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Are we going to have a recession in the United States? As I said on Monday in a talk that I gave at the New York Economic Club, I think we're very close if not in a recession now. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink is once again sounding the alarm bells. A recession is coming. A recession may be here in fact.
Make sure you watch today's whole video as I have a lot that I need to share with you today. Currently, we are seeing the exchange balances of Bitcoin being the lowest, I think going back to 2018. The balances for Bitcoin on exchange have never been this low. This is Larry Fink's warning to all investors.
Yes, we need to recalibrate. Yes, we have to recalibrate. Yes, I do believe we're probably starting if not we're in a recession. Yes, I think the market is still anticipating underestimating how high inflation can get. If you factor in all the tariffs, Right. you factor in all these other issues, it's going to be quite additive.
I mean, I I I read in a report that if you just take the tariffs and the cost of home building, the average new home could be up as much as 26%. We already have a housing affordability problem. None of this sounds any good to me, Larry. I mean, and it's all self-inflicted by the way. None of it needed to happen.
This is not a pandemic. This is not a financial crisis. This is something that we've created. Now, the good part is Larry Fink says that out of BlackRock's $11 trillion worth of clientele, they have never had so many clients reach out to them asking how to navigate through this and allocate through this.
To me, this is an opportunity to look for opportunities and because of all our clients having uncertainty, we are spending more time with more conversation with more clients globally than any time. Our job now is to be, you know, helping, calming, giving them giving them ideas. I do believe as I said in my talk this morning, I do believe the megatrends are still with us.
It is a verifiable fact that BlackRock is actively pushing their clients to buy Bitcoin. I was with a sovereign wealth fund. That was the conversation. Should we have a 2% allocation? Should we have a 5% allocation? If everybody adopted that conversation, but you know, it would be 500,000, 600,000, 700,000 for Bitcoin.
And Larry Fink has always said Bitcoin is made for times like this. I believe Bitcoin is legitimate. I believe it is an instrument that you invest in when you're more frightened though. It is an instrument when you believe that countries are debasing their currency, debasing their currency by excess deficits, and some countries are.
I believe we have countries where you're frightened of your everyday existence, and if you have an opportunity to invest in in something that is outside your country's you know, control, then you can have more financial control. And so I'm a a major believer that there is a role for Bitcoin in in portfolios.
I believe you're going to see that as an as a one of the asset classes that we all look at. I look at it as digital gold as I said before, and I do believe there's a there's a there's a real need for everyone to look at it as as one alternative to I would say the optimism that I have in the world. If you want to hedge hope, Bitcoin is not a an instrument for hope unless you're hopeful you're going to make a lot of money on it.
But I I look at it as a vehicle in which you're expressing your your financial acumen in something that you're more frightened of the world, you're more frightened of your existence, and I believe there's a great industrial use for it, and I and I think a lot of people are missing that. I couldn't agree more.
I changed my mind about it when you did. Now, the good news is, despite the fact that we're in peak peak despair, talks of going much lower, talks of a recession, this is historically and psychologically a great time to buy quality. In fact, Fundstrat's global head of technical strategy says that there's a lot of reason to think that although new all-time highs won't come tomorrow, there's a lot of reason to think that the stock market has largely already bottomed.
Interesting analysis here. Mark Newton, Fundstrat global head uh of technical strategy. And one of the things we've talked about, Mark, is regardless uh of whether we try to put Humpty Dumpty back together right now, are there underlying uh is there underlying damage that's been done or is this all kind of within the realm of what happens when you see a break in the markets and and it starts healing itself?
Uh look, I I think there has been quite a bit of damage in the last 7-8 weeks. Uh however, you know, equities have pulled back to an area that is quite important. We have seen evidence of now volume dispersion that's been pretty significant along with just breath really being washed out in recent weeks.
So, there is some evidence that equities have in fact made a bottom and or in a bottoming process. Now, that doesn't mean that we move straight back to the highs. I think it's going to be a two-steps-forward-one-step-back type process or really an L-shaped stock market probably for the next 30 to 60 days.
Uh so, a lot of volatility. That's not going away anytime soon. Uh there are at least some technical reasons to think that markets have stabilized in the short run and can try to work a little bit better in in the weeks and the months to come. Like what? Can I can I just ask real quickly, when you say an L-shaped market performance from here, you mean we've already drawn the first line of the L, the downside, and now we're going to bounce around, not that there's another down leg to come before we get there?
Yeah, we've seen some pretty severe deterioration, obviously. And now I think we we likely could go sideways for probably another one or two months before starting a larger rally. So, one to two months of sideways action before starting a larger rally, possibly breaking all-time highs. Hey, Mark, head of technical strategy, what are these signs that you're seeing that tells you that the market has bottomed and now we're stabilizing.
I love the final prediction he makes at the end. Listen. We've seen seven, you know, signs of technology really starting to stabilize this past week. One of the biggest moves in mag seven off of lows, that's very encouraging. This morning's evidence of of bank earnings is also very encouraging for the financial sector at a time when everybody thought they would come in poor.
So, I I think, you know, financials are second largest sector, of course, within the S&P, technology being the first. And, you know, a lot of the pessimism and sentiment with all this money moving all of a sudden from the US abroad, I think is really ill-timed. We've actually seen the US outperform over the last week over Europe and also a lot of Asia.
Most of the world seems to be catching up at the time when the US is finally starting to stabilize. We're going to see rates start to come down really in the months to come. Rate cuts are coming. Many people are saying the Fed will need to cut rates. And remember, Fundstrat is still predicting Bitcoin hits $150,000 this year, if not much higher.
Here's founder Tom Lee. Fed and central banks are easing, QT's ending. I think that that with positive Washington sort of tailwinds means I think Bitcoin can do well to the end of the year. I think it's still 150 or higher is possible. I know it doesn't feel like it, but once we get through this tariff and that agenda around tariffs, markets can look forward to Okay.
things that could be positive. I think most people are missing this. 12 billion assets under management, Bitwise, their leadership has confirmed that Bitcoin is being drained from exchanges. So, when this market comes back, Bitcoin's price will jump quickly and rally hard. Most people aren't savvy enough to do this research or seek out this research.
Make sure you subscribe to Altcoin Daily. We are one of the few who regularly shares with you this kind of info. The liquid supply. So, currently we are seeing the unexchanged balances of Bitcoin being the lowest, I think going back to 2018. So, this is like going back for many, many years now. The the balances for Bitcoin on exchange have never been this low.
And what that signals is that there's a there's a lack of sellers on the market. So, people will put move from cold storage to to exchange when they're ready to sell their Bitcoin. And if if this if the exchange if the exchanges are showing low balances, um that's that means that we have few um sellers in the market.
And that that will be coming to play and become very interesting once there is uh a a rise and the buyers come back into the the market for Bitcoin. My prediction, and of course I don't have a crystal ball and I don't know, and this isn't investment advice, but my my feeling is that when it does start to move back up again, it's going to jump um because there simply aren't any sellers.
And if people are bidding and trying to buy and there aren't sellers in the market, they're going to just keep, you know, offering higher and higher prices to um to buy the Bitcoin that they that they that they want. Um and and so I expect that they will it'll it'll gap up quite significantly when it does start to rise again in the future.
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