저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
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피터 린치의 투자 원칙 6가지를 정리한 영상으로, 특정 종목이나 자산의 가격 전망을 제시하지 않는다. 주식 투자에서는 변동성을 견딜 수 있는 심리가 핵심이며, 시장 하락 시 공포 매도나 상승 시 탐욕 매수를 피해야 한다는 주장이다. 워런 버핏의 '남들이 두려워할 때 탐욕스럽게, 남들이 탐욕스러울 때 두려워하라'는 말을 인용한다. 이해할 수 있는 회사에만 투자해야 하며, 사업 모델을 초등학생도 이해할 만큼 단순하게 설명할 수 있어야 한다고 강조한다. 제약사는 파이프라인과 경쟁 약물을, 소비재는 판매 현황을 확인하라는 예시를 든다. 경기, 금리, 주식시장 방향을 예측하는 것은 낭비라고 주장한다. 대신 자동차 중고차 가격, 호텔 점유율, 알루미늄 재고 등 보유 업종의 구체적 지표를 보라고 권한다. 주가수익비율(PER)과 배당수익률 같은 기본 지표는 초등 수준 수학으로 계산 가능하며, 재무제표(현금, 부채, 이익률, 매출 성장)를 직접 검토해야 한다고 말한다. 시장은 평균 2년에 한 번 10% 이상 조정, 6년에 한 번 25% 이상 하락이 있었다는 역사 데이터를 들어 하락은 정상적이라고 설명한다. 장기 투자는 시간을 내 편으로 두는 것이며, 롱텀캐피털매니지먼트 사례처럼 똑똑한 사람도 실패할 수 있다는 점을 경고한다. 주식 투자는 과학이 아니라 예술에 가깝고, 같은 기업을 두고도 합리적인 사람들의 평가가 갈릴 수 있다는 점을 강조하며 마무리한다.
다듬은 글
in the 1980s one of the most well-known and most successful mutual funds was the fidelity magellan fund and it was managed by peter lynch who ranks among the best investors ever just how good was mr lynch well from 1977 to 1990 the magellan fund's net asset value grew by an annual average of about 29 percent almost double the growth rate of the s p 500 at that time it's hard for any investor to achieve a 29 gain in a single year and averaging that over many years hardly ever happens fortunately mr lynch hasn't kept his investing thoughts to himself he has written several well-regarded books that are considered classics by many one up on wall street beating the street and learn to earn in this video we are going to look at peter lynch's six lessons for investing successfully in the stock market so they're always something to worry about and the key organ in your body in the stock market is your stomach it's not the brain if you can add 8 and 8 get reasonably close to 16 that's the only level of math you need to know you don't know to need the area under the curve remember that quadratic equation and an integral calculus and the area under the curve i mean whoever kid was under the damn curve the past few months of stock market volatility have certainly made clear what peter lynch was saying in this quote those who don't expect volatility and can't handle it should look elsewhere to build wealth although there are few places where you can build wealth over the long run as effectively as in stocks lynch added you've got to look in the mirror every day and say what am i going to do if the market goes down 10 percent what do i do if it goes down 20 am i going to sell am i going to get out of that you should consider reducing your stock holdings today emotions can be a real performance killer if market drops get you selling out in a panic or market surges have you greedily snapping up overvalued shares the best investors will do the opposite as warren buffett has said it's best to be greedy when others are afraid and afraid when others are greedy i i'm amazed that the average investor is out there in some industry they're in the polyvinyl chloride industry they're in insurance they're in textiles and they're going to see those industries turn and they're not going to buy those stocks they're going to go buy some stock from somebody in the national guard or they're going to something on television and biogenetics they have a big edge in me i work awfully hard and they're months ahead of me they can be the healthcare industry they're seeing new products they should work on that on that that they have in front of them it's also important to only invest in the stock of companies you understand and some companies are far easier to understand than others for example that a certain company makes cancer fighting drugs you need to know what drugs the company has on the market and how well they're selling what drugs are in its pipeline and how close to market they are noting that many drugs never clear clinical trials well enough to make it to market you need to know about competitors drugs on the market companies that make and sell soda or candies or shoes are simpler aim to be very familiar with the companies and industries in which you invest lynch has explained that if you're prepared to invest in a company then you ought to be able to explain why in simple language that a fifth grader could understand and quickly enough so the fifth grader won't get bored remember this one it's futile to predict the economy interest rates and stock market i mean people keep trying to do this i mean this would be useful i would love to knowing every session i'd love to know when interest rates can go up or down i'd love to know when the stock market's going up that would be helpful i would like to get next year's wall street journal uh unfortunately you don't get it people are so insistent on that way too it's easy to let stock investing intimidate you after all there's some math involved but much of the math isn't that complicated the price to earnings ratio for example is a mere ratio of the stock's current price divided by its annual earnings per share a dividend yield is simply the stock's annual dividend which is often four quarters worth of payments divided by its current stock price as lynch has noted everyone has the brain power to follow the stock market if you made it through 5th grade math you can do it many people buy stocks after only reading a little about them in an article or worse after just hearing a little from a friend or acquaintance for best results you need to pour over a company's financial statements checking to see how much cash and debt it has how fat its profit margins are whether its revenue and earnings are growing and by how much and other numbers like that ideally collect lots of ideas of promising companies and study them to see which remain really promising to you the person that turns over the most rocks wins the game and that's always been my philosophy he said never invest in any company before you've done the homework on the company's earnings prospects financial condition competitive position plans for expansion and so forth my market went down when i ran magellan on 13 years the market went down nine times and every time mark went down magellan went down i was nine for nine and uh you know because it's it's very it's very important it's another one of these numbers you got to write down if you put a thousand dollars in a stock all you can lose is a thousand i've done that several times and uh but if you're right you can make five thousand ten thousand twenty thousand so this business you don't have to be right one out two times you can be right one out of four it's a long time the times you're right you know the company's doing well you know they're doing a great job and you add to it or at least you don't sell it which is terrible tragedy be patient because most great wealth from the stock market is built over decades by rich and famous folks such as buffett and peter lynch and by ordinary people who got rich investing as peter lynch has said time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies people get too carried away and first of all they try and predict the stock market that is a total waste of time no one can predict the stock market they try to predict the interest rates i mean this is it if anybody predict interest rates right three times in a row they'd be a billionaire concern there's not that many billionaires on the planet it's very you know i took i had logic so i had a syllogism in the study of these when i was at boston college they can't be that many people who can pick interest rates because there'd be lots of billionaires and no one can predict the economy right a lot of people this room were around in 1981 and 82.
when we had a 20 prime rate with double-digit inflation double digit unemployment i don't remember anybody telling me in 1981 about it i didn't read i slightly all stuff i remember every time we got the worst recession since the depression so what i'm trying to tell you it'd be very useful to know what the stock market is going to do it'd be terrific to know that the dow jones average year for now would be x then we're going to have a full scale recession our interest rate is going to be 12 that's useful stuff you never know it though you just don't get to learn it so i've always said if you spend 14 minutes a year in economics you've wasted 12 minutes and i i really believe that now i have to be i'd be fair i'm talking about economics in the broad scale predicting the downturn for next year or the upturn or m1 and m2 3b and all these all these m's the uh i'm talking about economics to me is when you talk about scrap prices when i own auto stocks i want to know what's happening use car prices when these car prices are going up it's a very good indicator when i own hotel stocks i want to go to hotel occupancies well you know chemical stocks i don't know what's happening the price of ethylene these are facts if aluminum inventories go down five straight months that's relevant i can deal with that home affordability i want to know about i own uh fannie mae or i own a housing stock these are facts you can they're economic facts in these economic predictions and economic predictions are a total waste and uh interest rates alan greenspan is a very honest guy he would tell you that he can't predict interest rates he can tell what short rates are going to do the next six months try and stick them on what the long term rate will be three years from now they'll say i don't have any idea so how are you the investors supposed to predict interest rates if they had a federal reserve can't do it so i think that's uh but you should study history and history is the important thing you learn from what you learn from history is the market goes down it goes down a lot the math is simple there's been 93 years of century this is easy to do the markets had 50 declines of 10 or more so 50 declines in 93 years about once every two years the market falls 10 we call that a correction that means that's a euphemism for losing a lot of money rapidly we call it a correction and uh uh so 50 declines in 93 years about once every two years the market falls 10 all those 50 declines 15 have been 25 or more that's known as a bear market we've had 15 declines in 93 years so every six years the market's gonna have a 25 decline that's all you need to know you need it on the market's gonna go down sometimes lynch has said investing in stocks is an art not a science and people who've been trained to rigidly quantify everything have a big disadvantage that's important because investing isn't solely about numbers and math consider for example the long-term capital management hedge fund was literally run by several nobel prize winners and yet it imploded in 1998 and had to be bailed out with several billion dollars investing in individual stocks involves making educated estimates of how companies will perform and when several smart and talented people study the same company they may reasonably come up with different estimates and viewpoints the car company tesla is a good example as it has arden supporters and detractors with this i hope you guys able to understand what it takes to be a long-term value investor with that i will end the video
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