저자: AltcoinDaily진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
래리 핑크 발언 인용 및 경기침체 우려 속 BlackRock이 고객에게 비트코인 배분을 권하고 있다는 주장. Fundstrat 마크 뉴턴은 증시 저점 형성 가능성과 1~2개월 횡보 후 반등을 전망. Tom Lee는 연말 비트코인 15만 달러 이상 가능성 제시. 비트코인 거래소 잔고가 2018년 이후 최저 수준이라 매도 물량 부족에 따른 급등 가능성 주장. 영상 말미에 제휴 거래소 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
Are we going to have a recession in the United States? As I said on Monday at a talk I gave at the New York Economic Club, I think we're very close, if not already in a recession. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink is once again sounding the alarm bells. A recession is coming. In fact, a recession may already be here.
Make sure you watch today's whole video, because I have a lot to share with you today. Currently, the exchange balances of Bitcoin are at their lowest, I think going back to 2018. Exchange balances for Bitcoin have never been this low. This is Larry Fink's warning to all investors.
Yes, we need to recalibrate. We have to recalibrate. I do believe we're probably starting into a recession, if we're not in one already. I think the market is still underestimating how high inflation can get. If you factor in all the tariffs and all these other issues, it's going to be quite additive.
I read in a report that if you just take the tariffs and the cost of home building, the average new home could go up as much as 26%. We already have a housing affordability problem. None of this sounds good to me, Larry. And it's all self-inflicted, by the way. None of it needed to happen. This is not a pandemic. This is not a financial crisis. This is something we've created.
The good part is that Larry Fink says that out of BlackRock's $11 trillion in client assets, they have never had so many clients reach out asking how to navigate this and how to allocate through it. To me, this is an opportunity to look for opportunities. Because all our clients are feeling uncertainty, we are spending more time, with more conversations and more clients globally, than at any time. Our job now is to help, to calm them, and to give them ideas. As I said in my talk this morning, I do believe the megatrends are still with us.
It is a verifiable fact that BlackRock is actively pushing its clients to buy Bitcoin. I was with a sovereign wealth fund, and that was the conversation: should we have a 2% allocation, or a 5% allocation? If everybody adopted that conversation, it would be 500,000, 600,000, 700,000 for Bitcoin. Larry Fink has always said Bitcoin is made for times like this.
I believe Bitcoin is legitimate. I believe it is an instrument you invest in when you're more frightened. It is an instrument for when you believe countries are debasing their currency through excess deficits, and some countries are. I believe there are countries where people are frightened for their everyday existence, and if you have an opportunity to invest in something outside your country's control, you can have more financial control. So I'm a major believer that there is a role for Bitcoin in portfolios. I believe you're going to see it become one of the asset classes we all look at.
I look at it as digital gold, as I said before. I believe everyone needs to see it as one alternative to the optimism I have about the world. If you want to hedge hope, Bitcoin is not an instrument for hope, unless you're hopeful you're going to make a lot of money on it. I look at it as a vehicle where you express your financial acumen in something you're more frightened of: the world, your own existence. And I believe there is a great industrial use for it, which I think a lot of people are missing. I couldn't agree more. I changed my mind about it when you did.
Now, the good news is that despite being at peak despair, with talk of going much lower and talk of a recession, this is historically and psychologically a great time to buy quality. In fact, Fundstrat's global head of technical strategy says there's a lot of reason to think that although new all-time highs won't come tomorrow, the stock market has largely already bottomed.
Interesting analysis here. Mark Newton, Fundstrat's global head of technical strategy. One of the things we've talked about, Mark, regardless of whether we try to put Humpty Dumpty back together right now, is there underlying damage that's been done, or is this all within the realm of what happens when you see a break in the markets and it starts healing itself?
Look, I think there has been quite a bit of damage in the last seven or eight weeks. However, equities have pulled back to an area that is quite important. We have now seen evidence of volume dispersion that has been pretty significant, along with breadth being really washed out in recent weeks. So there is some evidence that equities have in fact made a bottom, or are in a bottoming process. That doesn't mean we move straight back to the highs. I think it's going to be a two-steps-forward, one-step-back process, or really an L-shaped stock market, probably for the next 30 to 60 days. So a lot of volatility, and that's not going away anytime soon. But there are at least some technical reasons to think markets have stabilized in the short run and can work a little better in the weeks and months to come.
Can I ask real quickly: when you say an L-shaped market from here, you mean we've already drawn the first line of the L, the downside, and now we're going to bounce around, not that there's another down leg to come before we get there?
Yes, we've seen some pretty severe deterioration. Now I think we could likely go sideways for another one or two months before starting a larger rally. So one to two months of sideways action before a larger rally, possibly breaking all-time highs.
Mark, head of technical strategy, what are the signs you're seeing that tell you the market has bottomed and is now stabilizing? I love the final prediction he makes at the end.
Listen, we've seen signs of technology really starting to stabilize this past week. One of the biggest moves in the Mag Seven off the lows, that's very encouraging. This morning's bank earnings are also very encouraging for the financial sector, at a time when everybody thought they would come in poor. Financials are the second-largest sector within the S&P, with technology the first. A lot of the pessimism and sentiment, with money suddenly moving out of the US abroad, I think is really ill-timed. We've actually seen the US outperform Europe and a lot of Asia over the last week. Most of the world seems to be catching up at the time when the US is finally starting to stabilize. We're going to see rates start to come down in the months to come. Rate cuts are coming. Many people are saying the Fed will need to cut rates.
And remember, Fundstrat still predicts Bitcoin hits $150,000 this year, if not much higher. Here's founder Tom Lee: "The Fed and central banks are easing, QT is ending. With positive Washington tailwinds, I think Bitcoin can do well through the end of the year. I think $150,000 or higher is still possible. I know it doesn't feel like it, but once we get through this tariff agenda, markets can look forward to things that could be positive."
I think most people are missing this. Bitwise, with $12 billion in assets under management, and its leadership have confirmed that Bitcoin is being drained from exchanges. So when this market comes back, Bitcoin's price will jump quickly and rally hard. Most people aren't savvy enough to do this research or seek it out. Make sure you subscribe to Altcoin Daily. We are one of the few who regularly share this kind of information.
The liquid supply: currently, the exchange balances of Bitcoin are the lowest, I think, going back to 2018, so that's many, many years. Bitcoin balances on exchanges have never been this low, and that signals a lack of sellers in the market. People move coins from cold storage to exchanges when they're ready to sell. If exchange balances are low, that means there are few sellers in the market, and that will become very interesting once prices rise and buyers return. My prediction, and of course I don't have a crystal ball and this isn't investment advice, is that when it starts moving back up, it's going to jump, because there simply aren't any sellers. If people are bidding and trying to buy and there are no sellers, they'll keep offering higher and higher prices to get the Bitcoin they want. So I expect it will gap up quite significantly when it starts to rise again.
Make sure you subscribe to Altcoin Daily for daily videos keeping you informed on everything crypto. Turn on notifications so you can be the first to comment, and your comments can rise to the top. Use our Bitrue Next affiliate link to trade crypto with no KYC. This is my favorite exchange for leverage trading; this one is one of the best. Make sure you use our affiliate link and start trading with us.
Comments 0