저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala의 투자 철학을 회고. 성공은 공식이 아닌 운과 시장의 자본배분 효율에 기반하며, 개인은 팁이 아닌 장기투자와 전문 펀드 활용이 낫다고 주장. 트레이딩은 의견이 아닌 가격·거래량 신호 기준으로 하고 손절을 엄격히 하라는 원칙 강조. 인도 시장의 구조적 성장과 자본시장 효율성을 긍정적으로 봄. 특정 종목의 향후 1~3개월 가격 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
Late is not right, and late is not right. There's no formula in business. Rakesh Bhaiya also used to tell us that stock prices should be low. People feel that if he made so much money, there must be some formula. It's not a formula, friend. It's luck. And he used to define luck in a different way.
Bhaiya used to come to our office. Even today there's a temple in the office. He was a big believer in God and elders. He used to define luck, and above our temple it is written, "We God, God and Elders Blessing." That's the same thing, friend, I think. Bhaiya had a very unique approach.
Suppose you are Bhaiya's friend. You would come to Bhaiya's room, where he was watching all the terminals, and you'd say, "Rakesh, what do you want to buy?" Suppose at that time Bhaiya was investing in Lupin. This is a real story. He'd say, "I'm buying Lupin. If you want to buy, take it, you can go and buy it." I once asked Bhaiya about this. A CFO from Kolkata had come, and he told the exact same story. Bhaiya was buying Lupin, and he told him, "Take Lupin." I was a little ticked off, friend. "You're buying, why are you telling him to buy?" So, Prashant, if the stock price increased because I bought it, then this market wouldn't be here. Who am I? I'm nothing in this market. Lupin's stock price will only increase if the company's performance improves. Then the performance will increase. I have a view that probably the performance will be better, so I'm taking my risk behind the stock. He's taking his risk. If Lupin's stock price increases, I have zero hand in it. The entire work has been done by Deshbandhu Gupta and his daughters. I was lucky that I took a point of view on them. This guy was lucky that I told him the risk is his, even if he doesn't do it.
What I'm trying to tell you is that he consistently tried to explain to us that in any business, you always invest in the realm of possibilities. Here's the flip question: then how did Rakesh Jhunjhunwala become such a big brand? Because if his investing money hadn't done anything in the market, it wouldn't have happened. Many people have earned much more money than he did, correct? But they didn't become such a big brand. There are many people who would be kings and queens in the stock market, who earned crores of rupees by manipulating at their own level, not by manipulating but by genuine luck, and probably earned more money than Rakesh Jhunjhunwala sir. It's possible, but they didn't become such a brand.
How did just one brand become so big in India? Because there was only one person who spoke for himself. He didn't wear his heart on his sleeve. Even today, our Prime Minister would probably be more bullish on India than him, but otherwise I haven't seen a bigger bull on India than him. His thinking was about where the country would grow. Secondly, he was thinking that to grow the country, to grow our GDP, the capital market is of immense importance. What is the difference between capital allocation in India and China? In India, the capital markets allocate capital. If you are efficient, you will get money; if you are inefficient, you won't. In China, because it's an autocracy, the state allocates capital, so it makes no difference. That's why China's banks are in trouble. Indian companies, our top 100 Nifty companies, have the highest ROE among any companies in the world. Because the market allocates capital, if you are efficient, you will get capital, and you'll start becoming more efficient.
Bhaiya would go and educate Indian investors. He was the first person who would go on CNBC and talk about India's structural story: why everybody should believe in India, why everybody should invest in the Indian stock market. He used to tell people that investing isn't a part-time job; it's a full-time profession. Don't run after tips. Tips are not the engine to wealth. Be a long-term investor. Don't try to manage your capital yourself; give it to mutual fund guys. They're professionals, and they know how to build wealth.
Your question is right. Bhaiya had two business models. One was trading, through which his capital was built. The other was investing, through which his wealth was built. He was among the very few people I have seen in my life who could build wealth through both trading and investing. If you come to our office, we have 10 commandments of trading. Bhaiya had another 10 commandments of investing. They weren't formulaic commandments. When they trade, their mindset is different. They never do day trading and never do week trading. They don't buy Nifty today to sell tomorrow. They have a view of Nifty, and that view is formed on the basis of the country's growth versus the results.
Now, if you look at Nifty, there are profits of 30 companies within Nifty. You can calculate the EPS of Nifty. Nifty trades at a P/E multiple today. Speaking of Nifty trading in the stock market, the one-year forward P/E trades today at about 18 times, against 25. In Nifty, each company's market cap is given a weightage: financials have a weightage of 35, consumer has 18. For example, they used to study the balance sheets of the Nifty 30 companies. We were eight people in research, and we used to study more than eight people like Rakesh Bhaiya every day. On that basis, all the macro information coming in starts to form a view.
He used to tell me, "Prashant, you take me to any country and make me sit in front of the screen, and we will make money." As a trader, we never trade on opinion; we trade based on price difference. When they look at the screen, they see what volume is going on, which stock is increasing, and whether it's increasing with volume or decreasing. You take your decision based on the sentiment of the market, and the watches are reflected in the volume. They never trade on whether they're right or wrong. If I've taken a point of view and the market is telling me my view is wrong, then we tighten the stop loss. So the first commandment of trading is that you trade on the basis of price, not on the basis of opinion. Your first loss is your best loss.
We never confused trading with investing. Whether it's Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, Radhakishan Damani, Ramdeo Agarwal, or Nemish Shah, I learned one thing from all of them that we could not implement. Very few decade-long compounding stories exist in the world. You'll see someone growing for a year, or for seven years, but if you match the decade-compounded growth of 15–20% over 40 years, you'll be amazed. They had the wisdom that if you get a compounding story, don't sell it, because you'll get only one or two such opportunities in life.
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