저자: 워런버핏 · 외국인
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결론: 대형주와 소형주를 구분하지 않고, 이해 가능한 사업·신뢰할 수 있는 경영진·매력적인 가격이라는 기준만으로 투자한다는 원칙을 강조하며, 특정 자산의 단기 가격 방향에 대한 예측은 없음. 대형주 vs 소형주: 본인이 대형주에 투자하는 이유는 운용 규모(약 750~800억 달러)로 인해 소수의 대형 기업에만 투자할 수 있기 때문이며, 10만 달러를 투자한다면 기업 규모와 무관하게 이해 가능한 사업을 찾을 것이라고 말함. 최근 10년간 미국 대형 기업들의 자기자본이익률이 약 20%에 달해 기대를 크게 웃돌았고, 금리 하락과 자본수익률 상승으로 대형주 밸류에이션이 크게 재평가되었다고 진단. 이것이 영구적인지는 회의적으로 봄. 소형 우량 기업 사례: 과거 2,500만 달러 규모의 소형 사탕 회사를 인수한 경험을 언급하며, 같은 기회가 있다면 지금도 매수하고 싶다고 말함. 중요한 것은 사업의 확실성이라고 강조. 부동산 간접투자 vs 직접투자: 부동산은 최근까지 비공개 자산이었으나 증권화가 확대되고 있음. 그러나 법인 형태는 이중과세 문제로 주주 수익을 줄이며, 리츠(REIT)는 이중과세를 피하지만 운영비가 높아 수익률이 약 1~1.5%포인트 깎인다고 평가. 소액 투자자에게는 리츠가 유일한 대안일 수 있으나, 100만~1,000만 달러 이상 자산가라면 직접 부동산을 소유하는 편이 낫다고 봄. 부동산 기업 평가: 일부 대형 토지회사를 시장가치 대비 과도하게 높게 평가하는 분석이 있다며, 부동산은 대량 매각이 어려워 주식과 같은 유동성이 없다고 지적. 리츠 섹터는 올해 시장에서 부진했고 향후 크게 할인 거래될 가능성도 열려 있으나, 경영진이 자신의 수입 흐름 때문에 주주 이익과 엇갈릴 수 있음. 증자 직후 '주가가 매우 싸다'는 기업의 모순적 행태도 비판. 투자 기회: 부동산 분야에서는 흥미로운 기회를 거의 발견하지 못했으며, 대규모 거래나 장기자본관리(LTCM) 유형의 상황이 발생하면 관심을 가질 것이라고 언급. 다만 가격이 충분히 매력적이지 않을 것으로 봄. 출연자 전망: 시장의 단기 방향에 대한 구체적 예측은 없으며, 질의응답 마지막 질문(하락장이 순저축자에게 유리하다는 이론)에 대해서는 영상 내 답변이 없음.
다듬은 글
yeah what do you think that the market is favored the large cap F chip stocks over the small cap stock the next CLE question is large caps versus small caps and why have large caps overperformed I I don't know the answer to that we we don't think uh we don't we don't care whether companies large cap giant Cap Middle cap small cap micro cap doesn't make any difference I mean the only question us is can we understand the business do we like the people running it and does it sell for a price that is attractive from our my personal standpoint running birkshire now because we've got Pro fora for Gen R I don't know what we have maybe 75 or 80 billion dollar to invest and I only want to invest in about five things so I I'm really limited to very big companies but if I were investing $100,000 I wouldn't care whether something was large cap or small cap or anything it I would just look for businesses I understood now I I think that on on balance large cap companies as businesses have done extraordinarily well the last 10 years and way better than people anticipated they would do I mean you really have American Business earning close to 20% on equity and that's something nobody dreamed of and that's being produced by very large companies in aggregate so you've had this huge revaluation upward of in because of lower interest rates and then much higher Returns on Capital and you know if if American Business is really a bond disguised bond that earns 20% has a 20% coupon it's much better than if it's a bond with a 13% coupon and and that's that's happened with big companies in recent years whether it's permanent or not it's another question I'm I'm skeptical of that but uh but I don't I I I I it I wouldn't even think about except for questions of how much money we run I wouldn't even think about the size of the the business a good small Seas candy was a $25 million business one we bought it I me if I could find one just like it now even as big as we are you know I'd love to buy it and uh just it's the certainty of it that that that counts yeah way over there uh you mentioned earlier that in buying stock almost every company's public and one thing until the last five years real estate has been primarily private we're now seeing a great U securization of real estate and what is your insights into the yeah you talking about realate there been securitization enormous securitization of of of of of the debt too of real estate and that is one of the items right now that is really clogging up uh the the capital markets I mean the the mortgage back Securities are they're just not moving uh in in commercial mortgage back not Residential Mortgage back and so that's but I think you're you're directing your question at equities probably and and the equities if you leave out the corporate form has been a lousy way to own equities I mean you you've interjected a corporate income tax into something that people individually have been able to own with with a single tax and by having the normal corporate form you get a double taxation in there you really don't need with real estate and it takes away too much of the return REITs uh have in effect created a conduit so that you don't get the double taxation but they also generally have fairly High operating expenses and if you if you get real estate let's just say you can buy fairly simple types of real estate on an 8% yield or thereabouts and you take away maybe close to one or one and maybe even one and a half% by the time you count stock options and everything it's not a terribly attractive way to own it maybe the only way a guy with a th000 bucks or 5,000 bucks can own it but if you have a million dollar $10 million you're better off owning the real real estate properties yourself than sticking some intermediary in between that will get a sizable piece uh of of the return for himself so we have found very little in that field uh uh you'll see an announcement in the next couple weeks that may be lie what I telling you here on one thing so I want I don't want you to think I was double crossing you up here uh but generally speaking we we've seen very very little in that field that gets us excited uh uh there people sometimes get very very confused about they'll look at uh some huge Land Company uh take I'll take one that's that won't evoke any emotional reactions on the part of anybody like Texas Pacific Land Trust which has been around over a hundred years and got a couple million acres in Texas and they'll take the you know they'll sell 1% of their land every year and they'll take that as applying to everything and come up with some huge value compared to the market value but that's nonsense if you really own the property I mean you you know you can't move you can't move 50% of the properties or 20% of the properties it's it's way worse than a no liquid stock so you get these I think you get some very silly valuations placed on a lot of real estate companies by people that don't really understand what it's like to own one and try to move large quantities of property uh it re reeks have behaved terribly in the market this year as you know and it's not at all inconceivable they would become a class that would get so unpopular that they would sell at significant discounts uh from what you could sell the properties for and they could they could get interesting as a class then and then the question is whether the management would fight you in that process because they would be giving up their income stream uh for managing things and their interest might run counter to the shareholders on that I've always wondered about the RS that say you know our our assets are so wonderful and they're so cheap and then they go out and sell stock I mean there's a there's a contradiction in that if they say our stock at 28 is very cheap and then they sell a lot of stock at 28 less than underwriting commission doesn't you know they're either there there's a disconnect there and so but it's a field we look at I mean Charlie and I can understand real estate and uh and we would be open for very big transactions periodically and if there was a long-term Capital Management situation and translated to real estate you know we would be open to that trouble to so many other people would be too that it would be unlikely to go at a price that would that would really get us excited way back there understanding your theory that sort of a Down Market is good for net Savers you can you sort of give us your thoughts as to where the market
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