저자: NourielRoubini · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 실물경기와 금융시장의 괴리가 크고, 신흥국 중 BRICS는 과대평가됐으며 최대 꼬리위험은 유로존 붕괴다. 선진국 경기는 극히 부진하다. 일본은 4차례 침체를 겪었고 유로존은 이중침체(더블딥)에서 헤어나지 못했으며, 미국은 재정긴축 여파로 올해 성장률이 1.5~1.6%에 그칠 것으로 봤다. 신흥국 중 BRICS는 과대평가됐다. 중국 성장률은 8~10%에서 7%대로, 인도는 9%에서 5%로 떨어졌고 러시아·브라질·멕시코·남아공도 저성장이다. 국영기업 확대, 국영은행의 자원배분, 수입대체 산업화, 자원 민족주의 등 시장친화적 개혁의 후퇴가 잠재성장률을 낮추고 있다. 상대적으로 유망한 신흥국으로는 아시아의 말레이시아·필리핀·인도네시아, 라틴아메리카의 칠레·우루과이·콜롬비아·페루, 동유럽의 체코·튀르키예, 아프리카의 보츠와나·모잠비크·앙골라·탄자니아·우간다·르완다·가나 등을 꼽았다. 금융시장은 실물과 달리 주가가 오르는데, 연준·일본은행·유럽중앙은행 등의 유동성 공급이 배경이다. 시장이 위험을 과소평가하고 있다는 취지다. 최대 꼬리위험은 유로존이다. 긴축 피로가 주변부에서 프랑스 등 핵심국으로 확산되고 있으며, 이탈리아·스페인이 3~5년 내 채무조정이나 탈퇴에 몰리면 글로벌 파급이 클 것이라고 경고했다. 출연자 전망: 유로존 디폴트·탈퇴 가능성을 우려하고, 신흥국 중 BRICS 비관·중소 신흥국 낙관.
다듬은 글
there's a gap between advanced economies and emerging markets advanced economies I would say well below 50 we've the eurozone somewhere in the teens emerging markets certainly above 50 but also if fragility you know if you look at advanced economies Japan had a quadruple deep recession and lastly that almost on the verge of a quintuple deep recession that's why they've done massive unprecedented monetary and fiscal easing I was recently in London where they debated whether they're gonna have a triple dip recession or not in the eurozone there is no debate about a triple dip recession because they're still stuck into their deep double-dip recession and I was spreading from the periphery to France in the core of the eurozone and even the United States we have really extremely mediocre economic growth and with this fiscal drag of 2% of GDP we'll be lucky if this year we have a one and a half to 1.6 percent growth now on emerging markets I think especially the bricks have been a bit overhyped used to grow eight to ten percent a few years ago Chinese growth has gone up from ten towards seven or just in India last week wrote now five percent from nine Russia with this all prices growing barely three and a half percent Brazil has heeled less than three percent Mexico three percent and the last member of the BRICS South Africa's a bit of a disaster so even in emerging market I think there is actually significant so that we wrote and there is a gap between the real economy in financial markets right the real economy is are weak but financial markets going higher why it's still a wall of liquidity more easing by the BOJ by the fed by the SMB but they do e soon enough even the ECB so the market seems to be under pricing these risks but just because there is this wall of liquidity but there's this gap between Main Street and Wall Street well you know I do agree on the story that the emerging market gonna be a larger share of the global economy the growing this year 5% close to potential and that's good news advanced economies on average barely 1% and that said that supposes could be long-term trend I was just pointing out that the BRICS within emerging market specifically all of them are moving away from market-oriented reforms to variants of state capitalism not just China and Russia but even other ones things like state-owned enterprises are all in becoming bigger the role of state-owned banks in resource allocation and savings to investments import substitution industrialization resource nationalism and those things are slowing down potential growth of this country so it's not just a slicker quickly a slowdown in emerging markets which countries in particular is that is that emerging as a big problem well you see it in China you see it in Russia you see it in India SID you know in Brazil you see it in South Africa all of the BRICS so I think the bricks have been overhyped and among emerging market I would say in Asia I would prefer other than China in India places like Malaysia or Philippines Indonesia or if we're talking about Latin America rather than Brazil think Chile Uruguay Colombia Peru our greatest success stories are smaller country but greater success stories or you know in Central Europe or Eastern Europe rather than Russia I would say Turkey maybe Czech Republic maybe Azerbaijan maybe Kazakhstan in sub-saharan Africa ting the better store is not South Africa but places like Botswana Mozambique Angola or in East Africa Tanzania Uganda Rwanda or in West Africa Ghana the bone or or Nigeria so I'm just saying even within emerging markets will lump them all together but I think the bricks have been overhyped there are significant problems other countries probably smaller are better stories over time well of all the tail risk I think still the euro zone you know is the biggest one and as I said is austerity fatigue in the core in Balad fatigue so in the periphery umbrella fatigue in the core and right now actually my fear is that the recession is spreading to the core to France for example even German is slowing down a finland without Nokia what is it you know in Belgium in either you have financial problems try and hide that ratio so people talk about the core but maybe German is the only piece of the cord is doing relatively well so I still worry about the future of the eurozone the risk of the other left is orderly defaults eventually some country exit if it's small Greece or Cyprus you can handle it but if the problems of Italy Spain becomes such that you have to restructure their debt and/or exit in the next 3-5 years that's the end of the eurozone will have global consequences so that's the biggest tail risk out
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