Inflation data will dictate Fed policy going forward: Jeremy Siegel

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2021년 6월 연준 점도표 상향 이후 인플레이션 우려 속 긴축 가능성 논의. 시겔 교수는 점도표가 더 공격적으로 바뀔 것이며 향후 2~2.5개월 내 테이퍼링 발표가 나올 것으로 봤다. 다음 달 7월 13일 CPI 발표가 연준 정책 방향을 좌우할 핵심 변수라고 강조했다. 인플레이션 전망에 대해서는 시장에 풀린 유동성으로 물가수준이 누적 약 20% 상승할 수 있으며, 이는 1년 내 20% 인플레가 아니라 2~3년에 걸쳐 5~7% 수준의 높은 인플레가 이어진다는 의미라고 설명했다. 이는 연준 전망치를 크게 웃돈다고 봤다. 금리인상은 내년에 다시 있을 것으로 전망했으며, 연준 위원들이 점도표를 더 긴축적으로 바꾸는 것은 당연하다고 봤다. 금리 인상 가능성에 패닉할 일은 아니라고 말했다. 반대 의견(Jim Lebenthal): 금리인상은 약 2년 후(18~24개월)로 보는 것이 합리적이며, 연준 위원들의 경제전망요약(SEP)을 따르는 것이 타당하다고 주장했다. 불확실성이 크고 먼 미래 예측은 어렵다는 입장. 시겔의 재반론: 현재 주택시장이 전후 가장 강하고 중간 주택가격이 20% 상승했는데도 월 400억 달러 MBS 매입을 지속하는 것은 이해하기 어렵다. 연준이 이제 정상화(normalization)를 시작해야 하며, 미세조정은 불가능하므로 더 일찍 시작해야 한다고 주장했다. 주식 시장에 대해서는 연준의 무제한 유동성을 시장이 반기는 것만은 아니라는 취지로 언급해 시장 우려를 시사했다.

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01. i'm not surprised at all and by the way i think those dots are going to become more aggressive as we go forward i actually think within the next two two and a half months we're going to get a tapering an announcement of a tapering plan uh and i absolutely do think that rate hikes will be again next year now is that something to panic about no not necessarily in fact i'd worry if if they didn't because i do not i mean i believe jay powell is a great communicator i mean he was very very clear he believes his staff who says all these factors are basically temporary i i don't believe that i think there's much more permanent factors going on here we're going to get our next cpi on july 13th that's going to be very important and by the way all those members what they're going to a lot of them were raising questions to jay and and he said listen i think it's temporary you know let's leave the staff until we see something different so they're going to be watching like a hawk and so will all the others watch that inflation data next two and a half months that will dictate the fed policy going forward okay remember i i believe that the money that's been pushed in is going to give us a 20 cumulative bump in the price level that doesn't mean 20 inflation in one year or anything like that two or three years of five six seven that's way above what they put in their forecast this was step one and moving towards what i think is gonna happen uh i think they're gonna be further steps in the future okay so i we gave you a healthy platform yesterday to share your view that there was going to be a surprise now i'm going to i want to invite you into the gauntlet if i could professor because jim labenthal just just put a point of view forward that is a 180 degree turn from what you just said jim i want to let you in you think you think rate hikes are not going to be as soon as the professor said right you said the market totally strong yeah so um by the way uh professor you may not remember this but i'm one of your students so i hate to disappoint you with a disagreement um but uh well it was 25 years ago so i've forgotten a lot apparently but listen what i'm doing right now what i'm doing right now professor and i'd love your feedback on this is what i'm saying is whether it's 18 months or 24 months that's far longer than the horizon in which the normal human being can project so what i'm doing is i'm simply taking the summary of economic projections which suggests that liftoff is two years from now it may be later it may be sooner there are too many unknown variables which are the proverbial butterfly flapping its wings today that can cause a hurricane tomorrow for us to say that it's going to be next year or the year thereafter so i'm simply going with the governors and their summary of economic plots do you think i'm terribly wrong no i think you're right at how much uncertainty there is uh out there and and the truth of the matter is i i i let's be honest that forecast of inflation and of the real economy have not been great neither of the private forecasters they really do react to the data my my belief is when i take a look out there the liquidity that's already in the system and the economic activity and physical stimulus that we're going to get that bump in inflation and they're going to start seeing it in the july report the august report and they're going to modify their uh policy on on that basis i i absolutely agree with you they're i think their forecasts are still far too conservative on that you're you're not going to make the bulls happy because you're you i feel like you're you're taking the market down a little bit yeah yet again did you say this i i you know the you say not happy i don't know whether the market should welcome just unlimited liquidity into the future i i i actually think i how the economy requires them to step back i mean it is puzzling to me with the strongest housing market uh maybe in the post-war period uh you know prices medium prices up 20 that they still have to be buying 40 billion dollars a month of mortgage-backed securities i mean what is the purpose of that uh i i mean i'm just a little bit puzzled they've done a great job i've liked what they did last year i praised what they did last year and now it's time to say we did it let's step back and begin the normalization rather than oh this is temporary we're not quite at where we're gonna go and uh if they're gonna try to attempt to fine-tune it no fed has been able to fine-tune the economy they've got to start sooner you