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this is not an accidental infringement this is a deliberate taking of our intellectual property Apple's internal documents that we saw in court showed that they knew their product wasn't good enough to be used medically there needs to be an honest dialogue there needs to be an apology these guys have been caught with their hands in the cookie jar and instead of being embarrassed and doing the right thing they're blaming everybody they're fighting everybody all right that was Joe keani CEO of masimo it's the company at the center of Apple's watchband after the International Trade Commission found Apple infringed on patents from masimo the USR now saying two patents were infringed including the one from that company so great setup to see what Dan Ives who definitely likes apple see what he has to say he's senior Equity Analyst at wedbush joining uh Katie uh Manis and myself here in studio great to have you here happy holidays you too great to be here is it going to be a happy year year for Apple it feels like it's going to get off to a rough start I think it's time to get out the popcorn cuz in my opinion this is the next stage of I think the growth phase in copertino and I think look if you look what happen how do you like factor in this kind of stuff I can't buy a watch I need a new watch and I can't buy it right now look we're talking less than 1% of disruption from Apple watch you know in terms of in the actual quarter and I think look it just speaks to they're going to have patent issues like this on Healthcare but there's a Renaissance of growth on iPhone units Services double digits and that's why I think a lot of the Bears right now they're deep in those caves in hibernation mode I think a year from now we have a $4 trillion Mar cap on Apple you say the birs had a great fictional story okay a Netflix fictional Netflix fictional story we all want to be in it that Apple I got to hand it to you this shirt just screams you know full full of confidence full of vigor but you look at the China story so make make sense of this for us how you get to $4 trillion when you still got the government pushing back against Apple products it was a headline just in December I mean is that myth or is that a headwind I I think it's a headwind and ultimately my view in terms of China is that I'm not saying it's roses and champagne in Beijing with apple but we are seeing growth and that's something we've seen come out of Asia checks even over the last week because you have a 100 million iPhones in China in the window of an upgrade opportunity as those upgrade and look for Huawei it's a good phone but realistically it's an iPhone 12 I'm seeing from an actual functionality perspective so I do think that it's a head one they have to contend with but it is the hearts and lungs of the Apple story and that's why a lot of the Bears at 500 billion a trillion trillion and a half two Trill it's all about the China three trillion now it's all three trillion I think going to forun it's always about that big bad wolf the China store and the actuality China's actually been fuel in the engine well let's talk about what the Bears are saying right now because they're saying you think about in terms of the product lineup that Apple really hasn't had a hit since the airpods and that was all the way back in 2016 so you talk about this new growth but from the product lineup where is that going to come from well first off the install base it's unparallel it's the best install base in the world so just from an install base perspective you have 250 million iPhones in a window of an upgrade opportunity I think that's why iPhone 15 so far Christmas came early a strong holiday season but for 2024 and German's talked about this as well I believe you're going to have not just new phones that come out from an iPhone 16 but we believe you're going to have the Apple the iPhone app store which is going to be an AI App Store focused on AI apps that's going to be something that's going to be incremental for services and I think that's very important you combine it with Vision Pro and we believe more and more products coming out they Flex the muscles Dan is there a bear story though on Apple I mean I think if Tom Keem was here and I know this is how we feel we are an apple family and when somebody goes to buy something like no sorry you can't do that it's got to be an Apple product because that's been our infrastructure that's our network no green text bubbles okay none of that exactly although there's an app that I think full full people but I just that installed base I'm looking at what 2024 Revenue estimate of $397 billion like every time the Apple Numbers cross they're off the charts even if the growth isn't significant there's still that installed base is enough to keep a lot of and if Keane was here would would he be focused on and kind of is we keen's here just like M I'm an incarnation of Tom ke this is the holog I am I am Keen holog it's an AI it's AI generator good morning but is there story but look realistically it's about Valu look if you look at valuation you look at the cash flow generation of Apple that we're going to see over the coming years the E that margins are expanding that the bear store it's look a lot of the Bears they just look at their spreadsheets on Park AV in their you know in their tow saying this isn't expensive so you don't have a bear story for Apple at all because to me the be story it's valuation it's China and I think at that point it's it's a headwin but it's more fictional Netflix story than reality that's going to hurt them and then it's just more competition but it also it comes down to valuation and that's why this year I think the Bears they focus so much on valuation instead of the actual underlying growth story that's happening not just Raa but we believe it's the start of a new tech bull market for Tech I mean and this is this is your thesis for next year which is about I mean 2023 was a year in which every time we saw an AI story evolved Microsoft wait we were talking about AI this year just just a little Ai and O but if you didn't have a yeah I know I've got yeah so tempted by a zenic rather than the treadmill but on a slly more serious note C an AI have been the dominant forces as well as balance sheets in Tech I put those three together and let's let's just put Apple aside for a moment cloud and AI how do I disaggregate who's going to perform well in this what's going to make a cloud aade and an AIA grade stock yeah and I think you hit on and what's really a key point if you look at what's happened with the Delan Redmond at the top of that mountain from a cloud perspective now this is more mization for the hyperscale players for Microsoft for Amazon for Google we believe for every $100 of cloud spend the last four or five years there's 35 to 40 incremental AI spend that's what I'd say for when you look at Microsoft you look at Google this is going to be just a new frontier of growth and then of course you have the Godfather of AI Jensen Nvidia this is really just starting what we view as a 1995 Moment The Godfather of AI J Top performing stock in the S&P 500 it's the biggest Tech trans 30 years haven't seen since 1995 start of the internet and we believe this is actually the beginning of the next phase of this B market I just want to know are there a million AI ETFs that have all sudden come on you watch that market uh there were there's a few dozen that were launched way before uh we started talking about AI around this time last year but I do want to switch gears here and talk about EV demand because this has been uh one of the stories that's really emerged it just feels like all of these automakers really uh miscalculated how much demand there would be for EVS and now you're seeing those production targets get cut how does that factor into what how you're thinking about Tesla is that a bare case for Tesla or does Tesla just command more of maybe a shrinking pie yeah K I think that's a great Point look right now it's Tesla's World everyone else paying rent when it comes to electric vehicles and I think they're doubling down you look what's happened Detroit GM Ford actually peeling back a little from electric vehicles some of the forign auto makers look demand's definitely softened price Wars have come through but a lot of those storms have now passed I think for for Tesla specifically unit volume looks strong in China I think this is going to be a a record quarter for China you know in terms of Q4 you go into next year I think demand actually starts to accelerate a bit relative to where people thought I think for the overall industry it's still a massive transformation but now you're starting to maybe peel back a bit terms of Okay this not going to 40% penetration maybe it's 2530 Dan 30 seconds China is the rallying Cry of the Bears when it comes to Apple so too when it comes to Tesla you think about all those Chinese EV makers how does Tesla compete overseas they've done it I mean I think a lot of the price War it was look this was a poker move for the ages by musk cut prices focus on units and that's why right now this has been Flex the muscles in Beijing for not just Tesla but of course for Apple despite bare noise um you know before we started we showed a piece on drones just real quickly 25 seconds is there a drone playe for drone play for you I mean all of the company Amazon's in it Walmart's everybody's in it and there's individual startups yeah look I think that's pass I remember being a CES years ago Dr F yeah I think that's look that's why you have to separate m is like yes yes no but you separate hype from the real there's there's parts that market that are growth but you look at AI this is the super bow in terms of uh Tech Market we're going to have a bull Tech Market in 2025 too I think this bull Tech Market goes we leave for another two years that's why right now it's getting the popcorn out wow that's a lot of popcorn all right always fun to talk with you great thanks for having so appreciate thanks for coming in the studio happy New Year Den IES of course of wed Bush uh check out his research and of course his calls on things like apple and just really the tech Market overall
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