저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 찰리 멍거의 알리바바 투자 배경은 중국 경제·플랫폼 현금창출력과 저평가 가치투자 논리이며, 규제 리스크를 감수할 수 있는 투자자만 신중히 접근하라는 내용. 멍거의 중국관: 중국 경제 성과는 역사상 최고 수준이며, 자유 발언 없이도 성장이 가능했다는 주장. 중국 체제가 중국에 맞는다는 입장으로, 잭 마의 정부 비판은 오만했다고 평가. 알리바바 투자 근거: 멍거의 최신 포트폴리오에서 3번째 대형 보유 종목(시가 3,700만 달러 이상, 전체의 약 17.6%). 멍거는 본질가치보다 낮게 거래되는 고품질 기업을 선호하는 전형적 가치투자자. 사업 지표: 중국 거래 규모 약 1.2조 달러(연간 상품 거래 총액), 연간 활성 고객 약 8억 9,100만 명, 알리페이 활성 사용자 약 13억 명, 상인 8,000만 명 이상, 금융기관 파트너 2,000곳 이상, 연간 세금 약 45억 달러. 클라우드: 중국 클라우드 인프라 시장 점유율 약 40%(2021년 1분기). 재무 지표: 과거 10년 매출 연평균 성장률 60%, 잉여현금흐름 약 230억 달러, 주가 약 160홍콩달러(하락세). 전망 근거: CBO 추정 중국 GDP가 미국의 2020년 70%에서 2025년 76%, 10년 내 85% 이상으로 확대. 나스닥은 2028년 중국이 최대 경제국이 될 것으로 전망. 중산층 5,500만 명 확대 예상. 다른 투자자 의견: 데이터 로마 기준 72명 슈퍼투자자 중 2분기 최대 매수 종목(17명 매수). 마니시 파브라이는 중국 순풍이 미국 대형 기술주보다 강하다고 평가. 리스크: 중국 규제 리스크, 미국 감사 불가, 잭 마 발언 이후 정부 개입으로 시가총액 750억 달러 이상 증발, 잭 마 3개월 실종. 영상은 해외 기업 투자 시 감당 가능한 손실만 감수하라고 권고.
다듬은 글
well it's natural for people to think their own civilization and their own nation is better than everybody else but everybody can't be better than everybody else you're right the china's economic record among the big nations is the best that ever existed in the history of the world and that's very interesting a lot of people assume that since england led the industrial revolution and always and had free speech early that free speech is required to have a booming economy as prescribed by adam smith but the chinese have proved you don't need free speech to have a wonderful economy they just copied adam smith and left out the free speech and it worked fine for them as a matter of fact it's not clear to me that china would have done better if they'd copied every aspect of english civilization i think they would have come out worse because their position was so dire and the poverty was so extreme they needed very extreme methods totalitarian methods if you will to get out of the fix they they were in so i think what china has done was probably right for china and that we shouldn't be so pompous is to be telling the chinese they ought to behave like us because they like ourselves because we like ourselves and our system it's entirely possible that our system is right for us and their system is right for them warren buffett's right-hand man charlie munger loves china as you can see from his latest daily journal portfolio he had particularly added al-baba's stock the tech giant represents the third largest position in mummer's extremely lean portfolio at a market value of over 37 million dollars and make 17.6 of the whole portfolio this video uncovers why mongoose going all in on alabama at a time when many would fold to uncertainty first and foremost monger is a classic value investor at the end of the day he wants to hold high quality companies that are under price below intrinsic or book value debate continues over if alibaba is that good of a company to invest in just because it is a cash generating machine lbappa is responsible for 1.2 trillion dollars of gross merchandise export per year from china the company attracts over 891 million active annual customers onto various platforms in china they also own alipay an app that transfers money through digital payments that has around 1.3 billion annual active users to put that number into perspective there were 186 million twitter users in 2020.
so we are talking over nine times as many users as one of the most popular social media websites in the world alba currently has more than 80 million merchants and 2 000 partnered financial institutions you know particularly in the case of alibaba they pay around four and a half billion dollars of tax per year and on top of that every transaction made on their e-commerce outlets carries taxes in and of itself in other words alibaba is a huge moneymaker for china not only does this obvious fact hold true for the present but the future looks extremely bright as well if we look at china's production abilities as a whole the united states government-owned congressional budget office estimated that china's economy would expand from 70 of the u.s gtp in 2020 to 76 in 2025 and more than 85 percent in next 10 years nasdaq's website goes one giant step further predicting that china will become the largest economy by 2028 and its per capita income should rise by 50 from 2020 to 2025.
cnbc reports that china's middle class is expected to expand to 55 million people in the near future in other words if china's future middle class was its own country it'd be the third largest by over 150 million people there are going to be an insane amount of working-class citizens who are exposed to and directly impacted by alabama's services every day many people through either necessity or having expendable income will use the products halipapo offers at a rate that's hard to imagine consider not just the aspect of selling products but alibaba's impressive cloud business as well it has about 40 market share in the chinese cloud infrastructure services as for first quarter of 2021 i think that's crucial to alibaba's potential because even when the global workforce returns to some level of normalcy i think globally eyes have been permanently open to the efficiency of cloud technologies which are exploding in scale and demand and we will continue to do so in an increasingly digitized world these factors spur tons of value for alibaba when viewed through bullish eyes intrinsic value often times referred to by economists as true value is an objective valuation of an asset that derives from measurables that encapsulate economic entirety i.e earnings and profitability in relevant economic conditions on a macro level and within the specific asset sector and performance trends speaking of the stock being undervalued let's talk about some of those numbers which i'm sure attract monger as an old-school value investor now with al-baba over the past 10 years has grown its revenue at a compound annual growth rate of 60 and free cash flow is 23 billion us dollars free cash flow is how much money is available at the end of the business cycle from period to period a lot of times these focus on annual free cash flow tells us that it has the full ability to pay its expenses for the foreseeable future and gives a hopeful look at profitability the stock currently trades around the 160 hong kong dollars per share although it's been decreasing with the fears of chinese restrictions i've talked about this in other videos and we'll briefly touch upon it again monger certainly isn't the only super investor banking on that prediction coming true according to data roma which tracks 72 of the world's biggest super investors al-baba was the biggest buy from quarter 2 with 17 super investors buying the stock it now ranks up in the top 10 most held stocks in the smart money portfolio for instance here's what value investor manish pabrai thinks about al baba it's an incredible business i mean it's i mean there's if you look at baba and tencent and you know where they're at and uh the ecosystem and the mood and what they control and you know all of that it's and you know look at the tailwinds from china i mean there's um there's a lot to me to like uh even more than the large u.s tech uh just because i think that the tailwinds are so much stronger and uh there's there's some serious barriers to entry obviously high-level investors are going to do their own intense due diligence and investing to fulfill their own needs but at that level we know many of these investors are closely connected with each other and when someone like charlie monker who has been warren buffett's right hand man makes such a strong declaration for a company you can bet the house he is not doing it blindly and on principles he has been following for years of course that doesn't stop those of us with far smaller bank accounts to reason that there is way too much volatility stemming from regulation risks and lack of trust to invest in alabama even if we push china's tight restrictions on alibaba's side there's the issue of even trusting alipapa's performance numbers china doesn't even let united states regulators to audit a chinese firm however al-baba do maintain a pretty solid track record of consistent cash flows being backed by goldman sachs softbank and even being owned by yahoo shows that the chinese tech firm is alleged investment in the mid-2000s alibaba started filing with the scc to gain more trust from investors alibaba's numbers seem very trustworthy but the people who are in charge of the government are a bit sketchy there's no doubt that one of the biggest risks in entrusting alipapa in anyone's portfolio right now is china's ongoing love-hate relationship with the company and tight restrictions on the chinese tech sector all of this started when ceo jack ma voiced his intention to essentially use alipi as a means to give more power to the people than china's extremely powerful and nationalized spanx ma accused chinese banks of operating with a pawnshop mentality he had also claimed that the authorities were trying to use the same ways they used to manage a railway station to provide modern finance solution because of this chinese regulators had to involve in the company's management and this caused alibaba's market share to fell over 75 billion dollars and ma ultimately went missing for three months on the other hand monger just sends from this opinion actually speaking out against ma and here's what he had to say on the matter i think jack mao was very arrogant to be telling the chinese government how dumb they were and how stupid their policies were and so forth considering their system that is not what he should have been doing you can clearly see monger isn't bothered by china's response the big reason many like him shared that opinion reverts to the huge revenues and tax dollars help oppo generates for china that i mentioned near the start of this video alibaba and tencent are arguably china's biggest cash cows alibaba has been called china's golden goose and what's good for the goose is certainly good for china add up all these factors and it sums up why i think charlie monger continues to believe so strongly in alibaba when many stay away i'd advise all of you to do your own due diligence as always be extremely cautious when investing in any foreign company only invest would you comfortable losing if you do make the long-term play like monger is making let us know in the comment section below don't forget to like the video and subscribe for more informative hopefully entertaining coverage on the world of business and investing
Comments 0