저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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결론: 그랜섬은 미국 주식이 거대한 버블 상태이며 2023년 경기침체보다 훨씬 나쁜 하락이 올 수 있다고 보고, 미국 주식 비중을 줄이고 현금·신흥국·저평가 자산으로 분산할 것을 권한다. 시장 버블 진단: 미국 주식은 1900년대 들어 거의 없던 수준의 투기적 버블 상태이며, 실러 PER 29.9는 1929년 대폭락 직전 수준에 근접했다고 설명한다. 버블 붕괴 근거: 과도한 저금리와 유동성이 버블을 키웠고, 금리 인상과 악화되는 경제·금융 여건이 겹치면 버블이 터질 것이라고 주장한다. 주식시장이 절반 폭락할 수 있다고 했으나 시기는 명시하지 않았다. 경제 펀더멘털: 중국 보건 위기, 유럽 분쟁, 식량·에너지 부족, 재정 긴축 등으로 상황이 예상보다 훨씬 악화됐다고 평가하며 경기침체 가능성을 높게 본다. 기업 실적 전망: 모건스탠리 마이크 윌슨이 2023년 S&P500 주당순이익 전망을 10% 하향했다는 점을 들어 실적 하향 흐름을 언급한다. 장기 기대수익률: 7년 기준 물가 조정 예측에서 미국 대형주는 연 2.2% 물가 대비 부진할 것으로 전망하고, 채권은 더 나쁘며 해외주식·신흥국은 상대적으로 낫다고 본다. 포트폴리오 전략: 현금 비중 확대, 주식 베타 축소, 채권 만기 조정, 원자재·인플레이션 헤지 확대를 권하고, 손실 종목 매도를 통한 세금 절감도 언급한다. 실행 원칙: 시장 바닥에 대한 언론 추측을 맹신하지 말고 투자계획을 지키되, 큰 침체에 대비하면 저가 매수 기회를 얻을 수 있다고 강조한다. 리스크: 경기침체가 길어질 가능성, 연준의 급격한 금리 인상 영향, 정책 전환 시 주식 재배분 타이밍 문제가 있다.
다듬은 글
it's all over the news you know it I know it and we all know it widespread anxiety about the health of the American economy has resulted from the federal reserve's decision to raise interest rates to battle inflation a battle that many analysts say is already completely lost and one legendary investor predicts how the next rounds of the inflation war will play out American equities are in a Super Bubble of speculation and investors reclusing a lot of money if they don't move quickly according to Jeremy Grantham a well-known and experienced fund manager in light of grantham's prediction investors are less bullish on the stock market and more concerned about the federal reserve's attempts to curb inflation according to Grantham and his colleagues developing economists have Superior value and promise over the long run there is no shortage of apocalyptic predictions but when the evidence of an impending disaster becomes overwhelming it is easier to accept them it's hardly surprising that a warning from a well-respected senior investment manager about a Super Bubble is getting a lot of attention given that the stock market has seen one of its largest losses in over a decade and looks to be beginning another leg down following a rebound earlier this summer investors insatiable appetite for risk has driven stock values to extremes seen just a handful of times in the previous Century according to Jeremy Grantham the G in GMO his most recent work entering the super bubble's Final Act was published on August 31st in it he drew parallels between the years leading up to the Great Depression in 1929 and the unexpected collapse of the.com industry in 2000 he also discusses the late 1980s Obsession in Japan and the demise of the nifty 50 rally in the early 1970s the Federal Reserve and other central banks very cheap monetary policies helped create the stock market bubble the result was a precipitous drop in interest rates which flooded at financial markets with cheap money and fueled speculation for the better part of a decade according to grantham's findings the over evaluation generated by such excesses would lead to Bubbles erupting when they coincided with deteriorating economic and financial circumstances if it hasn't already he expects it to happen shortly according to his findings U.S stocks remain overpriced and inflationary pressures such as we've seen this year have always harmed price earnings multiples although at a more muted rate unfortunately the fundamentals have also begun to deteriorate significantly the Chinese Health crisis the conflict in Europe the food and energy shortages the record fiscal tightness and other factors have all contributed to a situation that is much more dire than anyone could have imagined in January while every economic cycle is unique past experience demonstrates that conditions May and often do deteriorate he said the stock market will plummet by half but didn't say when Bloomberg News the financial times the New York Post Fortune market watch CNBC and many others reported on grantham's comments not a single element about the situation suggested that anything horrible was about to happen instead there was much on the one hand on the other but not as much disinterest as would have been predicted while the market was booming if Grantham says the Market's bad performance this year is only the beginning of a catastrophic plunge investors tend to take him seriously because of his history of success although he has indicated he thinks the bubble wherein is ready to burst he is neither a doomsday bear or an irrational Golden Ball he had previously warned about the Reckless speculation on Wall Street but now he admitted that the bubble that had begun to form undoubtedly still had the capacity to develop some doomsayers prey on the insecurity and avarice of Their audience by exploiting their concern about the impending end of the world people often have good intentions and are forthright Grantham is a prime example of the latter group and he may have good cause to hold his opinion with inflation taken into consideration and current share prices compared to 10-year average profits the Schiller price earnings ratio shows that the S and P 500 Index is still significantly overpriced even if the index has dropped by almost 20 percent this is still true early in September the ratio hit 29.9 not far off from its level just before the 1929 market crash except for the.com bubble and the Bull Run that is ending now it had not been this High since the 1870s despite the federal reserve's efforts to manage inflation by increasing interest rates forecasts for economic growth and Company profitability continue to decrease even though Morgan Stanley market analyst Mike Wilson has been remarkably accurate so far this year he has just reduced his 2023 profits per share forecast for the S P 500 by 10 percent Insiders on Wall Street are increasingly concerned that the market has hit a sour spot the opposite of a sweet spot investors returned to selling shows broad concern about the state of the economy and financial markets they seem to have accepted the idea that the FED would raise interest rates regardless of economic growth or stock market performance there is no hint of losing ground despite the gloomy forecasts they haven't for example started selling everything without any consideration such pessimism is typical just before a bottom in the the market that should hold according to a client letter from JP Morgan the most recent sell-off was remarkably calm in the past relatives would start calling to advise you which assets to sell but now you get to decide for yourself grant them unlike many of his peers cares more about the long-term results of his Investments than he does about the results of the current quarter or trading session inflation-adjusted projections for the next seven years are derived from the present price level acceptable assumptions about economic and financial circumstances and the understanding that markets always revert to long-term growth Tendencies whether you have a very long time Horizon it doesn't matter if a pricey asset drops to a decent price or becomes too cheap or if it returns to earth right now soon or for a while the most up-to-date prediction made at the end of July predicts that major U.S company stocks will underperform inflation by 2.2 percent annually when accounting for an inflation they predict that certain assets such as various kinds of bonds would perform even worse While others such as offshore shares would show very minor increases they are often upbeat because of the large gains they anticipate making in Emerging Markets although most strategy is likely to raise eyebrows on Wall Street it represents the greatest long-term bet for the average saver U.S stocks don't seem like a smart bet even if they aren't in a Super Bubble or a typical bubble there are safer and higher yielding markets elsewhere it makes sense given the present atmosphere to reinvest some gains from U.S equities in developing markets or other low-priced assets you shouldn't disregard grantham's Council just because you don't believe he's a prophet we fear that a lengthy economic slowdown is possible due to the fed's quick rate hikes the possibilities of continued economic growth without a recession are slim as investors we should prepare for the worst and cross our fingers that nothing bad happens these next suggestions could get the job done maintaining a larger cash balance in one's investing account is prudent lessen your exposure to stock market risk especially in Rising beta markets Bond allocations often react to quantitative tightening by increasing the average maturity of the bond portfolio you should allow your exposure to Commodities and inflation bets as economic growth slows you'll be able to ride out any economic storm because of your preparations if you've prepared to keep your assets secure throughout the storm getting back to normal after it's over will be much simpler however if the Federal Reserve is successful in averting a recession or restoring monetary accommodation it will be simple to reallocate funds to the riskier equity Market putting money aside is difficult when the economy is in a downturn you may take precautions to make sure you're ready for the increased volatility keep more cash on hand than you think you'll need to cover unexpected expenses that way you won't feel forced to sell during a downturn your investment Horizon should be between five and seven years in order to mitigate the negative effects of adding distressed firms to your portfolio do not let your interest in investing consume you taking advantage of tax loss harvesting by selling stocks at a loss might help reduce your taxable capital gains you should stick with your investing plan regardless of the market don't take the media's guesses about when the market will bottom as gospel if my analysis is true the economic slump might be much more severe than anticipated resulting in much lower prices and if you prepare beforehand for the next big recession then you can make a lot of money out of it if you love this video subscribe leave a like and watch this one too
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