저자: MichaelCowan · 외국인
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결론: 중앙은행이 인플레이션 방치 또는 금리 인상 중 어느 쪽을 택해도 증시·주택시장 대폭락이 불가피하니 지금은 FOMO를 경계해야 한다. [레이 달리오 경고 인용] - 중앙은행이 과도한 레버리지 속에서 하이퍼인플레이션 또는 금리 급등 중 하나를 택해야 하며 둘 다 시장 붕괴로 이어진다. - 금리 1% 상승만으로도 큰 폭락이 올 수 있다는 취지. 채권 수익률은 물가 대비 마이너스이며 해외 투자자의 채권 매도 위험이 크다. [통화정책·부채 사이클] - 40년 부채 사이클 말기로 보며, 정부 부채를 중앙은행이 화폐화(monetization)하는 것을 후반 사이클 신호로 본다. - 금리 인하로 부채 상환 여력을 늘려온 구조가 금리가 바닥인 지금은 한계에 달했다는 주장. - 중앙은행이 인플레이션을 용인하려 하고 있으며, 실제 물가는 공식 2~3%보다 훨씬 높다고 주장(전기료·주거비·임대료·식료품 인용). [주택시장] - 금리 1% 하락이 주택가격을 10% 가량 올렸으며, 금리가 2022년 무렵 오르면 주택가격 하락이 빨리 올 수 있다고 봄. - 뉴질랜드의 투자자 세제 혜택 폐지 사례처럼 정치권의 세제 변화(네거티브 기어링 폐지 등)가 주택 가격 하락 요인이 될 수 있다고 언급. [증시] - 신규 개미 투자자의 단기 매매와 높은 신용(마진) 레버리지가 금융 불안정을 키운다고 지적. - 대공황 직전 구두닦이 소년의 주식 이야기 일화를 들어, 일반인의 투자 열풍을 정점 신호로 해석. [투자 조언] - 현금은 인플레이션에 의해 구매력이 실질적으로 감소하므로 피해야 함. - 자산·국가·통화 분산 투자 권고. 진행자는 비트코인, 귀금속, 경기방어주, 자가 주택 보유 등으로 분산 중이라고 밝힘. - 자막상 '하이퍼인플레이션'과 금리 급등 모두 시장 붕괴 시나리오라는 점이 핵심.
다듬은 글
I have some bad news and then I have some worse news the central banks around the world have messed up and have messed up big and they now only have two choices let inflation run hot which could lead to hyperinflation and crash the markets or start raising interest rates which is also going to crash the markets because the markets are so over leveraged right now that even a one percent rise in interest rates will lead to a huge crash in this video I'm going to be going over Ray dalio's warning and if you don't know Ray dalio he's one of the best and brightest investors of our time he too is also warning that the central banks and the Federal Reserve have stuffed up big and there's either going to be monetary hyperinflation or you're going to have to raise interest rates to cool inflation but either way the markets are going to crash and a big crash is coming I'm also going to go over The Narrative of central banks how they keep saying look we just want inflation to run hot because then that's going to lift unemployment and that's going to boost the economy and we just want to help out the little guy that's a complete lie the people at the bottom get the money lasts and they get the crumbs while billionaires around the world have almost doubled their wealth since the pandemic began so this shows all these bailouts all this stimulus it just goes to the top it goes to the one percent and asks the people at the bottom get the scraps I'm also going to go over how it's going to affect the housing market and new trends in the housing market and how this is going to affect the stock market I'll go over what this means for you and what we can do right now to prepare because many people are complacent in the markets right now in the stock market you've got all these new rookie retail investors that have put money in and they've made huge returns and they think look if a stock doesn't go up 10 in three days they're going to sell it and so all these retail investors they call them paper handers which means they sell very quickly as soon as just a little hint of a crash comes they're all going to sell because they're not veteran investors and they're not long-term investors they're just people that want instant gratification and this is leading to huge financial instability because margin is so high in the stock market and debt to incomes have never been great data in the housing market what we've seen this go around is the need to distribute to produce a lot of debt where did those checks come from they came from the the government the government wrote the checks but the government can't produce money the central bank can produce money so they uh the central bank had got had to print a lot of money to lend to the government um to do that and that's monetization when you get at the late part of that cycle where you're creating a lot more debt and then you're monetizing it that's the end of a that's near the end of a long-term debt cycle and that produces its own set of problems okay so as you can see the first part of this interview with Ray day which I think is absolutely brilliant and what I've been thinking all along is we're getting at the end of this 40-year debt cycle and what that pretty much means is for the last 30 years here in Australia and in the US they've been dropping interest rates which has meant people can service more and more debt because the economy no longer relies on consumption anymore it relies on debt and people aren't spending their incomes now they're spending their future income and when you think of a Ponzi scheme a Ponzi scheme is pretty much selling at the top the benefits are the most and it's a scheme that is unsustainable and sustained that relies on more people getting into it and putting more and more money in well pretty much if you think of it simply this whole Current financial systems seem similar to a Ponzi scheme it relies on more people getting into the markets but now everyone's in the market so it now relies on debt to keep the market going but eventually everyone will get Maxi out on their debt so they need to drop interest rates so people can service more debt but now interest rates are a rock bottom so people can no longer service more debt and there's no income growth but for something that they've done for the first time in history is governments monetizing their debt with the help of central banks and what this means is a government can issue an IOU so hey I issue an IOU um a hundred dollars are out of nowhere and they can say look we'll pay you back just 0.1 interest but unfortunately nobody would buy an IU from the government for just 0.1 interest or not many people have um and even radially says he wouldn't get into bonds and he says if you're investing in bonds you're stupid and same as Goldman Sachs so what's happened now is the central bank's like okay no one wants these bonds we'll come in and buy these bonds and we'll pay whatever price so the government issues debts their Central Bank comes up and buys that debt then the government goes out and does something called fiscal stimulus where they give stimulus checks they build more infrastructure they create all these schemes and we're getting pretty close to something called Universal basic income which means soon there's going to be so much organization of the workforce so much globalization of the workforce there's going to be such high inflation that people simply aren't just going to be able to live orders won't have the income or won't have the jobs um to sustain their lives so what's going to happen is the governments are going to have to have a universal basic income payment and to fund that they'll just keep creating more and more debt let the central banks buy that debt from the government and then they're going to create high inflation which could lead to hyperinflation to devalue the debt which means say for example they're a trillion dollars in debt well then they'll just devote that trillion dollars to where it's worth half and that means everyone's paying more taxes it means prices go up so the government's Revenue go up the GDP goes up so they can service that debt they've now admitted in Australia and in the US there's no way at all they can repay the debt so what they need to do is inflate away the debt and grow the economy faster than the interest but unfortunately throughout history there's been many many things called Fiat currencies which we have now the US dollar the Australian dollar and guess what not 50 not 75 100 of the time they have failed because governments get greedy they devote their currency to fuel their spending and eventually people lose faith in the currency and that would ultimately lead to hyperinflation not just printing of money but losing faith in the currency and I'm going to get into how this is going to affect the markets in a minute so stay with me yes I think um let's understand what's behind that um and then you can understand what the warning signs are because it's just a manifestation when there has to be a lot of selling of bonds and bonds don't give any good return there's a guaranteed negative return in bonds relative to inflation inflation index bonds yield less minus one percent and so there's no return and there's a pile of people who own bonds and this isn't just Americans but these are international investors owning bonds and they have to buy a lot more bonds because when the government has to sell a lot more debt that means they have to buy a lot more bonds there will not be enough demand for those bonds when that happens interest rates rise that's what you're seeing now and the central bank is put in a dilemma this is all classic end of cycle type of thing the central bank is put into a dilemma because either interest rates will rise a lot or they will have to print money and buy those bonds to hold them down when they print money and buy those bonds to hold right down that lowers real rates and it accelerates a depreciation of the value of the dollar and it also um Ray raises inflation pressures and what the imbalance the frightening thing about this is that if you get um losing money and people are losing money by holding bonds and that's not just Americans those are other foreigners then they could sell bonds and if they sell bonds at the same time as the government has got to sell a lot of bonds that could produce a real dilemma that's classic late long-term debt cycle type stuff and he's saying here the central banks around the world the Federal Reserve the RBA they're in a dilemma here people around the world are selling bonds yields a rising interest rates are rising but then if they go ahead and do something called yield curve control a lot of people think they're going to do then that means they're going to print way more money and this is going to lead to high inflation but then if they get higher inflation and it leads to hyperinflation then they're going to have to lift interest rates even more and for every one percent lift in interest rates house prices can fall 10 to 15 percent and the stock market can fall 10 and everyone's got a short-term memory they're thinking we'll never have rates back up to five percent again we'll never have rates up to 10 again it was really only 20 to 30 years ago that we had interest rates above 10 percent and imagine how devastating that would be for the housing market and the stock market if interest rates just went up three percent just to three percent there would be Mass defaults because people are leveraged to the T what are central banks been saying in they've never said before it's something that I think is quite suspicious they're saying come on in guys take on as much debt as you can and they've actually for the first time in history told people we're not going to lift interest rates for three four years so they're telling people how long it's going to be until they lift interest rates so the leading people in a false sense of security and just a little side note here the quote you owe nothing and you'll be happy is this how they're going to do it they're going to get everyone in on low interest debt and all of a sudden High interest rates so people lose all their assets and then the great reset happens and uh you know the global Elites own everything just a little uh side note there I wonder if that's how it's playing out who knows well as I said think of the economy as being um like an individual and a um and their pulse is dropping when the pulse is dropping the doctors come running in with the stimulant and they inject stimulant now that the economy is rebounding he's um and inflation pressures are rebounding um there's not the same pressure to administer that stimulation when it happens when it becomes a problem is first the rising interest rates start hurting financial asset prices first typically they heard bonds then they pass through and hurt stocks because still interest rates affect stocks and when that starts to affect stocks that's one thing maybe the stock market can correct 10 or 15 percent and the Federal Reserve can tolerate it when it goes beyond that and starts to affect the economy that's when you see the real trade-off have to serve surface so that's what that looks like and then he goes on to warn of there's two types of inflation there's obviously the CPI and then there's a monetary inflation and pretty much what we've seen lately is hyperinflation in asset prices because everyone's getting out of cash everyone's getting out of bonds and they're going into stocks real estate precious metals and cryptocurrencies it's not an easy thing because what do you do spend less money and if you spend less money you give less checks out or you can't get people to easily earn more money and change that so it's a difficult dilemma and it's a particularly difficult dilemma that I think that you're going to see particularly the part is the late this year and beyond that because late this year you're probably going to see um everything um be a problem um you're going to probably see higher interest rates um because growth will be stronger inflation will be stronger and that you'll see probably there won't be enough Demand on it so the thing to watch out for is a signal if this happens is that you see the need to buy uh bonds when the economy is strong and when inflation if you take um there's this year and then there's Beyond this year there's um and there's the next few years um it's a problem because how we're going to spend money as a political issue a big political issue and we're going to have to SP and there's going to be too much spending and so that'll affect the value of the dollar and or interest rates so the pretty simple radio pretty much says the banks are stuffed up and they're stuffed up big the central banks that is around the world in Australia the US Canada UK and we're pretty much going to lead to a crash either way either we're going to get high inflation hyperinflation or they're going to have to raise interest rates or bond yield rates are going to Skyrocket which is going to crash the markets as well and central banks around the world now are admitting hey we want inflation we want higher inflation when they're pretty much never said that before they've all said they want to be in their two to three percent range but they're now saying we're going to go over that but it's okay it's only temporary but they can manipulate the numbers all they want even if they come and say oh we tried to get three percent inflation but it's only 2 I know and you all know everyone in the comment section knows that the CPI is CP lie they can fudge the numbers mix the numbers around any way they want to make it look to give the number that they want to put out there but I think inflation is minimum five percent look at electricity prices look at housing costs look at rents I look at Insurance groceries Commodities they're all going up much faster than two to three percent per year and the RBA has come out and said to Josh freidenberg and Scott Morrison hey we can get inflation even lower to four percent maybe even below that even the threes so keep on printing money keep on giving fiscaler stimulus keep on pumping up those zombie companies and in Australia guess what many companies made huge profits in 2020 and they got job keeper as well they got billions and billions and dollars of our money our tax money even though they earn huge profits and they gave that to shareholders and one thing you have to know why the housing market is booming so much right now is because they're such a sharp drop in interest rates interest rates dropped around around the world around one percent so the housing markets are now pricing that in and house prices can rise 10 when interest rates drop one percent but now they're getting close to pricing that in and interest rates are rising so we could see the housing market slow down very quickly and if interest rates rise in 2022 we could start to see house prices dropping as early as 2022.
this also goes along with in New Zealand they've actually scrapped the tax benefits for investors uh they could claim interest on investing properties and there's going to be a lot of calls in politics and politicians for this moral hazard they're going to start wanting it in other countries like in Australia in the US they may start to Lobby to say hey house is getting too unaffordable let's punish these investors let's remove negative gearing let's remove all these tax benefits for claiming interest I'm on loans and that may be another risk for the housing market is political changes and tax changes to drop prices so guys I urge you don't fomo in right now we're in Euphoria we're at the end of the debt cycle according to Ray dalio the central banks uh in a bad bad position they're either going to have to let inflation run hot which could lead to hyperinflation or they're going to have to lift interest rates and either way each Road leads down to a huge market crash and we're really in the eye of the storm I think right now all the retail investors are in everybody's in the markets and that's when we're normally at the end of the market and there was a quote from a great investor just before the Great Depression stock market crash where a shoe shine boy was shining um the guy the stockbrokers shoes and he started talking to him about stocks and the investor was like okay the shoeshine boy is talking about stocks now it's time to get out and have you guys noticed that your friends at the barbecue all these people that don't invest or don't know much about the markets or don't normally get in the housing market or invest in property everyone's talking about investing right now everyone's talking about the stock market the housing market all these retails that normally wouldn't and that's a sign that we're at the peak and a big crash is coming just like the quote from the Great Depression when the shoe shine boy was talking about socks but you're probably wondering okay a big crash is coming well what can we do so Ray you're recognized as one of the great investors of our age so give us some investment advice here given what your analysis of how this works what's going to happen given where what we're doing right now what's the best investment we heard Jamie dimon just recently say he wouldn't touch a 10-year treasury bond with a 10-foot pole well I wouldn't touch it to your treasury pile but then you fold it either um cash is trash Oh no other words you it looks like a low risk thing to hold but it's not because when you because when you have a zero interest rate or in some case in foreign countries slightly negative interest rate and you have an inflation rate of two percent or higher you get taxed that a rate essentially you lose buying power at a rate of about two percent a year and that's a lot you lose a lot of buying power and so this is one of those environments you don't want to hold cash if anything maybe you bought borrow some cash and find something that has better than a zero interest rate in it or that or something that has inflation if you bought the average thing which is inflation inflating at two percent or more a year you'd be better off however you uh so then the other thing you need to do is diversify well okay so don't have cash and then you need diversification and the diversification should be currency diversification come country diversification as well as asset class diversification well what Ray dalio said and what I agree with is you want to diversify you don't want to be all in on stocks you don't want to be on real estate you don't even want to be all in on gold there's a lot of doomsdays that say I go all in on gold or Bitcoin but really you want to be Diversified you want to have multiple assets you know you want to be in either again this is not Financial advice just what I'm doing is I'm diversifying into Bitcoin precious metals stocks defensive stocks that are going to do well in a recession I've already got my own home so I'm Diversified into real estate and that's what I'm doing to prepare and even you want to be Diversified across countries who said you can even have different currencies I'm not really into that type of thing but if you are you could do that and he also says you can be in different markets not just the US market you mean Asia Market or other countries markets for all my loyal viewers and subscribers still watching you're awesome if you haven't already please tap that like And subscribe button I'll keep you all update on the latest housing market stock market and Global Finance news I'll pop up some other videos here I'll see you there
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