Restructuring local government debt is crucial for China's economic revival: Ray Dalio

요약 보기

중국의 지방정부 부채와 부동산 부채가 해결되지 않아 구조조정이 필요하며, 가계 자산 대부분이 부동산에 묶여 현금 보유가 늘고 있다. 지방정부 지출 의존도가 높아 디플레이션 위험이 커졌고, 금리를 물가 아래로 낮추는 통화완화와 위안화 약세가 필요하다는 주장이다. 투자자는 미국 기술주 집중에서 벗어나 물가연동채·금 등으로 분산하고, 국가별로는 재정·효율성·지정학 리스크가 낮은 아시아 국가(인도 등)를 고려해야 한다고 본다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. on the topic of China's weak economic data now I caught up with Ray Dalo founder of Bridgewater Associates on the sidelines of the milen institute's Asia Summit now he believes restructuring China's local government debt remains crucial for the country's economic Revival I think that China right now is at a juncture and I if I take the economic the the real problem is that the the real estate debt problem and the local government debt problem has not been dealt with adequately yet uh there needs to be a restructuring of uh the debt so if we look at uh China let's take the the various sectors within China the household sector 70% of their savings is in real estate that real estate's gone down stocks have gone down um incomes um are threatened and so they're holding money in cash and uh so that's a problem as far as government spending which a lot of the economy is dependent on um about 83% of government spending is local government spending and those local governments have gotten their money from uh selling land and also borrowing money they can't now make land sales and they um also uh the borrowing is is not going to work and those who they borrowed from are going to continue to have problems it's been let uh go too long and there needs to be a restructuring and and a CH change in monetary policy so from an economic point of view I think we're at an inflection point if that is not dealt with sooner then then there's the risk of something like a Japanese situation economically for that uh period so um I think that that's what it looks like domestically internationally again I think um the issue of taking manufacturing going to the third world and using uh Technologies of the chips in the third world will be part of the plan and I think that probably they'll continue to remain competitive in that so those are the issues that have to be dealt with I think so Ray if you had the ears of the Chinese policy makers how would you be advising them to handle the economy then now just what I've said it's the it's the difficult process of restructuring debt and it's a a very difficult process be particularly at a politically sensitive time because when you restructure debt you're restructuring value you when you you you're losing when you write down some of the debt you are uh riding down some some entities assets and so you have to that challenging exercise of restructuring the debt and then also having a monetary policy that is conducive to not holding money in cash there's a pushing on a string phenomenon in this part of the cycle and so right now when you have uh deflation and you have an interest rate that is above the inflation rate and you uh that is not it's the highest returning asset and it's the the safest asset you have to chase it out with a monetary policy in which interest rates are below the inflation rate that the nominal bond yield is below the nominal growth rate otherwise the debt continues to compound and become a problem and you have to have a positive slope yield curve and with that you'll probably have to have some currency weakness sort of the way the uh Japanese have dealt with their debt problem I'd like to talk about the investment environment I mean falling interest rates means a potentially new investment environment how should investors be adjusting their portfolio allocation I think the greatest challenge of investors is now how to diversify well because if you look at the returns of asset classes and and so on so much is concentrated in in how the US market and particularly the tech sector of the US market a limited number of companies have uh performed well so when you're looking at that there's an equity everybody's long and there's a long bias and it's concentrated in those limited number of companies which by the way reflects a limited number of people and a limited and and the the whole issue of the wealth Gap issue but anyway so when you're thinking about that you have to think about about how to diversify weal that's a whole other subject but I think that uh some issues like to think about uh maybe inflation index bonds rather than normal bonds I think there's some gold in the portfolio serves to diversify the portfolio so that if that those other assets don't perform well uh there's better levels of diversification and also where you invest um right now I would say internationally uh I would say the three things that I look at is as a country and just like individuals or companies do they uh what's their income statement and balance you like do they earn more than they spend and do they have assets more assets than liabilities that's going to be important in this time what is their internal Effectiveness do they have internal order or internal disorder how effective of they are being um uh productive and number three is are they in the risk of an international conflict I think that the neutral produ Ive countries so if I was to look at that I would say as you look to asan countries in this region some of those and India and so on those are the countries that are uh neutral in this and also have uh they're at the point where they have they're at their takeoff point they have enough Capital to invest and become more productive uh so diversification into those kinds of assets um it should be a part of the people's portfolios I believe