저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 시프는 2023년 대공황급 장기 침체와 2008년보다 심각한 금융위기를 예상하며, 연준의 고금리 유지와 인플레이션 장기화로 저금리 시대는 끝났다고 주장한다. 거시 전망: 얕은 경기침체라는 컨센서스는 틀렸고, 과거 연준의 과도한 저금리와 양적완화가 만든 거품 때문에 이번 침체는 매우 깊고 길 것이라고 주장. 2022년 고점 이후 인플레이션이 2% 목표로 복귀하기 어렵다고 봄. 금리 전망: 인플레이션이 2%로 내려가더라도 연준이 금리를 즉시 과거 저금리로 되돌리기 어렵고, 정상금리는 인플레이션율보다 높은 3~4% 수준이 될 것이라고 봄. 1% 또는 0% 복귀는 불가능하다고 주장. 연준 비판: 2018년 12월과 유사하게 경제지표가 악화되는데도 연준이 금리인상 기조를 고수하고 있으며, 결국 피벗(금리 인하 전환)이 올 것이라는 취지. 다만 이번에는 인플레이션이 목표치를 크게 웃돌아 2019년 초 같은 피벗 가능성은 낮다고 봄. 재정 및 정책: 1.7조 달러 규모 옴니버스 지출 법안이 인플레이션에 기름을 붓는다고 비판. 우크라이나 지원은 올해 누적 1,130억 달러로, 러시아의 연간 군사예산 650억 달러의 약 2배라고 지적하며 평화 협상 대신 전쟁을 지속하는 데 이해관계가 있다고 주장. 종목/자산 언급: 대상 자산(삼성전자, 비트코인, 금, 엔비디아 등) 직접 언급 없음. 미국채·금리 관련해서는 정상금리가 3~4% 수준으로 높게 유지된다는 취지의 발언이 있으나 10년물 금리 방향에 대한 명시적 1~3개월 예측은 없음. 리스크: 지금 경기침체가 이미 진행 중이며 2023년에 더 악화될 것이라는 점, 인플레이션 장기화 시 금리 인하 불가능이 핵심 리스크. 출연자 전망: 장기 비관론자로서 2023년 및 그 이후까지 대침체가 지속될 것이라고 전망.
다듬은 글
this recession is going to be shallow it is going to be extremely deep and it's going to be long lasting and it's probably going to include a worse financial crisis in 2008. think about it there's no way that this recession could be mild as I've mentioned on this podcast recessions generally are proportionate to the Booms that precede them and those booms typically result from the mistakes that are made when the FED keeps interest rates artificially low earlier this month CPI data came in cooler than expected but Jerome Powell's rhetoric remain hot the Federal Reserve raised rates by 50 basis points and the Fed chair maintain a hawkish tone Peter Schiff talks about the CPI data and inflation in this video he said the bottom line is the Fed is still completely oblivious to the disaster it's created despite some optimism that CPI is cooling Peter said we're never going to get back to the two percent Target even the state of the federal budget the massive deficits the amount of money that's already been printed and the amount of money it will need to print to monetize the debt according to peer that is the really important point that seems to be lost on everybody what investors are trying to figure out is has inflation peaked have we seen Peak inflation now I think the answer to that question is no I don't think inflation has peaked now it may have peaked for a short period it may take until the second half of 2023 before we get a year-over-year rate of inflation that was higher than the high water mark for 2022.
who knows maybe it will take into 2024 but the one thing that I'm certain of is that we're not going anywhere near two percent and that is what investors still don't understand that the days of low inflation are over and we're living in an era of high inflation that is a complete game changer for the fed and the FED has yet to come to terms with this new reality nor has the market he also pointed out that investors who are playing by the old rules will lose if they come adapt their strategy to the new reality of high inflation and higher interest rates despite the cooler than expected CPI data there wasn't any signal that the Fed was softening its resolve Powell said we have a long ways to go to get back to price stability Powell conceded that the economy has slowed down from its rapid Pace but Peter pointed out that we never really had a rapidly growing economy we just had a lot of inflation that masqueraded as growth we had a lot of Americans spending their stimulus money running up our trade deficits but that wasn't real economic growth we would now continue with the video to listen to Peter talk about the FED scrupulous spending and how it has gotten us to a very dire Point as you watch and sure to like the video subscribe and leave your comments below but one of the things that reminds me of December 2018 is that back then the Fed was Raising interest rates and posturing as if it was going to keep raising rates that it was committed to this policy of rate hikes and quantitative tightening but it maintained that stance in the face of weakening economic data in fact the data was very weak yet the Fed was oblivious to that data and instead was focusing on its commitment to return to normal interest rates and Shrink its balance sheet and so because the Fed was so Resolute in that commitment the markets were tanking and what ultimately happened is Powell pivoted in January and that's really what started the rally in late December was the anticipation of the pivot which we ultimately got the big difference of course is back then we didn't have an inflation problem on our hands so the Fed was able to come up with an excuse to Pivot because inflation was still below its supposed a two percent Target on the other hand right now inflation is still well above that Target and so the FED riding to the rescue to save the market with a pivot seems a lot less likely this January than it was in January of 2019.
now the FED didn't immediately start cutting rates in January but it certainly telegraphed that the trajectory of increases was going to slow down and we ultimately did get some rate cuts the FED initially described them as a mid-course correction but of course I pointed out in real time that was just BS that was the beginning of the move back down to zero and that's exactly what happened of course it took a pandemic to get us to zero but if it wasn't the pandemic it would have been something else and of course we ended up with qe4 which I always knew was coming and in fact I always said that qe4 would be bigger than qe12 and 3 combined and I was right on that as well so the reason that December of this year reminds me of December of 2018 is you have a similar situation where you have the FED committed to rate hikes despite the fact that the economic data continues to deteriorate and if we're not already in a recession and I believe that we are even if it hasn't been officially declared we will surely be in a recession next year in fact it seems almost unanimous just about every analyst and every representative from any major U.S company they're all saying that we're going to be in recession next year that is very rare normally if a recession is coming nobody other than me maybe season coming people are extremely reluctant to forecast a recession but now it seems like everybody has a recession in their forecast now the contrarian in me might say wait a minute if everybody expects a recession maybe we're not going to get one well the reason I still think you could be a contrarian here is because everybody agrees that the recession is going to be mild it's going to be short it's going to be shallow so in other words it's no big deal so in that respect the consensus is still wrong because there's no way this recession is going to be shallow when asked about the pain of inflation Powell said Americans would suffer worse pain if the Central Bank failed to act and let inflation run out of control Peter said that ship has sailed he said that the reality is that inflation is already out of control we're already past the point where the FED can regain control without causing not just a recession but a financial crisis the lower the FED keeps rates and the longer it keeps them low the more mistakes get made well we've had near zero percent interest rates for over a decade we had four rounds of quantitative easing the FED inflated the mother of all bubbles it's not going to be followed by itsy bitsy recession we're going to have the mother of all recessions it's going to be worse than the recession of 2007-2008 which we now call the Great Recession so this one's going to be greater than that so either we're going to have to rename that recession or come up with an even more ominous name for the one that we're already in but is going to get much worse in 2023 and probably Beyond also one of the other mistakes that a lot of investors make is believing that once the FED succeeds in reducing inflation to two percent that we're just going to go right back to those low interest rates that we've had since the 2008 financial crisis well they're wrong Twice first of all the fed's not going to succeed in bringing inflation back down to two percent and even if they did succeed they couldn't immediately lower rates back down to the low rates that we became accustomed to because that's why we have all this inflation and if they tried to bring rates back down any progress on inflation would be lost so in order to get inflation down to two percent and keep it there the FED needs to normalize interest rates and then leave them there in fact it actually has to get restrictive and then once inflation is back down to two percent we can have a normal rate of interest but normal interest rates are above the inflation rate because nobody will normally loan money for less than the rate of inflation because you're going to lose you have to get some type of positive return for making a loan so if inflation goes back down to two percent maybe rates could be three or four percent they can't go back down to one percent or zero not unless the FED wants to unleash the inflation monster that it's supposedly just succeeded in corralling but of course it's not going to succeed in doing that because the FED is not going to raise rates high enough to bring inflation down to two percent nor is the Fed gonna get any cooperation from Congress because we need cuts to government spending but we're getting the opposite of that we just got this Omnibus spending Bill 1.7 trillion dollars in spending this is throwing gasoline on the inflation fire we're increasing defense spending we're increasing welfare spending in fact we're increasing defense spending on the Ukraine included in the on the spending bill was another 45 billion dollars in aid for the Ukraine bringing the total so far this year to 113 billion dollars now first of all to put that in perspective the entire military budget for Russia for the year is 65 billion so the United States alone has given the Ukraine about twice as much as roster spends total on the war and America is not the only country giving the Ukraine Aid the Ukraine is getting aid from Europe and maybe Asia so a lot of money is going into the Ukraine far more than Russia is spending to fight the war and it seems that if our real goal was peace which should be our goal instead of spending all this money to perpetuate a war we should be doing everything we could to try to organize a piece because a peaceful resolution of this crisis should be in everybody's interest but apparently there's so much money at stake a lot of people are getting rich off the war so the last thing they want is peace Peter tagged this recession the mother of all recessions with reasons which she already pointed out in this video He also mentioned the ambiguous amount of money being spent by the FED to prepare situate the war between Russia and Ukraine instead of seeking a peaceful resolution which would be of more benefit to everyone America's spamming on the war alone has doubled the entire Russian military budget and yet Americans are suffering and are in pain from the inflation and High Cost of Living talk about priorities what do you think of the fed's ravenous spending on the Ukraine war and neglect of the recession in America and the state of the global economy let us know your thoughts in the comment section below also Endeavor to like the video subscribe and turn on notifications thanks for watching
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