저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
Chamath는 비트코인과 크립토 시장의 체계적 위험이 매우 크며, 2018년 이후 스팀 머니로 올랐으나 대부분 거래가 온체인이 아닌 오프체인에서 이루어져 투명성이라는 핵심 가치가 무너졌다고 주장한다. 오프체인 중개소의 차익거래 구조(예: 테라 붕괴 시 담보 소멸)가 시스템 리스크를 키웠고, 일부 거래소는 이미 지급불능 상태일 수 있다는 샘 뱅크먼-프리드의 발언을 인용한다. 예금자의 자산 소유권(chain of custody)과 대출 계약 자체가 법적으로 집행 불가능할 수 있어 법적 분쟁이 이어질 것이라고 경고한다. 규제가 전무하여 파생상품 레버리지, 감사, 손익 집계 같은 기본 장치가 없고, 수조 달러 규모의 암호화폐 손실이 발생할 수 있어 규제당국의 대응 여부가 관건이라고 본다. 비트코인과 주식시장의 상관관계가 매우 높아 위험자산 전반의 흐름과 연동된다고 평가한다.
다듬은 글
that's what we're facing right now is an enormous amount of systemic risk largely around bitcoin a bunch of this money i think has been essentially just vaporized the level of grif that's happened in this market is extreme and especially when everybody was telling you no this time is different this market is completely different it's transparent it's on chain you can see every and it turns out actually most of it was not on chain it was off chain we can look at that together the crazy thing about this chart when you look at it is it and it's pretty obvious is that we are collectively in one way shape or form basically trading up ever since 2018 really with all the stimulus because if you look at you know the mean price of bitcoin of 2018 it was a nothing burp you know what we were talking about was you know price that was sort of between a few thousand dollars two three thousand ten three thousand you know and then all of a sudden when all of the stimulus money hit the market look what happened but i think something unique also happened which is that people really understood how to run these very complicated off-chain bitcoin arbs and i think we should explain what those are because those are what's behind the three arrows capital it's behind you know i think sam had this kind of oblique tweet that said you know some of these exchanges are actually already insolvent they're already the walking dead so the first thing to keep in mind is that you know this is a completely unregulated right there are no middlemaker market makers per se that actually have reporting requirements to any regulatory authority there aren't any clearing houses there isn't a way for us to understand systemic risk as it builds in the crypto market so what happened starting in 2018 and 19 is people realize the following things were true it's sort of what we talked about last week you go and do some crazy round you uh you know mark up some phantom equity in a company that company then issues tokens you then list the tokens not on you know a blockchain per se obviously but in a place where trades can happen off-chain right and there's a bunch of exchanges where these things happen off-chain because it's one you know company and then they have a bunch of segregated sub-accounts and what happens is when these things initially get listed retail goes crazy the price goes up folks basically dump on retail and you know you spin that loop as fast as you can and you can extract an enormous amount of money along the way all these things like d5 all of a sudden popped out of nowhere and it's like hey you can earn 15 16 17 18 just deposit the bitcoin and so folks would deposit bitcoin but then what would happen is like the places where those deposits were held would then need to obviously find places to make that 11 12 or 13 and so then they would go off chain to some other random person who was offering to pay them even more than that and they would try to arb the difference but it all catches up with you because when something like a terror goes to zero all the bitcoin that was used to basically you know uh run that defy process around tara vanishes you know and then all of a sudden you the lender are like hey can i have my uh bitcoin back and the broker's like well actually i don't have it i lent it to somebody else let me ask that someone else and they're like i'm sorry i don't have it but i have these tara coins you know because i was running some arb and now it went to zero and that's essentially what we're seeing right now so we have two big problems and then i think we have a third that's kind of funny the first big problem is like obviously in the absence of any regulatory oversight this stuff is going to happen systemic risks are going to build up that's what we're facing right now is an enormous amount of systemic risk largely around bitcoin a bunch of this money i think has been essentially just vaporized and so all these people that try to find their deposits especially in custodial accounts in off-chain brokers may be sol at some point and i think that's just going to be a huge show if that actually happened so that that's the first problem you have absolutely zero oversight which means systemic risk has been built up in the system the second thing is that exactly what you just said jason is that people don't even understand chain of custody here which is that you thought that you owned this bitcoin it turns out you actually may not actually own them at all you thought that you were properly lending them out you actually don't there is no enforceable contract it turns out and so i think that's going to be an entire set of different legal issues that are now going to come to the service because people who actually legitimately lent this stuff out for example like if you short a stock and you go and borrow stock from any one of us they're really tight guardrails you know if you wanted to go and put a credit derivative swap on against that there's a central clearinghouse that make sure you're not over levered you know you have to go and get audited by a bank to even get in a the kind of account that allows you to put these derivatives on none of that was possibly encrypted but every other market is regulated and there's a full accounting of the p l's on the dollars that are won in the dollars that are lost and here some folks have just you know basically escaped with billions and billions and billions of dollars and the bag holder is just you know a regional investor so the real question is are regulators going to actually care to try to do something because the level of grip that's happened in this market is extreme especially when everybody was telling you no this time is different this market is completely different it's transparent it's on chain you can see every and it turns out actually most of it was not on chain it was off chain i think that they found all of these words you know written in these economic textbooks that allowed them frankly to justify what a lot of people were doing in a lot of other markets which is just straight up speculation because the money printer was going by and if you look at this 92 correlation to the equity markets i suspect in bitcoin and crypto is probably closer to even 100 because it really was the furthest out on the risk curve and it just made the most sense when you thought money was you know effectively infinitely going to be available to just buy the riskiest risk assets the feature that was touted was actually the first one to get thrown away which was transparency when all of this activity was actually happening off-chain this is why you have this systemic risk issue now when sam is saying some of these exchanges are actually insolvent what he's saying is well that exchange has one master wallet address every time you open an account and transact on such exchange you're actually just transferring between a database entry inside of that company and so it may look like it is fine but it is actually not fun that's what he's claiming this is the problem with all of this so all of this activity you know built on these principles of openness and you know defensibility and you know you you can't inflate it and you know devalue it and debase it turned out to not even matter because the fundamental principle that would allow us to verify all of that was violated right from the get-go which was transparency all of it is happening in the dark most of this stuff is happening off-chain and if you think that you know it's okay to torch a trillion dollars of equities well at least there's rules on the equity side but to torch two and a half trillion dollars in crypto where there are no rules you know it'll be a very telling sign to see if these folks get their act together and but meaning regulators and politicians and do something you
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