저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
엔비디아 주가가 최근 조정을 받아 123달러이며 현재 선행 PER 34.56배다. 애널리스트 EPS 추정치는 2025년 3.63달러이고, 두 성장률(33.9%, 46.35%)의 평균 40%를 적용해 2026년 EPS를 5.08달러로 추정한다. 선행 PER 34~45배를 가정하면 연말 목표가는 175~200달러 수준이다. 조정은 자연스러운 현상이며 패닉 대응은 불필요하다고 본다. 하방 시나리오로 PER 18배면 91달러까지 하락 가능성을 제시한다.
다듬은 글
Hello everyone, I'm back from a week's vacation and I want to thank everyone for their well wishes while I was on vacation. For my first video back, I wanted to update my 2025 Nvidia stock price forecast . It's the end of next year. So , to make this forecast, I will use several assumptions and estimates updated by Wall Street and Nvidia, as well as several factors that have changed and impacted my Nvidia stock price forecast.
Let me share with you all the numbers I'll be using for my forecast, and then I'll update and tell you what I think Nvidia's stock price will be by the end of next year. So , let's take a look. OK. So, one of the numbers I'll need to predict Nvidia's stock price is the current stock price. And Nvidia's stock price has faced a bit of pressure.
It has now fallen to $123 per share. Having fallen from higher levels earlier this month, or should I say last month, it is now clear. Nvidia's stock price has simply skyrocketed over the past few years. So a small setback was entirely expected. I know many investors panicked because of this pullback.
But remember that Nvidia's stock price won't increase every day. It's rare for Nvidia's stock price to show such great performance over the past few months. This should not be expected in the future. Rarely does a stock grow as much as Nvidia. So, a small setback was inevitable. This is quite understandable.
I don't think this is a reason for investors to panic. Now, another number I'll need for my price prediction is Nvidia's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. It currently trades at a forward P/E of 34.56, slightly below the levels of around 40 at which it traded at peak valuations in early 2024 and over the past few weeks.
Now , another number I'll need for the forecast is Nvidia's earnings per share . Next year, earnings per share are expected to be $3.63. I want to highlight something unique about Nvidia. Well, not that unique, but interesting about Nvidia, namely that its fiscal year does not coincide with the calendar year.
So, now the current year for Nvidia is 2025. This is because they have a 2025 fiscal year underway. Although we are now in the 2024 calendar year. So Nvidia's fiscal year is one year ahead of the calendar year. Companies are allowed to do that. The next year is listed as 2026, but according to the calendar calendar it is 2025 .
I wanted to draw attention to this. So if you're looking at the screen and thinking, isn't this a mistake? No. Companies are allowed to have fiscal years that differ from calendar years. Many, many companies do this. It's confusing and annoying, but they're allowed to do it. Okay, I wanted to point that out.
It 's also interesting that these ar who follow Nvidia stock. So, this is a group of Wall Street professionals who watch stocks and make their predictions about what the earnings per share will be. These numbers change quite frequently, and these updates are reflected here in the EPS trend. You can see that 90 days ago, Wall Street analysts were expecting $3.37 in earnings per share, including the split.
Remember, 90 days ago there was no stock split yet . And that's why you see here $30.37 from 90 days ago and $3.63 as the current estimate. This is taking into account the stock split. That is until the split. All that is being done here is multiplying or dividing by 10 since the shares were split 10 to 1.
So, as you will notice, Wall Street's EPS estimates have been steadily rising from $30.37 or $3.37 after the split to $3.18 to $3.56 before a small drop 7 days ago to $3.38 and then rising again to $3.63 or $ 36.30 after the split . So, Wall Street is getting even more bullish on Nvidia stock, if you can believe that's possible, because there was already a lot of optimism surrounding Nvidia.
Personally, I was bullish on Nvidia stock. I rated Nvidia stock as one of my top 24 stocks to buy in 2024, and it's been on my list all year . So I'm bullish on Nvidia stock. Wall Street is now also getting involved and becoming optimistic about Nvidia shares. OK. The other number I will need is an estimate of the growth rate for Nvidia, since I will be using the forward price-to- earnings ratio.
I need Nvidia's earnings per share in 2026 calendar year, which corresponds to fiscal year 2027. You saw above that the Yahoo Finance website did not provide me with this indicator. However, they provide growth estimates for Nvidia stock. Nvidia is expected to grow earnings per share by 33.9% next year.
And then , over the next 5 years, earnings per share are expected to grow by 46.35%. So, I'll use these numbers to estimate the annualized EPS growth for Nvidia. Now I will use the weighted average of these two growth rates. So, instead of using 34% or 46%, I'll use 40%, since it's right in the middle between those numbers.
Instead of taking a conservative or optimistic estimate of 46%, I will choose the average value—40%. As my forecast for Nvidia's earnings per share growth rate for next year. Hello everyone, I want to take this opportunity you to buy and sell stocks and other investments. I've put a is link to sign up, it will support my channel, and most importantly—you will receive special bonuses, including up to 10 additional free promotions.
So, now that we have the numbers, let's do our calculations and predictions. Let me remind you, we said that in the 2025 calendar year, Nvidia's earnings per share will be $3.63, these are data from Wall Street analysts' estimates. Remember, we also said that I would use a 40% growth estimate because that is the average between two different EPS growth rates for next year and for the next 5 years.
So, if I apply this 40% growth rate to the 2025 EPS of $ 3.63, I get 2026 EPS of $5.08. Now that we have the EPS forecast for 2026, we can apply our forward P/E ratio to make a price forecast. So, if the forward P/E ratio remains at the current level of 34.56 and EPS reaches the expected $5.08, then Nvidia's share price could be $175.63.
by the end of 2025. That would be a nice increase of about $50 per share from the current price of $123 at which the stock is trading . But what if the forward P/E ratio rose even more? This would mean that with a forward P/E ratio of 45, the share price could rise to $228 per share. That would be an increase of about $100 per share from its current valuation.
If the forward price/ earnings multiple were to decline, if factors unfavorable to Nvidia stock emerged, if the competition suddenly and unexpectedly caught up with Nvidia—a scenario I consider unlikely—then the forward price/earnings multiple could fall to 25 and the stock price would remain relatively stable at $127.
And in the worst case, when the forward P/E ratio falls by about half, to 18, the share price could fall to $91.48. So even if the forward P/E ratio were to almost halve, the share price would not fall catastrophically, only to $91 per share. So, you can see why I'm bullish on Nvidia stock: great upside potential and seemingly limited downside risk.
This is, of course, assuming that earnings per share continue to grow at the current rate. All of this is based on the assumption that earnings per share will continue to grow at a solid pace, as we have built into our forecasts. I've now created four different scenarios, but which one do I think is the most likely?
This is where I will set my target price for Nvidia stock for 2025. I believe Nvidia stock will end the year with a forward P/E ratio of 34 to 45. And I think the share price will reach a certain level by the end of 2025. Somewhere between $175 and $200 per share. Thank you for watching this video. I sincerely appreciate it.
I know you have a lot to do and many other videos you could watch. So I am truly grateful that you chose this particular video. If you want to see more videos like this, click the subscribe or like button. Both of these actions will help me create more videos like this. Thank you again.
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