저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 연준 파월 발언 이후 단기 반등이 나오지만, 금리 재상승 리스크로 변동성 큰 구간이 될 수 있다는 진단 연준·금리 전망: 파월이 12월보다 매파 톤이 약해졌고 금리 인상 폭이 25bp 두 번 정도 남았다는 뉘앙스로 받아들여져 시장이 바닥 신호로 반응했다고 봄. 시장은 보통 금리 피크 6~9개월 전에 바닥을 찍는다는 과거 패턴을 언급 단기 수급: 연말 세금손실 매도(tax loss harvesting)로 테슬라 등이 108달러 부근까지 밀린 뒤 한 달 만에 약 두 배가 됨. 펀드들이 포지션을 줄여 놓은 상태라 강제 매수(systematic buying)가 이어지고 있다고 설명. 2018년 말~2019년 초와 유사하다고 봄 비트코인: 2023년 2월 7일 기준 약 23,000달러 부근에서 횡보. 일봉 골든크로스(50일선이 200일선 상향 돌파) 발생. 조정 시 2만 달러 재테스트, 상승 시 2만 5천 달러 돌파를 언급 리스크: 물가가 다시 튀면 연준이 다시 긴축으로 돌아설 수 있으며, 이 경우 조정이 크게 올 수 있다고 경고. 지금은 유동성 재점화와 인플레 재확산 사이의 민감한 시기라는 판단 밸류에이션: 벤저민 그레이엄 기준으로 금리 3.5%를 적용하면 S&P500 적정 PER은 약 14배인데 현재 약 22배라 약 50% 고평가라는 주장. 다만 이 모델은 현재 시장에서 그대로 쓰이지는 않는다고 덧붙임 기술주: 고베타 기술주가 30~60일 사이 60~100% 급등한 것을 건전하지 않은 움직임으로 평가 스타트업·금리: 1960년대 이후 상위 100개 공개 기술기업을 10년물 금리와 비교한 결과, 긴축기 설립 기업이 더 큰 가치를 만들었다고 주장. 과거 PC·인터넷 같은 기술 대전환이 긴축기와 겹칠 때 큰 부가 만들어졌다는 논리. 향후 5~10년 기술 발전과 금리 재상승이 겹치면 스타트업 투자에 좋은 환경이 될 수 있다고 봄 다가오는 주요 일정: 다음 주 거시 지표와 여러 연준 위원 발언이 예정, 특히 파월 발언이 시장 방향에 가장 중요하다고 언급
다듬은 글
I watched Powell's speech and it was really amazing because in December he was extremely hawkish and he was basically like listen we're going to keep rates higher than you like and longer than you want and that was pretty clear and the markets reacted and then not but 35 40 days later he essentially said we have two 25 basis point hikes left to go and he's going to try to stick the landing essentially and even though the rest of the language in his entire speech and the press conference if you read it in the absence of his body language so if you just read the transcript would seem very hawkish as well but the reality was he basically capitulated and then the market essentially said okay we're at the end of this thing and we've talked about this before but markets tend to bottom six to nine months before it's clear that you could have done this and so we're a little bit Off to the Races in the short term it's compounded by a couple of other factors one is that at the end of last year so many people were tax loss harvesting which means if you had some gains somewhere else you sold some things that were losing money so that you could net the two together you saw a lot of stocks Tesla was probably the poster child for this trade all the way down to like 108 dollars a share and it's effectively doubled in the last 30 days right so everybody tax loss harvested everybody degrossed nobody was really owning anything and then when Powell basically said we're mostly done there's been so much systematic buying right now that nobody's really well positioned to me this is very similar and yearly reminiscent of the end of 2018 and beginning of 2019.
and if you guys remember at the end of 2018 October November December the markets just fell and part of it was Powell's going to raise rates inflation's getting out of control et cetera Etc and then we got all this data that said China may be entering a real period of malaise and power capitulated again trying to stick the landing and long story short he didn't that was a head fake and the markets just ripped higher then we went into the covet pandemic and all that stuff happened so I think we're about to replay a little bit of that at least in the next 30 to 90 days the pain trade is to go up so that's probably where we're going Bitcoin lingered near 23 000 on February 7th as a key chart phenomenon hit for the first time in 18 months data from cointelegraph markets Pro and trading views showed BTC USD tracking sideways overnight having shunned volatility at the week's first Wall Street open while failing to flip 23 000 to support the pair nonetheless saw a potentially significant event on February 6 in the form of a golden cross on the daily chart this refers to the rising 50 period moving average crossing over the 200 period moving average the last time that this occurred on daily time frames was in September 2021 two months before bitcoin's latest all-time high hello and welcome to crypto street so we have a period now which is disinflationary but the problem is if the stock market keeps going up and all of a sudden we have less restrictive monetary conditions then we're going to be back at the same place we were before which is money sloshing around into all kinds of risky assets or more money you know there's still an enormous amount of money sitting on the sidelines that has to come into the market now if this thing keeps going higher so we're in a delicate moment and if we reignite inflation because all of a sudden more companies have more liquidity that they can tap right more money they can raise more money as a result that they can spend because we don't have this first inflationary cycle under control there could be a risk that that we reignite inflation and so then then they have to capitulate the fat has to capitulate again and start another hiking cycle so I think it's a complicated moment I think all of the smart money in Wall Street that I talked to up until this point they forecasted like this period would be choppy and the second half of the year would be really robust and like you needed to be super long and things were going to be incredible and when I talked to them this week they're like oh God we weren't positioned for this we had no risk going into this we're going to be forced buyers there's a bunch of companies that are Whispering that they want to go public now oh really the big banks have been calling around trying to book build quietly for some IPOs and so if they try to kind of crack this Capital markets open I think there's again the marginal risk will be that we do whip saws socks some crypto analysts have keenly watched the cross with vintoref owner a contributor to on-chained data platform crypto Quant arguing that twenty five thousand dollars could reappear as a result Bitcoin gold and cross just happened he summarized in a Twitter reaction this potential correction could see BTC retest twenty thousand dollars to 100 dma and key support then in the bullish case test twenty five thousand dollars next make twenty five thousand dollars support and its nail in the coffin for the Bears the thing that we have to think about is like most of the market are not people right most of the market are computers and algorithms and ETFs it's an extremely formulaic buying model do you have components of an index those represent certain percentages you have to own those percentages to be relevant as that index and so it's this reinforced buying loop as well as a reinforced selling Loop right so when things start moving those folks have to just systematically move money in all the humans know that so the humans tend to front run all the computers and they basically are the ones that sell into these guys and then that's what inflates these prices and similarly on the way down humans try to front run it by being short into that stuff so we could see the capital markets open even if we don't it's actually the worst scenario because now you have all this money going into a fewer number of names that sort of explains Facebook has doubled in in 30 to 60 days yeah it was about Tesla Tesla has doubled in 30 you know 30 60 days a lot of the tech stocks like high beta stocks that we are all you know helping to build those companies have just absolutely ripped 60 to 100 percent these are not healthy and normal moves and so the question is what happens if inflation somehow all of a sudden pokes itself back up if you listen to Buffett Buffett's teacher this guy Ben Graham in Ben Graham's book the way that he would look at a stock and obviously look things have changed but the way that he would look at a stock is he would look at that risk-free rate he would double it and then the inverse of that is the maximum price to earnings ratio that he would pay for a stock right that's the trade-off is if you can get more than two times the risk-free rate then it's worth owning a company what that means is that if if you take three and a half percent as a terminal rate the right p e is around 14 for the S P 500 right now the S P 500 trades at 22 times p e which would mean that we are 50 over value now that again that's a Benjamin Graham model and I think the world has pretty cleanly moved away from it but there's probably some rooting in that intellectual framework that's still valuable and to your point David it just reinforces that man we need to start to learn a new regime here because when rates are not zero there is just a lot of excess that you can't support because the alternative trade-offs for investors are plentiful you know and plowing money into a money losing startup becomes less attractive ahead of next week's macroeconomic data prints multiple fed officials were set to speak with chair Jerome Powell's words expected to be the most significant regarding Market moving potential nothing special this week the only key factor to watch is Powell tomorrow afternoon perhaps one more sweep for correction and then the party should continue rallying upwards we did a little analysis over here and it was just basically looking back 60 years of company formation we looked at all of the 100 most valuable public company startups and we indexed that to the 10-year interest rate so what are we looking at here trim off with the shirt so basically we went back from 1960 onwards so basically you know 63 years and what this shows you is the hundred most valuable public technology companies then the size of the circle here is their market cap and then it's overlaid on top of the 10-year interest rate as well as gray bars for recessions so what is this graphic meant to illustrate well it just was for us to study is there a correlation between the value of companies and what the interest rates were what the economy was doing at the time and to your point Jason the trend is pretty starkly made on this chart which is that if you were a company that was founded in a period of austerity you had the ability in general to build a much larger company than that which was founded in a period of wealth and excess right so when you look at when rates were sort of approaching zero or were zero there was a lot of really successful companies they're listed here in the in the light gray on the right but none of those things really represent the success that these other companies had that's the first interesting takeaway the second interesting takeaway though from this has nothing to do with rates per se but it is that when rates intersect with the emergence of huge technology Trends so in the case of the 1970s it was the PC revolution in the case of the late 1990s it was the internet Revolution those two things which required enormous progress in both physical infrastructure so atoms as well as software infrastructure bits when you put those two things together those also created big companies and so if you add that all up the point is that whenever you see huge tectonic shifts in technology combined with periods of austerity that's when the gargantuan dollars are made so in the 1970s companies like Microsoft and Apple from the get-go had to be profitable right and in the absence of one very important round of financing that Amazon was able to close the next big lot of companies were founded again in Rising rates where they just had to get profitable or find a way to be positive free cash flow or have positive working capital faster than anybody else so these are like really interesting trends that I think just say that as rates creep back up and if we can intersect that with some improvements in technology over the next five to ten years that we've all talked about it could be a real Boon for startups and startup investing so is it a good time to invest in crypto Market tell us in the comments also don't forget to like And subscribe see you soon with the next video thank you so much for watching
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