저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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첫째 결론: 피터 쉬프는 주택시장이 2008년보다 더 심각한 붕괴를 맞을 것이며 금융위기가 생각보다 가깝다고 경고한다. 주택 거래: 미결 주택판매지수가 이달 4.6% 하락해 예상(5%)보다는 덜 떨어졌으나, 전월 하락폭은 10.2%에서 8.7%로 하향 수정됐다. 전년 대비 판매 감소폭은 2007~2008년 위기 때보다 큰 기록적 수준이라고 지적. 주택 가격과 모기지: 모기지 금리가 7% 이상으로 올라 구매 여력이 크게 줄었고, 금리 3.5% 시절에 자격을 얻었던 구매자들은 현재 금리에서 상환이 어려워진다. 주택 가격이 하락할 일이 남아 있으며 급매물이 쏟아질 것이라는 전망. 물가와 주거비: 주택 가격 하락이 인플레이션 둔화를 뜻하지 않는다고 주장. 인플레이션은 자산(부동산·주식)에서 소비재로 옮겨갈 뿐이며, 주거비(보험·세금·유지비·공과금)는 계속 오르기 때문에 CPI 주거비 항목은 줄지 않는다고 봄. 자산 효과: 미국인 가계 최대 자산인 주택 지분이 줄어드는 역자산효과(reverse wealth effect)가 나타나 순자산이 감소하고 소비자는 더 가난해진다고 설명. 연체와 신용: 일부 차입자는 상환을 포기하거나 전략적으로 상환을 중단할 가능성이 크며, 압류 절차 중 담보 가치가 크게 떨어져 은행 손실이 커진다. 거래 동결: 낮은 금리의 기존 모기지를 가진 사람들은 금리 부담 때문에 집을 팔지 않으려 하고, 모기지 이전이 불가능해 거래가 더 느려진다. 이는 대출기관에 큰 문제가 된다. 주택 매물 감소가 가격을 떠받치는 효과는 제한적이라고 봄. 위기 비교: 2008년보다 금리가 더 오래 낮았던 점과 달리, 현재는 여러 거품이 겹쳐 있고 주택 거품 규모도 더 크다고 주장. 연준이 금리를 계속 올리거나 신뢰도 유지를 위해 버틸 것이며, 연착륙 가능성을 믿는 것은 착각이고 이미 경기침체와 붕괴가 진행 중이라고 봄. 출연자 전망: 주택시장 추가 하락, 금리 고점 장기화에 따른 금융위기 우려 고수.
다듬은 글
we have been hearing some terrible information about the world's economy going down the drain for most of 2022 one section of the economy that has always gotten the worst economic issue broadcast is housing all of the information surrounding housing markets are abysmal and not encouraging economic experts have a lot of things to say about this issue which is why in today's video we will be taking a look at what Peter Schiff has to say about the crash of the housing market let's go as the Federal Reserve continues to take interest rates higher the air is gradually coming out of the housing bubble for a while now we have been seeing the dardo which reflects the fall of pending home sales which is even a lot less than expected they were down 4.6 percent this month and the consensus predicted a decline of five percent what's more is that during the previous months the decline was revised down a bit from 10.2 percent to 8.7 percent what this just tells us is that home sales continue to fall and at this point looking at the year-over-year report the decline in home sales is now a record the decline in home sales has never been this much not even during the crash in 2007-2008 when the housing bubble exploded Peter Schiff says that this is now worse and the only thing we are yet to experience is the fall in home prices vis-a-vis the high increase in inventories of and sold houses but he says that this does not mean we would not experience them all a crazy number of people will be seen putting their homes on the market once they realize what is going on and most especially where the housing market is heading he further explains that these people will most likely want out of this as soon as they can but the main issue is that there will be a glut of zealous and less qualified buyers why is this going to happen you may ask well currently mortgage rates are above seven percent and people cannot afford to pay these prices with the increase in interest rate when interest was around three and a half percent people could not exactly afford to pay such an amount but they were qualified for the mortgage and with the low payments these people could still swing it and make payment at some point at least but right now they dare not swing it because they simply cannot get those low payments as those low rates are long gone the rates are so high now the housing market has to reprise for higher interest rates Peter says that the implication of this is extremely severe as we are going to see a dramatic decline in the prices of houses what is even worse is that a lot of people are going to think that this is good and they will assume that since real estate prices are coming down it also means inflation is coming down to but they have got it wrong I mean stock prices are also going down but we don't see inflation reducing do we instead it purely means that inflation is shifting from Financial assets like real estate and stocks to consumer Goods there are a couple of other things which Peter brought to our attention as regards the housing market he says that even though housing prices are coming down it does not mean that the cost of shelter is also going to reduce the prices are not taking a drastic increase because what matters is not how much you pay for the home but what your monthly mortgage payments will be after you purchase the house so you may pay less but your financial costs are much higher simply put the cost of purchasing a house may be low and affordable for you but the aftermath which is also the main thing your monthly mortgage fee will not be reduced hence it is what home buyers will focus on after they buy their dream homes so even if the house prices are low and the mortgage interest is higher the monthly fees you would have to pay for a lower priced house could still very much be high due to an increase in the interest rates what's more is that other than a mortgage there is still maintenance taxis insurance and utilities all of which make up the whole shelter package and ultimately add to the cost of owning a home the prices of those things will continue to increase so it will not even matter to a home buyer that he purchased the house at a low price in the first place since he still has other bills to pay on his affordable home with the reduced prices of houses investors will be fooled to think that the fall and the prices will provide some kind of relief in the CPI but it won't this is because the price of shelter which entails those other housing needs previously mentioned is increasing even though the prices for Real Estate are coming down imagine this the prices of the assets in your house are reducing but the cost of living in the house is way expensive as it is going up whenever it gets the chance to Peter then says that given this the net worth of certain individuals is falling as what will happen during this situation of a fall in home prices and increase in the cost of staying sheltered is a reverse wealth effect for most Americans their largest asset is their home equity as the cost of living surges this home equity will be Vanishing little by little all of this just makes everything so much worse at least in the previous years as we began to see an increase in consumer prices wealth was also increasing due to a similar increase in the prices of real estate properties and ultimately home equity became more hence an increase in their net worth helped and consumers did not get affected much by the rise in consumer prices but right now people's net worth is drastically reducing and as such their home equity is beginning to vanish no thanks to the surge in real estate prices to make things worse the cost of living keeps increasing which only compounds the misery of various individuals consumers do not have the amount of wealth that can be used to ease the negative impact of higher prices because these individuals are getting poorer as the prices are increasing which is terrible Peter further explains that it is even even more likely that some of those who borrowed money to purchase their houses are not going to be able to pay it back he pointed out that there is some stimulus to strategically stop making mortgage payments because it takes a while for banks to foreclose and kick people out of their homes meanwhile people don't pay taxis on their properties and also don't maintain their properties by the time the bank finalizes the Foreclosure its collateral has drastically diminished in value so this is where an immense crisis begins as mortgage rates continue to see an increase many more people will be reluctant to sell their houses because they are now closing into a low mortgage rate and ultimately would not be able to afford to take on a new mortgage Peter says that you cannot transfer your mortgage from your current home to a new home or can the buyer of your home assume your mortgage they have to take out a brand new mortgage and so because so many people have such low mortgage rates they are going to hold off and are going to stay in their houses for as long as they can nothing else will come out of this other than the fact that the housing market will be slower which is a big problem for money lenders so people will be stuck with the money losing mortgage as rates are increasing they will lose a lot of money due to this on the other hand for people who don't pay their mortgages because their home equity is solo the bank will lose a lot because even after they foreclose on the property the value will already be lost you may think that the fact that a lot of people would avoid selling their real estate properties in this current market would make houses unavailable and maybe push the prices of houses down but Peter made us know that it is highly unlikely for this to give the housing market a significant boost once again no thanks to the increased mortgage rates the fact that all of these were part of the problems of the 2008 financial crisis but what is crazy is that this time it will be worse than it was at that time you may ask why that is well firstly rates were lower for a longer period back then also the real estate bubble we have now is a lot bigger than the one we had back then right now what we are seeing is a combination of various bubbles in the economy which takes the crown over the one we head back in 2008.
this is the main reason Peter says that a bigger financial crisis is closer than we think he also does not believe that the FED will not sit back and watch every single one of these things take control of the economy but that they will try as much as they can to hold out for a long time they might keep increasing rates to uphold as much credibility as they can but as far as Peter Schiff is concerned we have been led to recession now because of certain things that we have seen happening which do not occur in a non-recession period he further says that the FED might be delusional to think that the country still has a chance at getting a soft Landing when in reality everything has already crashed if you enjoyed this video guys make sure to subscribe to the channel Channel like the video and watch this one as well
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