저자: 짐크레이머 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 연준이 금리 인상 우려를 잠재우는 데 성공했고 금리가 내려 주식이 단기적으로 흔들려도 조정은 좋은 매수 기회가 아니라는 입장이다. 연준 발언 평가: 불러드 총재가 매파적 발언을 했지만 경제 상황을 고려하면 자연스러운 조정이라고 봤다. 파월 의장과 불러드의 연이은 발언이 테이퍼 공포를 잠재웠다고 평가했다. 금리 흐름: 채권 금리가 하락하며 채권 랠리가 나타났고, 스티브 리스먼 인용으로 저금리는 주식 가치에 우호적이라고 주장했다. 2022년 말 첫 금리 인상 전망이 부각되며 시장이 일부 불안해했다는 점도 언급했다. 원자재: 팔라듐 -11%, 백금 -7%, 옥수수 -6%, 구리 -5%, 대두 -12%, 금은 15개월 만에 최악의 주간 성적을 기록했다고 설명했다. 다만 일부 숫자는 변동성이 커 정확하지 않을 수 있다고 덧붙였다. 주식 전망: 당장 매수하지 않겠다는 입장이다. 계절적으로 이번 주와 월요일이 약세이고 이후 4~5일도 약할 것으로 보며, 약세 이후 좋은 거래 기회가 올 때 진입하겠다고 했다. 시장의 거품(프로스)이 빠져야 한다고 주장했다. 임 Gamestop·밈주식: 밈주식 AMC·GME가 하락해야 한다는 암시를 언급했고, 밈주식 관련 인물들의 행보에 대해서도 의견을 냈다. 출연자 전망: 짐 크레이머는 연준이 일을 잘하고 있다고 평가하며, 이번 조정이 일시적이라는 낙관적 시각을 보였다.
다듬은 글
Others has upended everything from trading volumes to all large investors playing the market, but Jim, we should start with the other one, Jim Bullard, who made headlines on "Squawk Box." He was certainly more hawkish than the market maybe wanted to hear.
Yes, look, he has been infinitely more dovish in the sense that he really wanted the economy to come back, and like Jay Powell, he wants to get as many people employed as possible. But I think he pretty much said that a lot of our job is pretty much done when it comes to buying bonds. And he kind of just said one of those things where I think people said, "Why is the Fed still buying mortgage funds?" He made common sense. The only thing he didn't do was acknowledge that the commodities everyone was really worried about on Tuesday have completely collapsed.
Oh, my gosh, it's stunning. A lot of commodities are now down for the year. Look at the declines: palladium. These numbers have fluctuated too and are volatile, so they may not be the most accurate, but they give you a picture. Palladium down 11%, platinum 7, corn 6, copper 5, soybeans 12. Gold had its worst week in 15 months.
You want to listen to Bullard really quick and then we can talk. Yes, let's listen in and come back to chat. Of course I want to hear Bullard. We were expecting a good year, a good reopening, but this is a bigger year than we were expecting, more inflation than we were expecting, and I think it's natural that we have tilted a little bit more hawkish here to contain inflationary pressures.
And interest rates are down big. But I also think, as our colleague Steve Liesman said this morning, that's right, thank you for the segue there, because Liesman did tweet this morning. Quote: "From where I'm sitting, Powell has managed not just to avoid a taper tantrum, but found taper tranquility." True, he's not tapering just yet, but talking about it, and bonds are rallying. That is already better than in 2013. And he said, "While I'm betting the Fed is quote 'not displeased' to see some froth, Jim, come out of stock, someone is going to notice soon that lower bond yields argue for higher stock value."
And it makes a lot of sense. The principal part there is "from where I'm sitting," which we don't know. What I like about what Steve said is, once again, you go and do this talk like Jay Powell did, the 40 people raise their hands, "Don't you have to, don't you have to," and he says no, we'll do it, we'll take 2023. And you send Bullard out, and Bullard, who is a noted, I would say dove, and a very thoughtful man, obviously. Five, six years ago, I had quite a tiff with him.
They're getting it done without making it so that we're suddenly like, in 2015, when Janet Yellen did a, you know, "Hey, obviously the economy is really strong, let's start the rate hike," boom, and then oil collapses, and she didn't do as good of a job. We have to grade these Fed chiefs. We can say they did a good job or not. It is no different from saying that certain coaches we know did a good job or not.
And I think they're doing a great job. I don't think I should buy here, because we're seasonally... this is it, this is 22 out of 22 times, as my friend Larry Williams has said, these days have been down. So today and Monday, Monday. When you were asked by Andrew in the last hour, what would you buy here, you were emphatic: nothing.
You said, "I said it was a one-two punch." He asked, what would you buy here, and [someone] has the guts to come out for the hawks, and needless, a needless and gratuitous slap at me. And I do think, which by the way, he's probably going to be right, but I definitely feel that the numbers say today and Monday are weak, and then the next four or five days are weak, and then you have a great trade. So let it come in, that's what they're telling you.
Look, guys, we're trying to get the froth out. Acknowledge that now. They did everything but say that AMC and GME should be down. You can imagine that if Bullard put out someone on meme stocks and said, "Listen to meme stocks," or Adam Aron comes out and says, "I have to do 500 million shares here because this is taking the game on," or Ryan Cohen comes on, the punitive CEO, or not really of GameStop, and opens up a crypto bank and 4,0...
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