저자: 캐시우드 · 외국인
요약 보기
캐시 우드는 실리콘밸리은행과 실버게이트 파산을 금융 위기 신호로 보며, 연준 긴축이 M2 감소와 장단기 금리 역전으로 이어져 경기 둔화가 올 수 있다고 본다. 은행 위기 관련: 자산 유출과 예금 이탈이 위기의 핵심이며, 벤처캐피털 유동성 압박과 MMF로의 자금 이동이 은행권 전반의 위험이라고 설명한다. 금리·연준 관련: 연준이 고용·소매판매 등 강한 지표에 반응해 매파적으로 움직이고 있으며, 임금 상승률은 둔화되어 비용 인상형 인플레이션 우려는 낮다고 본다. 장기 국채금리는 2월 초 약 3.5%에서 4.1%까지 올랐다가 현재 3.7% 수준이다. 통화량 관련: M2 증가율은 2021년 2월 27%로 정점을 찍은 뒤 1월에 처음 마이너스를 기록했고, 2월에는 약 -3% 수준으로 추정된다. 1920년대 이후 처음 있는 M2 감소로 보고 있다. 수익률곡선 관련: 장단기 금리차 역전 폭이 약 100bp에 달하며, 이는 향후 1년 내 성장 또는 인플레이션이 기대보다 낮게 나올 신호라고 본다. 시장 흐름: 연초 대비 S&P500은 월초 기준 약 -6%, 금융·부동산 약 -10%, 기술·산업재 약 -3% 수준이며, 은행·금융 섹터의 약세를 짚는다. 스테이블코인 관련: USDC 대량 환매와 거래소의 USDC-달러 전환 일시 중단이 있었고, 서클은 USDC 보호를 위해 공급을 줄이고 있다고 전한다. 출연자 전망: 연준이 긴축 기조를 바꿀 가능성이 있으며, 장기 전망으로는 성장과 물가가 기대보다 약할 것이라고 본다. 다만 구체적 가격 목표나 개별 종목 방향 언급은 없다.
다듬은 글
but we're beginning to see uh Brewing here a banking crisis and the question we have to answer is this going to become systemic like Lehman Brothers in 0809 or and we're betting on this latter one here is this more like 1994 when uh Orange County went broke and that created a crisis to which the FED responded we think it's much more like 1994 because the setup was similar in 93-94 commodity prices had taken off as we were coming out of that recession it was an SNL induced recession so housing and and the Fed was railing against those price increases with higher interest rates it was a terrible year for growth stocks and that's how we would characterize uh 2022.
um but when Orange County went bust uh that was a sign that the FED had gone too far foreign base hit the brakes on conversions between usdc stablecoin and US Dollars late Friday as Fallout from Silicon Valley Banks collapse spread into the heart of crypto trading in a tweet the crypto exchange said it was temporarily pausing the conversions while banks are closed over the weekend The Exchange said it planned to restart conversions on Monday hello and welcome to crypto Street in today's video Kathy Wood CEO of RK Investment Management updates about the recession fears and the current market cap of the crypto industry and reaffirms her firm belief in disruptive innovation we believe that the failure of a silvergate bank and Silicon Valley Bank that which just uh went the FDIC put it into receivership today both of those are telling us a couple of things one that yeah the FED has gone uh pretty far and is causing a lot of banks not just these difficulties and I'll describe how in a moment so we do agree with those who say well silvergate had a concentration of crypto clients customers and Silicon Valley Bank had a high concentration of venture and Venture related uh customers uh and so that's all true but if you look at what has happened here it is the deposit outflows that have triggered the the problem the crisis we know that Venture Capital um has is facing a bit of a liquidity Suite squeeze uh fewer deals are being done there is more risk aversion in the marketplace and so these companies are having to draw down their deposits uh the most bank with Silicon Valley Bank they're drawing down their deposits because they have to and there are others perhaps at Silicon Valley Bank who are saying uh wait a minute I'm not being paid anything here at this bank or not paid very much so I'm just going to put my money in a money market fund and until I need it um a lot of banks are facing that ladder risk if you look at the money center Banks the big Banks they hardly pay anything on deposits and um and uh and so money is fleeing to money market funds simply what's happening uh uh in the banking system right now is changing everything from from my point of view from our point of view uh and is going to make the FED think twice about what's going on and that's a good thing what I will say is we do believe in the last two months that the FED has been influenced by economic indicators that have looked unbelievably strong now retail sales up three percent in January month to month that's like a 36 annualized rate with department stores I think department stores uh were up 17 month to month so that's like 200 percent does anybody believe that no those are seasonal factors uh uh Gone awry actually the seasonal adjustment factors expect a cold winter especially in the north Northeast they didn't get it so the adjustments that they're making to uh adjust out the impact of winter are causing crazy statistics and the FED has been paying attention to them clearly uh uh because of how chairman Powell uh was talking on uh Tuesday and Wednesday of this week he was sounded very hawkish and and so the employment report today likewise again still a warm winter employment another strong employment report by some measures by other measures the FED got what it wanted to see average hourly earnings up only 0.2 percent so two and a half half percent at an annualized rate those are wages so so the wage uh the the inflation that we have seen is not feeding into wages we're not seeing that cost push inflation that was associated with the um with the 70s and the other thing we saw in this report was a a decline in the work week which means the headline report isn't as strong as it looked the pause speaks to the chaos that's roiled the crypto industry's second largest stable coin in the wake of Silicon Valley Bank's demise on Friday speculating on the stability of usdc Traders redeemed 1.6 billion dollars of usdc lowering its total Supply circle is currently protecting usdc from a Black Swan failure in the U.S banking system tweeted Circle Chief strategy officer Dante desparte late Friday night Silicon Valley Bank is a critical Bank in the U.S economy and its failure without a federal rescue plan will have broader implications for business banking and entrepreneurs the S P 500 this is a month to as of today the s p down six percent and the worst performing sectors again and the market is beginning to recognize everything I've just talked about in the banking sector real estate and financial services both down about 10 percent the best performing Consumer Staples down three percent uh Industrials technology all of them down three percent so um in the fixed income Market we started uh the month of February at about three and a half percent on the long-term bond yield uh it went up to 4.1 percent uh very recently now as of today we're down to 3.7 so a slight increase over the month despite the FED uh sounding very hawkish we've been very focused on the trajectory of M2 so M2 the growth rate peaked in uh February of 21 at 27 percent and uh we've been suggesting that if there were no changes in fed policy that we would see a decline in M2 for the first time since the Great Depression in the 1920s and here we are January was the first negative month uh February the the actual number is not out yet but we know that demand deposits so checking accounts are down four percent year-over-year so that means that all of M2 was probably down somewhere in the two to three percent range probably closer to three so now these declines are becoming more serious and we've been expecting some issues to show up as a result another clue that monetary policy is too tight is the yield curve the yield curve so the difference between long-term interest rates and short-term interest rates is inverted which means long-term interest rates which are usually higher than short-term interest rates are actually lower than short-term interest rates they got to a little more than a hundred basis points or one percentage Point lower recently now the media is finally picking up on this and talking a lot more about it trying to figure out what it means and we've been saying for for some time that it means that growth and or inflation are going to disappoint on the low side of expectations within the next year so what are your thoughts about Kathy Woods prediction tell us in the comments also don't forget to like And subscribe see you soon with the next video thank you so much for watching
Comments 0