저자: BastienMaurice · 외국인
요약 보기
레이 달리오의 AI 버블 경고(현재 버블 완성도 80%, 쉴러 CAPE 41.2, S&P500 상위10종목 집중도 37.8%, AI 설비투자 확대·부채 조달 증가)를 소개하며 1929·2000년 버블과 비교. 기술 혁신이 맞더라도 가격이 과도하면 손실이 난다는 논지. 다만 AI 기업들의 실적(기술섹터 이익 약 72% 증가)은 2000년과 다르다고 짚음. 차트상 나스닥100은 고점 부근, SOX는 조정 후 횡보, VIX는 안정권, MOVE는 상승 중이나 위험 수준은 아님. 발표자는 미국 시장에 계속 투자 중이라고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
Reidalio estimates that the bubble is already 80% full. And his references are the 1929 crisis and the explosion of the internet bubble in 2000 where the bubbles were filled to 100%. According to Redalio, one of the most respected investors in history, we are much closer to explosion than the majority of investors imagine.
According to its own indicator, we are now at 80% of the levels of exuberance observed during those two historical peaks in 1929 and 2000. And when you start looking at the figures, the comparison becomes quite uncomfortable. The chiller cable that measures how expensive US stocks are is trading at almost the same level as before the 2000 dot-com bubble burst.
The S&P 500 is now hyper-concentrated on a handful of giga-companies and the sums invested in artificial intelligence are now reaching insane levels. In my opinion, the question is no longer so much whether artificial intelligence will change the world? It's more about knowing how much we're willing to pay for that future because you see, the Internet in 2000 was really going to change the world, but that same year the NASDAQ lost 80% of its value.
And that's precisely where Redalio's analysis becomes interesting. But before going any further, we need to understand why isio is listened to so much. Dalio founded Bridgewater Associates in 1975 from his two-bedroom apartment in New York. And a few decades later, his fund became the largest hedge fund in the world.
Redalio itself estimates that it has generated approximately $53 billion in net cumulative gains for its investors with a historical return close to 12% per year over a long period. Bridge Water confirms that under his leadership the company has become the world's largest hedge fund and the one that has generated the most gains for its clients than any other edge fund.
But his second major achievement is particularly interesting for this video. Before the 2008 financial crisis, Bridge Water had already identified the growing fragility of the American financial system . In July 2007, therefore more than 1 year before the bankruptcy of LEMAN Brothers Bridge Water was already talking about a widespread fragility of the system.
As a result, in 2008, the SNP 500 will lose 37% while, with its strategy, Bridge Water ends the year up +9 %. So when someone talks about credit cycles and liquidity bubbles, it's not just someone commenting from their couch. He has been studying these mechanisms in detail for several years. The first parallel he makes is 1929.
And to understand his reasoning, we have to go back 100 years . The 1920s were a period of extraordinary innovation. Electricity enters homes, aviation, cars, and radios. At the time, investors were therefore not completely fantasizing. These technologies will truly revolutionize the world they live in.
And that is precisely the parallel that Dio draws with artificial intelligence today. But investors will gradually confuse two things. A revolutionary technology and a financial asset bought at any price. Between August 1921 and September 1929, the Dow Jones rose from approximately 63 points to 381 points.
But above all, a huge part of this increase is fueled by credit. At the time, it was possible in some cases to buy $10,000 worth of stock with only $1,000 of capital and the remaining $9,000 borrowed. In other words, you have 10% down payment, 90% debt. And in that case, as long as the market is rising, everything works perfectly.
The shares are increasing in value. This increase raises the value of what you can offer as collateral to banks. So you can borrow more and buy even more shares until the mechanism reverses. On September 3, 1929, the Dow Jones reached 381 points. On October 28, during the famous Black Monday, it will lose 13% in a single session.
The following day it lost almost another 12% and in July 1932 the index fell to 41 points, a drop of 89% from its peak. And that is exactly the mechanism that d'Alio is referring to. Today, rising markets allow for more borrowing, but when prices start to fall, collateral loses value, banks demand more security, and investors are forced to sell.
The second parallel is the internet in 2000. Now, we move forward to 2000 and there, it's the same scenario. The revolutionary technology that appears this time is the internet. And once again , investors are right about the technology. The only problem is the price they are willing to pay. In 1999 alone, the NASDAQ rose by about 89% and the Nasdaq 100, which includes the 100 largest tech companies, rose by about 100%.
That year, 289 internet-related companies went public. And the average internet IPO , so the initial public offering of an internet company, ends the year up on average 266% above its initial offering price. That's completely insane. And on March 10, 2000, the Nasdaq closed at 5048 points. This is the summit.
And then the market gradually begins to understand that certain valuations assume several decades of perfect growth. The Nasdaq collapses and in October 2022 it falls back to 1114 points, a loss of nearly 78%. And the SNP 500 lost about 50% between its peak in March 2000 and its trough in October 2022.
It took the Nasdaq 15 long years to recover to its 2000 peak. And yet, the internet was right. Amazon still exists. Google has transformed the economy, the cloud, smartphones, Netflix, social networks, e-commerce, everything investors imagined was to some extent even more important than they thought.
But that didn't stop those who overpaid from losing a lot of money. And that is indeed the central point of the video and of Dalio's reasoning. You might be right about the technology but completely wrong about the price. Let's fast forward to today and I'm going to show you why the parallel becomes disturbing.
The first number is Schiller's cap . To put it simply, this indicator allows you to see if US stocks are expensive or cheap relative to the profits made over the long term. Its historical average is around 17. In September 1929, this indicator was at 32. At the peak of the internet bubble, it was at 44.
And today, at the end of September 2026, it is at 41.2. So, that absolutely does not mean that the market is going to collapse tomorrow. The Chiller peak is a very poor indicator for accurately timing a summit. But that means that in terms of historical valuation, we are indeed in an area that is extremely expensive.
The second figure is the concentration of the SNP 500. As of August 31, 2026, the 10 largest stocks in the SNP500 represented 37.8% of the entire index. And to put that into perspective, at the peak of the dot-com bubble, the 10 largest stocks represented about 27%. Today, they are approaching 38%. GP Morgan notes that we have reached levels of concentration that have never been seen in previous decades.
In concrete terms, what this means is that today when you buy an SNP 500 ETF, almost 4 out of 10 dollars are directed towards only 10 stocks. And a large part of these companies are directly or indirectly exposed to the same theme: artificial intelligence. The third figure, the third element, is the amount of money needed to fuel this revolution.
In the spring of 2026, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta collectively plan approximately $725 billion in capital expenditures for the year and nearly $1080 billion in 2027. The problem is that a growing portion of this spending is beginning to be financed by debt. Large technology companies issued approximately $220 billion in bonds in one year to finance this data center expansion.
And here, we begin to get to the heart of Redalio's reasoning. For Reddalio, a bubble does not necessarily burst when everyone realizes that the technology was useless. It's rarely that simple. It explodes when those who hold the assets start to need cash. Dalio explains something very simple. Wealth is not money.
You can own 1 million euros worth of shares. Your screen displays 1 million, but you can't pay your taxes, your credit, or a margin call with the value that's displayed on your wallet. To get cash, what you have to do is sell. And now, imagine that interest rates rise, that debt becomes more expensive.
Your bank is asking for more collateral, so you're selling more shares. Stocks are falling, and so is the value of your portfolio. You have other investors who need to sell, and that's when the vicious cycle begins . And what worked perfectly in one direction starts to work in exactly the same way. Conversely, Dalio summarizes the trigger of a bubble by this mechanism: the need for cash.
And here, I'm going to add a nuance to this video because saying that we are exactly in 2000 would be a mistake. Why again? Because today's AI giants are making a lot of money. In the second quarter of 2026, the profits of SNP 500 companies increased by approximately 31% year-over-year and those of the technology sector by approximately 72%.
So the current leaders are actually generating hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue and profits. And that's the best argument against the idea of a copy-paste of what happened during the dot-com bubble . But Dalio's argument is more subtle. He's not saying that everyone is wrong about AI. He essentially says that an extraordinary technology can still become a bad investment if the expectations built into its price also become extraordinary .
And that's precisely what happened with the dot-com bubble. So today, we have valuations that are historically very high. A concentration in the SNP 500 higher than in the 2000s and investments in AI infrastructure exceeding $800 billion this year. So Redalio's analysis is very interesting, but you must remember that it is only an opinion.
No matter how great a trader, no matter how illustrious a trader he may be, he can absolutely be wrong about his reasoning and timing. I made a video, my last video, the previous one was about Michael Burry who thought that the Hungarian market was the one that was going to take off in the coming weeks, months, years.
For now, that's still not the case. So, there's really only one thing that matters, and that's what it tells you to walk, that's what the graphs tell you. And that's what we're going to do right now . We're going to look at the charts to see what the market is really telling us about current trends.
Quick aside, if you want to familiarize yourself with my process, do n't hesitate to download my free mini-training that I've put in the description and comment of this video. You'll see a little bit of how I go about finding profitable investments in the financial markets. And the first chart I'm going to show you is the Nasdaq 100, that is, the index that will group together the 100 largest American technology stocks.
We are on the NASDAQ chart and here what you see is that we had a historical high which was located here in this place which we reached at the beginning of June 2026 and today we are not far away as you can see here we are really very close to that historical level. You see here the day of Friday, September 25, 2026, we are really just below.
It is true that we had an index which shifted sharply from the beginning of June until here on July 29, 2026 and then we went sharply back to consolidation and we had a new leg up. So typically if investors were panicking about the valuations of US technology stocks, we would have an index that would shift and fall much more than that.
And again, you can listen to everyone's opinions, but the only data you really need to focus on is what investors are actually doing in the market. Are they buying? Are they selling, is there panic? Is there euphoria? And you can see that just from the graphs. The second graph I want to show you is the Sox index.
Here, it's an index that will group together the main AI semiconductors. Sox, it is much more sensitive to the AI spending chain. You'll have companies like Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, and so on. So this Sox SOX index is a bit like your speculative thermometer and it's true that it has had some very difficult sessions over the last week.
And you see here, from its highest point in this area, it still lost almost 30% in just a few days from June 22nd to July 28th, so in almost a month, it lost 30%. It was precisely at a time when there was questioning about the valuations of companies, of companies specializing in AI, and we had a lot of selling from investors during a major correction.
However, today you can see that the index has recovered well and today we are moving in a flat zone. OK? Here you can see the moving averages moving sideways. So there is no real surrender. In recent days, there has even been a leg of an upward trend that has begun. Prices are above all the moving averages you see here, especially the very thick 200-day moving average shown here in red .
So no capitulation, no panic among investors. We just had a big correction a few weeks ago which was precisely linked to the price of oil, to the valuations of AI companies. We had questions about that. The third graph I'm going to show you is the VIX. The VIX is an indicator that measures volatility, stress, and nervousness, particularly in the US stock markets.
Here, we're looking at a weekly graph, OK? To show you a little bit how this indicator evolves, how this graph evolves. You can see that he always moves around in roughly the same areas. OK? It's an indicator that shows when everything is going well and that it won't really change. On the other hand, when you have periods of nervousness in the financial markets, it will increase very quickly, very sharply.
That's what you can see here. You see there, you can see that it had increased significantly. It was in April 2025, it was at the time when Donald Trump had mentioned exorbitant duties on Chinese products and inevitably, the market reacted directly. If we look a little further back in time here, you can also see that we had a VIX that literally exploded in March 2020.
And March 2020, as you know very well, was the Covid, lockdown and so on. So there was a lot of nervousness in the markets because we had an unprecedented situation. Investors had never experienced anything like it and didn't know how to react. So, a VIX that exploded. If we go back to today, you can see that the VIX is evolving here at that level.
Historically, it always fluctuates in areas between 16 and 17. And here, you see that we have a VIX that is behaving quite well, so it will give you the general feeling of investors in the markets who today are not in a panic. The last indicator I want to show you, which is less well known than the VIX, but which is just as important in my opinion, especially at this time, is the move.
And the more the move occurs, the more tense and uncertain the US bond market becomes. Interest rates are at the heart of financing the entire economy, and this is especially true when interest rates rise. This is the case with the Fed and Kevin Warsh who raised interest rates a few days ago; the stress can extend beyond the simple stock market.
When the move explodes, and that's been the case in recent days as you can see here, it means there is a lot of uncertainty among investors regarding inflation, interest rates, and how the American economy will absorb all of this. And when the VIX and the Move both soar , it indicates significant uncertainty about the US economy.
And it's true that today investors are operating in turmoil because you inevitably have the US- Iran conflict with this D3 Dormous and the oil supply which is becoming increasingly complicated. The rise in fuel prices, rampant inflation and inevitably, in the end, the party that increases interest rates which are likely to break the American economy and therefore a stock market right behind it which will suffer.
And if we look at the graph, you can see that we are not yet at alarming levels. Here, we can draw a trend line relative to the peak, to the last peak of the highest recent peak. And you see that it is indeed possible that we will return to an upward phase on the move, on this indicator. Nevertheless, he still did not perish in the house.
So for my part, and please note, this is definitely not investment advice, but I am always invested in the American markets. He always has very good deals and since the beginning of the month, so since the beginning of September, I am at 3.5-4% performance. So that means there really is an American stock market that still offers you great opportunities.
We've reached the end of this video. I hope you enjoyed it. I felt it was important to share with you Redalio's life in the current market. But again, this is just an opinion and you really need to focus on doing your own analysis. The previous video I made was about Michael Burryy a few weeks ago who also believed that AI valuations would collapse at some point and he was more focused on the Hong Kong market.
He thought it was the Hong Kong market that was going to take off, that was going to catch fire. It was clear that this was still not the case. Maybe he will be right in the future, but what you really need to do is focus on looking at the charts, the state of the market and invest like a trader, that is, without any emotion, without any opinion, but follow the trends.
Again, if you want to go further, feel free to download my free mini-course to familiarize yourself with my process. It's in the description and comments. And I'll see you next time for more videos. Take care of yourself. Ciao.
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