저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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그린란드 관련 관세 충격으로 증시 급락. 투기주·모멘텀주 과열(froth) 경고. 메모리 관련주는 반도체 장비주보다 먼저 꺾일 수 있다고 주장. 이익 실현과 현금 확보, 테크 비중 40% 이상이면 축소 권고. 투자클럽 유보적 입장: 테크는 단기 부진, 비테크 분산 선호. Novo Nordisk는 보유 권고(CEO 미팅 후 긍정적 평가).
다듬은 글
Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to Cray America. Other than friends, I'm just trying to save a little bit of money. My job is not just to educate, but to explain how something like this could be happening. So call me at 1800743bc. Tweet me at Jim Kramer. Talk about a jarring session. We're captive to a president who's decided he can wage economic warfare against any country in order to get his way.
In this case, it's against Denmark for refusing to hand over Greenland. Of course, Greenland has nothing to do with our stock market, right? But our president uses tariffs to coersse our trading partners. Even though Wall Street absolutely hates it, and that's what caused today's pain, the house of pain.
With the Dow tumbling 871 points, S&B plunging 2.06%, NASDAQ plummeting 2.39%. Okay, get get this. It could have been worse. But everyone remembers when we sold off hard on tariff worries last spring only for stocks to rebound once the president rolled back most of all day as the market adjusted to the possibility that someone blinks on Greenland next 72 hours.
Something we might find signals by the way when we watch our own Joe Kernan speak to the president tomorrow on the exchange. I had something else in my mind. I want to talk about something that's beginning to really bother me in this market and it does not have all that much to do with Greenland. Tonight we're going to talk about something I despise.
We're going to talk about froth. The process by which we overpay for things that might not be worth as much as we think, maybe much less than we think. We're going to talk about how to preserve gains that might not otherwise be available and how to reposition to to high grade as we call it in the investing club where I should add we have a noon meeting for members on Thursday.
It's an hour long. I think you should join and find out what we're talking about. Let's start with a simple supposition. While many long-term winners have struggled since the beginning of the new year, the speculative stocks and momentum stocks have really caught fire. They're different, very different.
The speculative names are at the heart of the froth. More on that later, but there's been a huge amount of money made in these stocks over the past few weeks, and that's one part of the problem. For the most part, they're companies with no earnings and little in the way of sales. Now, as I teach in how to make money in any market, speculation is a reasonable way to make a lot of money.
But the operative word is make. You haven't made a profit unless you ring the register on some of your gains. Otherwise, you don't have gains, paper gains. That doesn't count. And that's what I suggest you do tomorrow morning. I have a big gain. Let's say you have a big let's say a big gain in stock, okay?
That's that's soared this year. Tomorrow, you're going to take something off the table. If you're up say 50% since the year began, you're crossing over to one of our most important disciplines on mad money. You cannot turn a gain into a loss. We know four months ago that we had a very similar situation to the one we've seen lately.
And back then I excoriated those who failed to take profits and was loud and noisy about it. And I'm doing the same right now tonight. I was right back then and I think I'm going to be right again. Many of you have made more money this year already than you might have made last year or maybe multiple years altogether.
I'm not advocating you sell everything. I'm advocating that you try to take a big percentage of your stock and put it in cash. That way, you're playing with what I call the house's money. You'll still be in. In the old days, I used to advocate wholesale selling of speculative stocks, but I've spent years studying the process of what a speculative stock morphs when it morphs into a long-term investment.
I've gotten much less strict. I now think that you're perfectly justified to pick one speculative name if you own five stocks or even two if you own 10 and let them ride. If they put up big gains, you could gradually ring the register on the way up. But you've also got my blessing to leave part of your position on the table, a large part of it, because when you catch a terrific speculative winner, the long-term gains can be immense, but you got to take something off.
Now, how about a different course of how about the momentum stocks? Now those are the ones that have earnings and and have sales and those stocks have caught fire too. Uh very tough call. These are two there are two kinds of momentum stocks in this market right now. First we got the memory plays. Okay that's the memory and storage.
Sandis mic run segate motion digital. Those stocks are up huge both last year and this year. It seems like every day one or another broker recommends them with a new price target. The whole group rallies accordingly again and again. Even today the memory plays seem unassalable. But I got news for you.
They're not. And that's because there's another set of companies with momentum stocks that are going higher, ever, higher, ever higher. That's the semiconductor capital equipment makers, which are busy trying to create more memory supply. We don't know when supply will catch up with demand because we know there are companies in Japan and Korea that are also trying to pump out as many storage devices as possible to make as much money as possible.
And they're using these very same capital equipment plays, applied materials, land research, and KLA. There will come a day when we will see this is going to happen people when there'll be a marginal increase in disc drives and flash memory chips and then the prices for those products will plummet. You cannot afford to get caught holding a lot of these stocks when that occurs.
It won't be tomorrow. I know. And you'll say, "Well, why didn't you tell me to get out?" No, I don't know when. So, what do you do? After these monster parabolic moves, you need to cut these positions pretty sizably. Take profits. Let the rest run. That's fine. They're great companies, but the unseen competition might be right around the corner.
And then you'll say, "Why didn't he tell me? Why didn't he tell me?" Final group, gold and silver, tough. For some, these are hedges, basically insurers. But for others, they're just speculation. In either case, the moves have been parabolic. You know, you know what I say about parabolic moves. I can justify the gains because these companies like the memory place have actual earnings.
But a parabolic move, no. If you own them because you want precious metals as insurance, I'm not I'll I'll bless it. If you're speculating, you got a remarkable moment to take out your cost basis and let the rest run. One other consideration, we're seeing a changing of the guard in this market. Depending on what you include, it's as much as 40 to 50% of this S&P is tech is tech right now.
And we're noticing the tech, especially large cap tech, is underperforming to start the year. If you want to take a longer term view that everything's fine and tech will come back, all right, I I get that. But I don't agree which is not and that's why we're not doing that for the investing club. Only one of our recent buys is tech as we spread out into many other tremendous secular themes.
Which themes? Non-data center tech, consumer goods, retail, aerospace, banking, healthcare. You saw how those act much better than tech. Uh is tech done? Of course not. But could you have too much tech exposure in your portfolio? Absolutely. If you have 40% tech or more, may I suggest you take some profits?
Put that money in cash. Then wait and see. Guys, I'm really asking you to do this. All right, I asked you to do it in September, October, and I was right. And I really do think I'm going to be right this time. Again, the bottom line, there are better non- tech stocks to own in this frothy market. It's time to diversify.
Remember, you want to make the most amount of money with the least amount of risk. That's what this business is about. And right now, that's simply not tech. Make these changes. And I think you'll be glad you did. No panic, just be smarter. Gil in Virginia. Gil. Yes, Jim. How are you? Uh Jim, uh good to be with you.
Jim, I have question is my question is u with Novo Nordisk coming out with the first one to come out with the oral pill to GLP1 and with Eli Lily coming out with theirs I believe in the spring of this year. Would you consider Novo? I have a pretty big position in that. Would you consider that a buy, hold, or sell going forward?
No, I I would hold it. I met with the CEO last week. I I kind of I like him a lot. Now, I met with Dave Rich from Lily and you know, he's my favorite, but I'm not going to go against owning some Novo. I think they're making a turn here. I think that that head start they have in the pill is very good.
Let's go to Ambarish in Missouri. Ambarish. Hey Jim, longtime listener and second time caller. Love your Thank you. What's up? I'm calling about a small problem I have. Ticker symbol spot Spotify. Held it for a year now. I own 45 shares. Cost basis is 618. The company has solid subscriber growth. Recent US price hikes.
However, it has premium valuations. Competition from Apple and YouTube, Amazon, mixed analyst sentiment. Is this a sell hold or a buy? Um I have been uh watching the stock just shed points and shed points and shed points as the street turns on it because it sells at a very high price during multiple people no longer like the high price or these multiple stocks right now.
We have to obey that and watch it come in and own it for the long term or sell it and come back later which may be the way that I would approach Spotify. All right. Look, if most of your money is tied up in tech stocks, I think you got to take some profits. It's time to diversify better. You'll be much better off without so much tech.
And when it comes to speculation, the whole show is going to be devoted to fraud, how to spot it, what to do, and getting out or at least taking profits. Okay. Oh, man. I tell you, I am kicking off my series and what could go wrong in the market after we've had so many things go right for the investors over the past couple years.
Remember, it's not a get out now. It's a take profits on some. Then I'm going on frothw watch to break down why the price action speculative stocks is at the top of my list of concerns with this tape, not the president. And I'll review what happened to the market the last few times we saw this kind of frothy action and how you can prepare for what might come next regardless about what happens with Greenland.
So stay with Kramer. Don't miss a second of MadMoney. Follow Jim Kramer on X. Have a question? Tweet Kramer #madmentions. Send Jim an email to [email protected] or give us a call at 1800743cnbc. Miss something? Head to madmoney.cnbc.com.
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