't just predict the 2008 housing market crash. He did predict the 2000 dot-com bubble. He predicted the speculative meme stock frenzy. He predicted that cryptocurrency was far too over-leveraged with these stablecoin lending, with all these Ponzi cryptocurrencies.
And he did predict the cryptocurrency crash as well. And his most recent prediction that didn't come true until now is the index bubble. He said the indexes are in a bubble and the indexes like the S&P 500, the Dow, the Nasdaq, etc. are going to crash, which is what's happening now. But people, this is just the tip of the iceberg and I've been doing more and more research.
I've been researching like crazy to learn from history to show us how bad things will really get and to give us more proof, to give us more confidence to know when is the right time to buy. Because people may think I'm a permabear, I'm all doom and gloom. People, I'm not a permabear. I've been investing for the past 12 years.
I love investing, but the thing is during the past two years, the reason why I came out and started making these YouTube videos was because I saw such crazy, irresponsible speculation. And I tried to warn people, I tried to help people. Unfortunately, many people didn't listen and now they've lost 70, 80%.
The people that have been investing in these meme stocks and the people that have been investing in these altcoins and these Ponzi cryptocurrencies. But I am getting very, very excited because I do think some great opportunities are going to be coming. So, let's have a deeper look, everyone. Now, what do people keep comparing this time to?
They keep comparing today's time to the 1970s stagflation period, where we had weak economic growth and what will be coming high unemployment, and we had high inflation, which is stagflation. So, what exactly did happen to the markets in the '70s? What can we learn from the '70s to predict how bad the stock market crash will get and when will be the right time to buy?
Well, what we can learn from history here is in 1968, the S&P 500 declined 36%, but we saw a huge crash in 1973 of 48%. Then we can see the other recent crashes of 27% in the 1980, we saw Black Monday 1987 down 33%. There was a slight one in the '90s of 19%. Now, more recently the 2000s, we saw an S&P decline of 49% and the most recent really bad financial crisis of 2008, we saw the S&P 500 crash 56% and then the COVID 2020 crash of 33%.
So, when you take out the averages here, the average crash has been around 33% after we've entered in a bear market. So, even why stocks look like a discount right now down 23%, we aren't anywhere close to fair value. And I've got even more proof and data to show you. Because another chart here of the S&P 500 around the '70s here, people, we can see in 1972 the S&P 500 was 811 points and it crashed all the way down to 330 points.
This is a decline of more than 50%. So, again, 1973 we saw a decline of 48%. From 1972 to 1982, we saw a decline of greater than 50%. Now, you may think, "Well, okay, you know, 50% that's pretty bad, but it's not really catastrophic like, you know, some doomsday predictions have been predicting of a 75 to 85% market crash." But, you know what really worries me and what is actually the situation we are in right now that is actually much, much worse than the 70s.
That's right. That is how much debt we in. And people, we are in magnitudes much more debt than we were in the 70s. And again, this is not just speculation. Let me show you the proof, the facts, and the data how much debt we really in and why this could actually be much, much worse than the 70s crash.
Now, look at this chart. This is the federal debt, total public debt as a percentage of gross domestic product, GDP. Now, what was it in the 70s? Well, we can see in the 70s it was actually around 35 to 30% uh of debt to GDP. Now, where are we today? Look at this, people. We can see here debt exploded in the 90s and that's when we had the 2000.com crash and it was around 65%.
Then we saw the huge debt explosion uh before 2008 where debt to GDP hit 100%. Now, look where we are today. We are at a public debt of 124% of GDP. This is four times higher more debt than we were in the 70s. That's right, everyone. The public debt to GDP is four times higher than it was in the 70s.
So, the reason why we have to know this is because many people are saying, "Well, look, there's no way we're going to get interest rates to 19% like they were in the 70s." And yes, I agree. There's no way the Federal Reserve is going to lift interest rates to 19% but here's the thing. Debt is four times higher than it was in the 70s.
So, it's not going to take interest rates to go to 19% like they were in the 70s for us to have a huge debt crisis. It's only going to take 25% of what interest rates were for us to have the same effect. So, what is that? 5% interest rates. If we hit 5% on the 10-year US Treasury, we're going to see real, real pain in the debt markets.
Now, another lie the central banks keep telling us is, "Don't worry. The consumers' balance sheet are in great shape and the consumer is in great shape." I don't know what kind of consumers they are looking at. The real consumers, the middle class, or their central bank of buddies and their million-dollar salaries.
Yes, maybe things are fine for them, but for the average American, it is far, far worse. So, what was the savings rate in the '70s and what is the savings rate now? Well, look at this. The average savings rate in the '70s was around 12 to 13% and in 1975, it hit a peak of around 17%. So, where is the savings rate now?
That's right. We're seeing the savings rate completely collapse from 2020 and 2021 of around 25%, it has collapsed to 4.4% and declining rapidly. And why is this happening? It's because of rampant inflation. People are having to tap into their savings to keep up with a rising cost of living. They're spending their whole paycheck, they're diving into their savings, and we're also seeing credit card debt skyrocket to record levels.
And central banks are taking this as a good thing. They're saying, "Look, it's so great. Consumers are strong because they're piling on mountains and mountains of credit card debt." No, people, this is a dire dire warning to show us that consumers are forced to take on debt to keep up with a rising cost of living.
Now, the problem with that is eventually the credit cards get maxed out. Eventually, people's bank accounts come to zero, and eventually, the consumer is going to break. And this is going to lead to a much, much worse crisis than stocks falling. We're going to see breadlines of the Great Depression come back.
We're going to see crime explode. When people's families are hungry, they're going to do things they thought they never could do before. This is not me trying to be doom and gloom, people. I take no pleasure in saying this, but I'm trying to warn people. I want you to be scared because if you are not scared, you are not going to do anything.
And I've been trying to warn people for 2 years now. I've been begging people to listen about this crisis that is going to come. It doesn't bring me pleasure saying this, people. I got family and friends that are going to be hurt significantly because of this depression. And this depression has been created by the central banks.
They're taking no accountability. No one's going to go to jail. No one's going to be held accountable for this crisis that's coming. It's affecting me, it's affecting my loved ones. People, please listen. Please listen now, prepare now. Time is running out. It's going to get much, much worse, people, again.
I don't take pleasure in saying this, but I'm begging you from the bottom of my heart, please prepare now. One last chart to show you people before I sign off because I'm starting to get a bit emotional here. The Schiller PE ratio, right now it is at 28. So, again, you may think stocks are fair value, but look at this, the mean is 16.95.
The median is 15.87. We still have at least another 40% climb to go for stocks to come to fair value. Now, let me show you a couple more articles to show you that yes, I'm showing facts statistics here, but this is how it's really hurting people and it's affecting real Americans, real families. And this again, this is not just happening in America, this is a global crisis.
We are heading to a global depression here. Food stamps, credit card debt, record inflation forces some older Americans to make tough financial choices. Again, people, look beyond the headlines. Look beyond the numbers here. This is affecting real retirees. We're about to see a huge amount of the baby boomers retire.
But, you know what's going to happen? Their savings that they've saved for 40 years, they've been working 40 years, their whole lives. I've got a lot of older viewers that are watching here, and they're watching their savings, they're watching their 401ks, their superannuation, what we call here in Australia, evaporate.
And while we just think of money as digits on a screen, when you really get to it, the real core of money is it is energy. It is people's energy, it is people's time here they spend on Earth, it is years of their life. Remember, a year of this retirement savings is a year of their life to work for that, okay?
It is not just digits on a screen, it is time that they are losing money. This money they're losing is time they're losing that they're never going to get back. And yes, while I do hope the market recovers in a year, two years, five years, unfortunately what we learn from history is the markets may not recover for a decade, two decades.
The reason because of this, every crash before, the central bankers have had low inflation, so they've been able to stimulate the markets, they've been able to print money again, drop interest rates lower. Well, they've been dropping interest rates lower and lower for the past four decades now and they can't drop interest rates lower anymore.
So, I don't think we're going to see a quick recovery. And what a lot of these young YouTubers say, well, don't worry, you know, as long as you invest in 10 years, 20 years, eventually the market will recover. Well, these retirees don't have 10 or 20 years for their funds to recover. They have to sell off some of their assets to keep up with the rising cost of living.
Not just this, even some of the upper middle class are starting to be affected now. Amid record inflation, 36% of employees earning more than 100,000 say they're living paycheck to paycheck. Now, I know what some of you may think, they may think, look, if I earned 100,000, I would be fine. And yes, you may be fine.
Fortunately, for some of these people, they will be able to cut back some of their luxuries they're probably spending on. Maybe they took on too much debt. Maybe they bought that dream home. Maybe they bought that luxury car. Maybe they went on a bit too many holidays. Maybe they just spent too much on their credit cards than they should have.
So, maybe they can cut back. But people, this inflation is starting to affect everyone. So, okay, I know what you're thinking, what does all this economic jargon, all this data mean for you in simple terms? Well, what this means is when we study history, we can see the average decline in the S&P 500 during a bear market is 35%.
But this is not a normal time in history. This is a time of stagflation. Now, when we go to the '70s, we can see the market dropped around 50%. But again, debt was much, much lower then, 40% of GDP is now 120% of GDP. So, I think what could be the best and worst case scenario here. Now, again, people, I'm not always going to be right.
I'm just a guy here on YouTube doing research, trying to warn people. You know, I'm not the best economist in the world, but from doing my research, what I think could be the best case scenario is of a decline of 30 to 35%. Now, the worst case scenario could be is if we do see a painful recession like we saw in the '70s and if the Federal Reserve keeps hiking interest rates to 5 to 6% because remember, there's no way they're going to be able to stop inflation with 4% interest rates.
They're saying that is above neutral. To be above neutral, we need to be above inflation. So, we need to be above 8%. If they go there, we will see a decline, a mega crash. We will see a great depression, and we would see stocks fall anywhere between 50 and 70%. So, again, please don't take this as doom and gloom.
I'm generally trying to be there to help you guys to show what could possibly happen. Please start preparing now. Start saving money. Find ways to diversify income. Find ways to start a side hustle cuz there could be high chances that you could be laid off in the future if we do enter a depression. Increase your skills.
Become one of the essential peoples at your company. Even better, start a business, work for yourself. A business that doesn't take a lot of capital to start. A business that you could do for under $1,000. I can't tell you what business to do because everyone has different skills, but figure out a skill set you have, a way you can start a business with little low capital, and what you can do on the side from your job so you don't have to take much risk.
Like I said, buy food. Prepare by buying the essentials that you need every day. So, if you do lose your job, you have the essentials there. And the silver lining here is, people, we need this crash. The markets have been so overvalued. This is a great deleveraging we need. We need all these zombie companies to collapse.
We need opportunities to come there for new people that want to buy a home, to get a home that's affordable. And this crashing the stock market will create much greater buying opportunities ahead. So, from the bottom of my heart, thanks for watching. I love you all. I'll see you all in the next video.
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