A Market Collapse Will STOP Inflation! | Bill Ackman's Theory

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결론: 빌 애크먼은 인플레이션이 연준의 공격적 금리인상이나 시장 붕괴(경기침체·수요파괴)로만 진정될 수 있다고 보며, 구조적으로 높은 인플레이션이 장기간 지속될 것으로 전망한다. 시장 붕괴와 인플레이션 관계: 애크먼은 연준이 인플레이션을 잡지 못하면 시장이 대신 그 역할을 하게 된다고 주장했다. 2022년 시장 조정은 연준의 인플레이션 억제 능력에 대한 투자자 신뢰 부족에서 비롯됐다는 분석이다. 연준 금리 정책: 연준은 올해 6차례 금리를 올렸고, 6월~11월 사이 75bp 인상이 4번 이어졌다. 기준금리 범위는 3.75~4%로 2008년 이후 최고 수준이며, 추가 인상이 예상된다. 애크먼은 연준이 중립금리까지 올리고 인플레이션이 잡힐 때까지 긴축을 지속해야 한다고 봤다. 인플레이션 지표: 6월 소비자물가 상승률은 40년래 최고치인 9.1%였고, 10월에는 7.7%로 완화됐다. 다만 여전히 높은 수준이다. 시장 전망 및 조건: 시장은 투자자들이 인플레이션 시대의 종말을 확신하는 순간 급등할 것이라고 봤다. S&P500은 연초 대비 약 18% 하락했고, 지난주 약세장(베어마켓) 영역에 잠시 진입했다. 금리 상승은 기업의 미래 현금흐름 가치를 낮춰 주가 밸류에이션을 압박한다. 구조적 리스크: 블랙록 투자연구소(Gene Frieda팀)는 인플레이션 압력이 서비스에서 재화로의 지출 이동, 팬데믹·우크라이나 전쟁·중국 봉쇄에 따른 생산 제약에서 비롯된다고 보며 중앙은행이 이를 해결할 수 없다고 주장했다. 애크먼 역시 공급망 리쇼어링, 글로벌 임금 상승, 탈세계화, 대체에너지 전환이 인플레이션을 지속적으로 높인다고 봤다. 그는 연준이 2% 목표에 안정적으로 복귀하기 어렵다고 전망했다. 애크먼의 과거 이력: 2020년 3월 코로나 확산 당시 CNBC에서 경고하며 시장 하락에 베팅해 약 20억 달러를 벌었다고 언급됐다. 올해 초에는 연준의 공격적 긴축을 지지했고 7월에는 1%p 인상을 주장했다. 자산별 예측: 영상에서 삼성전자, 비트코인, 엔비디아 등 개별 자산에 대한 구체적 가격 방향 발언은 확인되지 않음. 시장 전반(S&P500)에 대해서는 인플레이션 해소 전까지 부진, 해소 확신 시 급등 가능성을 언급. 리스크: 금리 인상 장기화, 공급망 재편에 따른 비용 상승, 인플레이션 구조적 고착화, 경기침체 가능성.

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01. a market collapse will stop inflation Bill ackman's Theory hey guys today we're going to talk about how a market collapse will stop inflation by Bill ackman's Theory let's get right into it Bill Ackman the billionaire hedge fund manager believes that raging inflation will only subside if the Federal Reserve acts more aggressively or the market sell off turns into a full-fledged collapse achman said in a slew of tweets there is no Prospect for a material reduction in inflation unless the FED aggressively raises rates or the stock market crashes catalyzing an economic collapse and demand destruction the perishing Square hedge fund manager attributed the 2022 Market correction to investors lack of confidence in the central bank's ability to contain inflation at a 40-year high he believes the market turmoil will end only when the FED draws a line in the sand on Rising prices Ackman added If the Fed doesn't do its job the market will do the fed's job and that is what is happening now he then said the only way to stop today's raging inflation is with aggressive monetary tightening or with a UPS in the economy the market has plummeted this year as the federal reserve's tightening measures to combat inflation have fueled fears of a recession the Central Bank raised its key interest rate by half a percentage Point earlier this month its most aggressive move to date in 2022 the S P 500 is down about 18 and the equity Benchmark briefly entered bear Market territory last week however Ackman believes that at this point investors will cheer the FED raising rate more quickly because inflation is out of control Ackman said markets will soar once investors can be confident that the days of runaway inflation are over let's hope the FED gets it right according to the hedge fund manager the FED should show its seriousness by raising rates to neutral and committing to continue raising borrowing costs until the inflation Genie is back in the bottle similar 50 basis point rate increases are expected at the fed's next few meetings the current Target rate is 0.75 percent to one percent during the height of the covet pandemic in March 2020 Ackman warned on CNBC that hell is coming and pleaded with the White House to shut down the country for a month he made two billion dollars at the time by betting against the market however Ackman who supported aggressive fed action earlier this year and called for a full percentage Point hike in July believes geopolitical factors will keep inflation persistently High even as policymakers carry out their most combative round of rate hikes in decades he said supply chain risks that people have become extremely experienced with in the last year or so have made nearly every U.S CEO rethink outsourced or distant Supply chains he then added a lot more of that is going to come closer to home and it is more expensive to do business here Rising Global wages the transition to Alternative Energy deglobalization and a shift to domestic sourcing and production according to akman will all weigh on the fed's ability to control inflation fed officials raised their key Benchmark interest rate six times this year including four consecutive 75 basis point increases between June and November the FED funds rate has risen to a new range of 3.75 to 4 its highest level since 2008 with further increases expected despite the federal reserve's efforts to keep prices under control inflation eased slightly in October from the previous month to 7.7 on an annual basis ackman's comments reflect the growing consensus among Wall Street strategists the fed's efforts to cool demand will not address long-term macroeconomic shifts such as rising real rates labor shortages and permanent changes to the global supply chain earlier this year blackrock's investment Institute argued that inflationary pressures were triggered by a broader shift in spending from services to Goods as well as production constraints caused by the pandemic Ukraine's war and China's covert lockdowns a team led by Gene boiven head of BlackRock investment Institute said in September central banks can't fix these constraints in our view hence a brutal trade-off trigger a deep recession by hiking rates or live with more persistent inflation the team then added the fed's forecasts don't acknowledge this trade-off Bill Ackman also expects inflation and interest rates to remain elevated for years darkening the outlook for stocks he said on a third quarter call with investors in his perishing Square hedge fund we think inflation is going to be structurally higher going forward than it has been historically he then added we do not believe that it's likely the Federal Reserve is going to be able to get inflation back to a kind of consistent two percent level in June inflation reached a 40-year high of 9.1 percent but remained at 7.7 percent in October the FED has responded by raising interest rates from near zero in March to a range of 3.75 to 4 today with the possibility of exceeding 5 for the first time since 2007 however Ackman believes that markets are overly optimistic about the inflation threat dissipating and rates falling he pointed out that higher interest rates reduce the value of companies future cash flows which could weigh on stock valuations the billionaire investor based his inflation forecast on his prediction that America companies will unsure more of their production after suffering supply chain disruptions during the pandemic if this occurs they will almost certainly pass on higher labor rent and raw material cost to customers in the form of higher prices thereby fueling inflation