저자: CathieWood추정,채널WealthyValue · 외국인
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2021년 11월 시장 분석 영상으로, 시장 상승 배경에 자본 유입과 높은 밸류에이션이 있으나 지속 불가능하다는 경계론과 인플레이션 우려 완화를 주장함. 첫 줄 결론: 자산 시장 랠리는 지속 불가능해 보이며, 인플레이션은 낮아질 것이라는 입장이 유지됨. 채권·규제 시장: 스테이블코인 규제안 발표를 시장이 긍정적으로 받아들였으며 예상된 내용이었다고 언급. 비트코인: 뉴욕시장 등 일부 시장이 급여의 비트코인 지급을 언급했고, 잭 도시가 비트코인만 지지한다고 발언해 긍정적으로 평가함. 구체적 가격 목표 없음. 채권시장: 낮은 인플레이션 또는 디플레이션 진영에 가깝다고 평가하며 달러 강세를 반인플레이션 요인으로 봄. 암호화폐·NFT·주택: 인플레이션 헤지 자산으로 볼 수 있다고 언급. 주식과 채권도 자산이며 모든 시장이 랠리 중이라고 진단. 소비 행태: 밀레니얼 세대가 상품·서비스 대신 암호화폐, NFT, 주식에 투자하는 경향이 보이며, 이로 인해 돈의 유통속도가 떨어지고 있다고 분석. GDP: 실질 GDP 성장률 2%는 재고 증가가 견인했고 실질 최종판매는 소폭 마이너스였다고 지적. 주택시장: 아이비 젤먼은 주택 버블 붕괴를 예측했으며, 아이바이어 일부가 시장 불안정을 이유로 철수. 사모펀드의 대규모 주택 매입은 지속 불가능하다고 평가. 인플레이션: 연준 의장 입장은 일시적이라는 것이며, 통화 증가율은 약 12.8%로 안정적이라고 언급. 다만 발표 지표가 예상보다 높게 나오고 있음을 인정하며 인플레이션이 낮아질 것이라는 입장은 유지. 재정정책: 인프라 법안은 통과될 가능성이 높으나, 경제·사회 인프라 법안은 중간선거 이후까지 지연될 것으로 전망. 스윙스테이트 유권자의 세금 제안에 대한 반대를 근거로 듦. 출연자 전망 요약: 자산 랠리는 지속 불가능하고 인플레이션은 크게 낮아질 것으로 예상하나, 비트코인·주택·주식 등 개별 자산의 구체적 가격 목표는 제시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
with the debt markets pricing at a pretty high chance of default uh markets reacted as you would expect a vast amount of capital pouring into the space and that's been pushing up valuations that's kind of the backdrop of this rally right that is unsustainable and we're also seeing a lot of pre-market buying and the final thing i'll talk about is is bitcoin just some very interesting news three regulators got together and wrote a paper which uh basically saying this is how we'd like to regulate uh stable coins and the market took it very positively no surprises this had all been um articulated and expected in in some way as far as bitcoin uh specifically we thought some uh there were a couple of very good moments this week uh eric adams who just was elected mayor of new york city said he would accept pay in um in bitcoin and the miami uh mayor said he would accept much more than i can't remember the time frame uh in his salary in in bitcoin so we have some friendly competition uh they won't both want bitcoin uh in their states so bitcoin developers and the bitcoin ecosystem which is fantastic uh and then square jack dorsey when asked on a square earnings call today uh would you um consider uh supporting any other cryptocurrency and he said no just bitcoin bitcoin is the native currency of the internet and so we thought that was very interesting the bond market is uh is squarely in the lower inflation if not deflation camp the dollar the dollar's going up uh that is an anti-inflationary force crypto crypto is in the inflation camp if you if you think about uh bitcoin as being a hedge against inflation if that's how you're thinking about it or nfts being a hedge collector collectible a hedge against inflation that could be uh in the inflation camp as could housing these are are real assets yes and they can be hedges against inflation but the stock market and the bond market are also assets and uh we've got all markets rallying all markets are rallying and could this mean therefore that uh velocity is going down the velocity of money what does that mean if consumers are spending their money on assets instead of goods and services then what's happening is all of the money printing that people think is going to cause permanent inflation in the price of goods and services that that is wrong that it's actually moving into assets so velocity involves gdp and money so the velocity of money has been coming down because people have been saving and putting more money into assets is that what's going on here well in the gdp report this week i think it was or maybe it was last week real gdp growth was 2 a huge disappointment but what the headlines did not capture is if you looked into the guts of the gdp report what you would have found was the only reason gdp grew was inventories and everybody thinks were terribly short of inventories real final sales so this is taking out inflation real final sales were slightly negative now could it be and and i'm seeing this behavior on the part of millennials could it be that they would prefer not to spend on goods and services but to invest especially in crypto and nfts and and that and stocks so very interesting there but in terms of housing as an inflation indicator ivy zellman of zellman research uh came out this week she made a fantastic call on the housing uh bubble and bust uh um in oh well starting in 0.506 and she was right just a little early um she is very concerned that the housing prices we're seeing now are not sustainable and for for a few reasons um there there is a lot of speculation so i buying so that's when online uh brokers real estate brokers are willing to buy a home from someone who wants to sell renovate it and flip it quickly and take friction out of the home selling and buying process uh well one of the major eye buyers out there this week uh basically pulled out of that market and said this is unstable this is an unstable situation we're losing money we're not going to bet the company on it and i thought wow okay that suggests something's changing in the housing market we're also seeing massive inflows on the part of private equity because and they and we have since 0.809 they've made huge amounts of money from real estate and they're continuing to pump more buying up large tracts of homes all over the country and then selling them off at a profit um after renovating that is unsustainable and we're also seeing a lot of pre-market buying i think one of the the controversies out there is his contention the inflation we're seeing right now is transitory and uh he's sticking to that line others on the fed board are becoming a little a bit more concerned the money growth rate is still around 12.8 percent that's where it has been since the beginning of the third quarter so it has stabilized there interestingly down from 27 uh during the depths of the coronavirus crisis uh so nothing changing there so much but um the question about transitory or not let's think a little bit more about that the market is going up uh if the market were going up i i would imagine that uh fears of inflation were diminishing but they do not seem to be the headlines and actually some of the statistics that we've seen coming out are are quite surprising on the high side they're certainly surprising me so let's talk about why inflation might not be transitory and and i'll cut to the quick and tell you uh we do believe uh that inflation is going to come down dramatically so we have not changed our point of view but let's let's be fair and balanced about this and and make sure uh that we do understand what's going on out there fiscal policy uh i think uh the elections this this week were a bit of a wake-up call to congress to get something done uh and yet uh i'm i'm not sure they're going to get everything they want done so what do i mean by that it looks like the infrastructure bill will go through uh as soon as the house passes it um it will go straight to president biden's desk and he will of course sign it i don't think uh the the economic and social infrastructure bill will go through maybe not until the midterm elections next november not until those past because this election on tuesday showed policymakers are going to have to stay away from controversy and there there are a lot of tax proposals in the economic and social infrastructure bill um that many many voters in the swing states do not like polls are showing they do not like them and i think the election this this week um placed uh i i my my sense is it is now placing from a politician's point of view more weight on on those polls you
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