원문 보기
Most people believe they are long-term investors until the market crashes. Then they sell in a panic because they don't really know why they bought it in the first place . And that's precisely where the problem lies. Peter Lynch, one of the most successful investors of all time, understands that the market falls again and again.
He knows that the fear of loss is often irrational. But those who invest wisely recognize the greatest opportunities in times of crisis. Lynch was the legendary manager of the Fidelity Magellan Fund and achieved an average annual return of 29% over 13 years. An incredible success that made him a role model for millions of investors .
But what is his secret? It begins with a simple truth. Anyone who invests needs to understand what they own. Because if the price falls and you don't know why you bought it, you will panic. Historically, it is perfectly normal for the market to crash regularly. In the last 93 years, there have been 50 corrections in which the stock market fell by at least 10% .
That means something like this happens roughly every two years. And there were 15 worse crashes, so-called bear markets, in which prices plummet by 25% or more, during this period. So, a significant decline every six years. Anyone who cannot accept this should not own shares. But those who are prepared can make big profits at precisely that time .
Lynch explains why a falling stock price is not necessarily bad. When a stock falls from $14 to $6, but the company is financially healthy, then you have an incredible opportunity. Because if one originally expected the price to rise from 14 to 22, then an increase from six to 22 is even more of a dream.
But most investors act in exactly the opposite way. They buy a stock because it has fallen , without understanding the company. And if it continues to fall, they do n't know what to do. They sell out of panic, often right at the lowest point. A famous example that Lynch mentions is Polaroid. The stock fell from $130 to $100.
Many investors thought, "If it falls below 100, I'll buy it immediately." And they bought them. But it continued to fall, to 95, to 80, to 50, until it finally landed at $18. The company had no debt and was profitable, but the stock had previously been massively overvalued. Lynch himself made a similar mistake in his early years as an investor .
He invested in Kaiser Industries because the stock had fallen from $26 to $16. How much lower can she fall, he thought. So he bought it at 14. Then it dropped to 10 and he even recommended it to his mother. But things continued to go downhill. $6, $5, $4, $3. It was only at this point that Lynch realized he had made a fundamental mistake .
He hadn't analyzed the company properly. Kaiser Industries was financially sound. They owned huge stakes in Kaiser Steel, Kaiser Aluminum and many other companies and had no debts. And that became a valuable lesson for him. A company with no debt cannot simply go bankrupt. Ultimately, his patience paid off.
Kaiser Industries distributed its shares to shareholders, sold some businesses, and the value of the stock rose to about $50. But this experience showed him that you shouldn't just buy stocks because they have fallen in price. You need to know what the company is worth. Another example Lynch mentions is Taco Bell.
In the 1760s, the stock fell from $14 to one dollar. The company had no debts and had never had to close a single branch . Lynch started buying at $7 , held onto the stock when it fell to one dollar, and was eventually rewarded. Years later, PepsiCo bought the company for $42 per share. Had it not been taken over, it could have risen much higher.
For Lynch, volatility is not a bad thing. On the contrary. It offers opportunities. While others sell in a panic , the smart investor can buy at a good price. The market fluctuates constantly, but corporate profits rise by about 8% per year in the long term . This means that the stock market should roughly double every nine years .
Even major crashes, like the one in 1987, couldn't unsettle him. Back then, the market fell by 580 points in a single day. His fund lost $4 billion in two days. Lynch himself was on a golfing holiday in Ireland with his wife when the crash happened. But what should he have done? The market had already fallen.
Hasty action would have changed nothing. So he ended his vacation and flew back to talk to his investors. What do you think of this approach so far? Write your opinion in the comments. During his entire time as a fund manager, there were nine major market crashes. And each time, his fund fell in line with the market.
But in the long term, prices rose again. The crucial thing is not to sell out of fear during a burglary, but to concentrate on what really matters. The fundamental strength of a company. Lynch emphasizes that you don't have to be right every time. Even if only one out of four investments is a complete success, enormous profits can be made as long as the winning stocks are held long enough.
If you invest $1000, you can lose a maximum of $1000. But if you're right, you can make 5000, 10000 or more from it. The lesson from all this? Panic is an investor's greatest enemy. Those who let themselves be driven crazy by daily fluctuations will never truly be successful. However, those who understand what they own and use volatility to buy more at a lower price will be rewarded in the long run.
Lynch himself admits that he cannot predict the market . Nobody can do that. But one thing is certain. In 10, 20 or 30 years, stocks will outperform all other forms of investment . Those who invest in their future , whether for themselves, their children or grandchildren, should not be deterred by short-term declines .
Because one thing is certain. The market will always fall. But in the long term, it will rise. And whoever understands this has taken the first step towards success.
Comments 0