저자: WarrenBuffett · 외국인
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결론: 버핏은 시장 방향에 대한 예측을 하지 않으며, 주가 하락을 장기 투자자에게 유리한 기회로 본다. 주가 심리에 대한 견해: 주식 시장은 투자자의 감정과 무관하게 움직이며, 보유자의 기대나 애정에 반응하지 않는다. 따라서 시장 방향에 대한 개인의 선호는 의미가 없다. 하락 선호 근거: 대부분의 투자자는 향후 10년간 순매수자에 가깝기 때문에, 장기적으로는 주가가 낮을수록 유리하다. 이는 생필품을 살 때 가격이 내려가길 바라는 것과 같은 논리다. 투자 방식: 시장이 하락하면 그날 살 만한 매물을 더 열심히 찾아본다. 주식 시장은 회사들의 거대한 슈퍼마켓과 같다. 필독서 추천: 벤저민 그레이엄의 『현명한 투자자』 8장(시장 변동에 대한 태도)과 20장(안전마진)을 투자에서 가장 중요한 글로 꼽는다. 19세 때 8장을 읽고 깨달음을 얻었다고 회상한다. 운과 삶에 대한 견해: 본인이 세상에서 상위 1% 안에 드는 큰 행운을 누렸다고 말하며, 태어난 환경과 시대, 시장경제에 맞는 기질이 성공을 가져왔다고 본다. 인생 설계 비유: 태어나기 24시간 전 '지니'가 나타나 사회 규칙을 설계하라고 한다면, 어떤 집단에 태어날지 모르는 상태에서 공정하고 생산적인 체제를 설계해야 한다는 '난자 복권' 비유를 든다. 일과 삶: 좋아하는 사람과 일하고, 좋아하지 않는 사람과 돈을 위해 거래하지 않는 것이 행복의 조건이라고 말한다. 이미 부유하다면 돈을 위해 결혼하듯 사업하는 것은 어리석다고 본다. 특정 종목·자산 언급: 없음(특정 종목의 가격 방향 예측 없음). 리스크: 시장 하락 자체를 예측하지 않으며, 장기 투자 관점에서의 발언이다.
다듬은 글
long long well I yeah I've got no idea where the Market's going to go I prefer it going down but I but I have you know my preferences have nothing to do with it the the market knows nothing about my feelings uh you know that's one of the first things you have to learn with a stock you know you buy 100 shares of General Motors now all of a sudden you have this feeling about General Motors I mean if it goes down you may be mad at it you may say well if it just go up to what I paid for it you know my life will be wonderful again or if it goes up you may say how smart you were and how you and General Motors had this love affair and everything you've got all these feelings stock doesn't know you own it stock just sits there it doesn't care what you paid it doesn't care that you owned it or anything so any feeling I have about the market is not reciprocated I mean it is the ultimate it is it is very cold shoulder we're talking about here and anybody that is going to be a net s practically everybody in this room is more likely to be a net buyer of stocks over the next 10 years than they are a net seller so every one of you should prefer lower prices I mean if you're going to be a net Eater of hamburger in the next 10 years you want hamburger to go down unless you're cattle cattle producer and if you're going to be a buyer of Coca-Cola and you don't own Coke stock you hope Coke the price of coke goes down I mean you're looking for it to be on sale this weekend at your Supermarket you want it to be down on the weekends not up on the weekends when you're going to attend the supermarket your Stock Exchange is a big Supermarket of companies and you're going to be buying stocks what do you want to have happen you want those stocks to go down way down and uh you know you will make better buys then and later on 20 years from now 30 years from now when you're in a period when you're dissaving or when your heirs dissave for you after you're gone I mean that then you may care about higher prices but I I find people that was one of the there's a chapter eight in Ben Grahams intelligent investor about the attitude towards stock market fluctuations and that and the chapter 20 on the margin of safety are the two most important essays ever ever written on investing as far as I'm concerned because when I read chapter 8 when I was 19 I I figured you know I mean what I what I just figured out what I just said but it was it's obvious I didn't figure it out myself though it was it was explained to me i' probably gone another hundred years if I had still thought it was good when my stocks were going up uh now we want we want things to go down but I have no idea what the stock market's going to do I never do I never will it it's not something that that I think about at all when it goes down I feel I look harder at what I might buy that day uh because I know there's more likely to be some merchandise there that I can use my money effectively and okay um Warren we'll take one more question from the audience okay I'll let you pick who gets it then you could be the guy want the question right back uh if you uh maybe again uh studing your life again then what would you like to do to to have a happier life yeah I would say and this is going to sound disgusting question is what would I do if I going to live over again to have a happier life uh well I the only thing I might do is select a genan pool where people live to be 120 or something that I came from but I've I've been I've been extraordinarily lucky I mean it it uh I use this example I'll take a minute or two because I think it's worth thinking about a little bit let's just assume that it was 24 hours before you were born and a genie came to you and he said uh he said herb uh you look very promis and I've got a big problem I've got to design the world in which you're going to live and he said I decided hell with it's too tough you design it so you got 24 hours you figure out what the social rules should be the economic rules uh the governmental rules and you're going to live under those and your kids are going to live under them your kid their kids are going to live under and you say I can design anything and jie says yeah you can do it and you say Well there must be a catch he says well there is a catch you don't know whether you're going to be born black or white rich or poor male or female uh infirm or able-bodied bright or all you know is you're going to take one ball out of a barrel that's got 5.8 billion you're going to participate in what I call the ovarian Lottery you're going to get one ball out of there and that's and that is the most important thing that's ever going to happen to you in your life because that is going to control whether you're born here or in Afghanistan whether you're born with an IQ of 130 or an IQ of 70 uh it's going to determine a whole lot and you're going to go out of the world and you're going to have that ball what kind of a world do you want to design well I think that's a good way to look at Social question because not knowing which ball you're going to get you're going to want a ball that you're going to want a system design a system that's going to produce lots of goods and services because you're going to want people on balance to live well and you're going to want it that produces more and more so your kids live better than you do and your your grandchildren of better than the kids but you're also going to want a system that if it does produce lots of goods and services does not leave behind a person accidentally got the wrong ball and is not well wired for this particular system see I'm I'm ideally wired for the system I fell into here I mean I came out and I got something that enables me to allocate Capital you know nothing so wonderful about that if all of us were stranded on a desert island you know and we all landed there we were never going to get off of it the most valuable person would be the one that could raise the most rice you know uh over time and and you know I could say why I going to allocate Capital how about paying meal and you wouldn't get very excited about that so I am in the right place I mean gate says if I'd been born you know a few million years ago I'd been some animals lunch you know he says you can't run very fast you can't climb trees you can't do anything just you know just been chewed up in the first day so he says you're lucky you were born today and I and I am but the question getting back one question you can ask yourself incidentally is here is this barrel with 5.8 billion balls everybody in the world if you could put your ball back and they gave you and then they took out got at random 100 other balls and you had to pick one of those would you put your ball back in now those 100 Balls that you're going to get out roughly uh five of them will be American so there 95 versus five so you're only going to have five ball if you want to be in this country you're only going to have five balls now left you know half of them are going to be women half of them going to be men I'll let you all decide how you vote on that one uh half of them are going to be below average intelligence half are going to be above me you want to put your ball back most of you I think will not want to put that ball back to get a hundred so what you're saying is I'm in the luckiest 1% of the world right now right now sitting in this room top 1% of the world well that's the way I feel I mean I've been lucky to be born where I was because it was 50 to1 against me in in the United States when I was born lucky with parents lucky with all kinds of things then lucky to be wired in a way that in a market economy pays off like crazy for me doesn't pay off for somebody who's absolutely as good a citizen as I am you know leading Boy Scout Troops teaching Sunday school whatever raising fine families but it just doesn't happen to be wired in the same way I am so I've been extremely lucky so I would like to be lucky again and and if I'm lucky then the way to do it is to play out that game and and and and do something you enjoy you know all your life and be associated with people you like I only work with people I like you know I I don't I don't if I could make a hundred million by buying a business with some guy that caused my stomach to churn I'd say no because I say that's just like marrying for money which probably isn't a very good idea in any circumstances but if you're already rich it's crazy right I am not going to marry for money so I would do I would I would really do almost exactly uh what I've done except I don't think i' have bought the US Air thanks
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