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So, Jamie Diamond, listen up. America's most influential bankers are issuing an ominous warning about the US economy. Jamie Diamond warned that a hard landing is possible for the US economy, noting that it remains to be seen whether we can actually see one, and expressed concern about stagflation, which he called the worst outcome involving inflation, growth, high unemployment and slow growth.
He noted, "The odds were higher than others think," and noted the similarities to the economic conditions of the 1970s. Diamond highlighted the current economic challenges, saying the unemployment rate has been below 4% for a year and a half to two years, and added that despite a potential recession, consumers are in pretty good shape.
However, he warned that inflation is more flexible than people think and suggested that interest rates could still rise slightly due to ongoing fiscal and monetary stimulus. Okay, this is the same guy who just announced he's going to retire pretty soon. It's not that he, you know, his schedule isn't five years old anymore.
It is much shorter. Er , 68 years old. I mean, some people were talking at one point about this guy potentially running for president. This guy is quite the heavyweight. Vote for him. What do you think of Jamie and what do you think of what he says about the economy? I...I always think, and I'll ask you a question about that.
I always think that no matter how good you are as an economic being, trying to predict something with so many moving parts over a period of time always results in you always being a loser one way or another. Um, and that's why I think when you're an investor, you always have to be cautious and assume that things will go wrong.
That's why you hedge your bets. But that's why I always, no matter who it is, even if it's Jamie Diamond, I'll listen to it, but I'll probably take it with at least a bit of skepticism. I'm not saying it's wrong, but actually trying to predict something with so many moving parts, an organism as complex as the U.S.
economy, which is, I don't know how many trillions of dollars, you know, think about it. What is this $5 trillion economy? Do you know how long ago a billion seconds was? 32 years ago. Mmm. Good. So a trillion seconds, I think, is 32,000 years ago. That's how much a trillion dollars is worth. Just think about it for a second.
Good. So, that's a trillion seconds. Good. That's how much money a trillion dollars is worth. So, you're dealing with a huge thing. So let me ask you this question. You have done very well as an economist. And how correct were you in your predictions? 51%. Thank you. Oh, you can't . No way. Thank you for such an honest answer.
No way. And you, and you're a smart guy who earned his money. No, I mean, for me, it's like, you know, look, obviously, I can bet that I'm 90% confident in what I'm managing. I am confident in everything I manage . OK. So, if someone thinks the future doesn't look bright, it's because you lack confidence in your ability to work, improve, and strategize .
If someone is willing to work, treat people fairly, work until they are exhausted, and constantly try to find ways to improve and perfect themselves, then it is impossible not to be optimistic about the future. I don't know if that makes sense. The number one step from which a person's confidence that everything will work out should come is their ability to improve and understand things.
This is the first. Second, let's talk about finances, things we can't control. Remember how I said that there are a few people who are part of who you can't understand for who they are, and I said that Comey is one of them. This is one of the strange things that has happened in the economy over the last four years.
Almost every time we printed money, gold went up, and not by a little. It grew very fast, didn't it ? Every time we printed money, this time we printed money, gold didn't go up. I had Dan Bangino here yesterday and we talked. He said, “Well, because the money that would normally go into gold as an asset class would go into Bitcoin, and by the way, he might not be wrong.
Okay, he might not be wrong, because Bitcoin is now a trillion dollars in market capitalization by itself. So what if there was no Bitcoin? Where does this money go? Where do libertarians usually invest their money in gold? So, that's an interesting breakdown. Again , everything has happened so fast the last few years.
It hits so quickly that we watch and think, "Dude, this is exactly what's going to happen." That is what will happen, but it has n't happened yet. Another, somewhat more complicated question is the following. Mortgage rates have been hovering at a high 7% for how long? For a year and a half, rates did not increase or decrease, regardless of the timing.
Why has n't the real estate market crashed yet? Why is that? Why didn't real estate prices fall by 25% or 20%. Right? And you know, one of the things we broke down yesterday is that when you print as much money as we've printed in the last few years, that money is already in circulation. So maybe everything just went up 40%.
So even if there is a crash, maybe we are experiencing a 40% crash right now, but we don't see it or feel it because there is 40% more money circulating in the market. Maybe we have a 40 % collapse now. This is that since we started printing money in 2008, the way we did it, and now it's become a habit, the way we measure and forecast the economy has fundamentally changed.
So interesting. So this is the part where, you know, Ray Dalio was talking about how old he was when he wrote the principles? When did Ray Dalio write the principles? When do we read the principles? Five years ago, was it 1920? What year would you say? I love him. You know how many years he's been saying that the next Great Depression is coming .
Yes. This is a guy with 20 billion who says the next Great Depression is coming . How many years has he been wrong? Wrong, that's what I am ... He's also the guy who said cash is no longer king in 2019, and so it is . Suddenly cash is king again. You know what I like about it? The only thing I took from him.
He says, “I can’t beat the market. I have been beating the market for a long time. Can't beat the market. " Just keep this in mind in the long run. If possible, I will add. Yes . When these people make such predictions or give their prediction, I always ask two things. What is their level of trust and who are they loyal to?
We were talking about loyalty with Trump a second ago. So, okay, let's go through the list. Er , Ray Dallio, high level of trust. Devotion. Bridgewater Capital. Okay, he's one of the best hedge entertainers in the world. Uh , you have someone like Jamie Diamond, high level of trust. To whom is he devoted?
Commitment to Chase Bank of America. Yes. Then you have other guys like: Well , Robert Kiyosaki, he makes predictions all the time . He is committed to his brand. He also sells books and courses. Yes. It involves something like a horse day . And then you have these extremists, like that Dent, Harry Dent, this guy.
It was released in 2023. This year, mark my word, it will all go up by 90%. It's all over. It's all over. He is fully prepared for economic preparation for the end of the world. Yes. Economy, stock market up 25%. What are you doing, Harry? But there are crashes. He talked about these " snake" crashes, but crashes are different.
50%, a collapse 25%, a collapse is different. 90%, he said. Remember this? Was that the number? Yes. So what's up? You're talking about the snake oil salesman we just talked about in the previous segment. There are people you can trust. There are people who have loyalty and authority. I don't know why, I think, I think it goes back to the same thing.
People who, you know, like Gary Brea, who he had problems with in the beginning, right? We go here and there . Why? Because it's like I know. Boom. This seems to be the problem. So, there are such people in finance too. No, listen, the main thing in life is not to make all the decisions correctly. Everything in life is like shooting free throws.
Yes. You just want to keep throwing up 60% of the time. You're right about your parenting style. 70%-80. If you are between 60 and 80%, you are doing well. You are getting better at life. But you know, that's not true. You can make a lot of money. You...you...you're going. But, but, but that's the problem.
I was 90% a guy. Think about it. Think about it, were you really like that? Yes. Free throws. You were a 90% free throw. Yes. He wasn't very good at shooting three-pointers. Patrick, the question is , who was standing in front of you when you threw? Yes. I mean, my sidekick, Nova. Yes. This weekend we have a completely new merch drop today.
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If there are a few more, Rob, one for $4.99. There's another one over there, even for $9.99. You choose what numbers are on them . It would be funny if you saw both . But we're releasing... Look at this green and black spinny hat. We are releasing a limited edition of 250 pieces. Uh, and the year on it will be 2024.
Of course, it's military green. And on top of that, we have a bunch of other things you can order. This is what we do. There will be no discount on it. These hats will not be discounted because they are limited. And whoever came first was served. You place an order, and you will receive it. However, for Memorial Day weekend, anyone who places an order for $79, I think, will get...Can you get back to the discount numbers?
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