Michael Saylor Bitcoin: "Peter Schiff is NOT Smart! You will LOSE 95% of your Money!"

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결론: 사이러스는 비트코인을 장기 희소 자산으로 보며, 금 및 금광주 비판과 달리 특정 자산의 단기 가격 방향은 명시하지 않음. 주제 1 — 피터 쉬프 비판 및 금 비교 - 쉬프는 비트코인에 대한 구체적 대안 없이 비판만 한다고 주장. - 쉬프는 포트폴리오의 약 5%만 금에 두고 나머지 95%는 불명확한 자산에 둔다고 지적. - 금광 기업들은 금을 자산으로 보유하지 않고 매도하므로 금이 화폐라고 믿지 않는 것으로 해석. - 금광주에 대한 쉬프의 투자는 금 가격 하락에 베팅하는 것이라는 주장. 주제 2 — 분산투자와 통화 붕괴 리스크 - 주식·채권·부동산 등 대부분 자산은 통화와 상관관계가 높아 통화 붕괴 시 함께 하락. - 진정한 분산은 비주권형 가치저장 수단(희소 자산)에서 가능하다고 주장. - 프리미엄 부동산 등도 달러 대비 가치 변화를 통해 통화 붕괴 정도를 관찰 가능하다고 언급. 주제 3 — 리스크 및 무위험 수익률 - 모든 자산에는 블랙스완 리스크가 존재한다고 인정. - 현금을 방치하는 것의 비용은 화폐 인플레이션율이며, 다수 통화에서 장기적으로 큰 가치 손실 발생 가능. - 신흥국 투자자에게는 무위험 수익률이 훨씬 높다는 주장. 주제 4 — 테더(USDT) 및 달러 접근성 - 많은 국가 국민이 현지 은행보다 테더를 더 신뢰하는 이유를 설명. - 아르헨티나 사례: 1달러=1페소 시기에 은행 달러 계좌를 개설했으나 정부 조치로 약 90% 손실을 봤다고 주장. 주제 5 — 비트코인의 희소성 - 비트코인은 2,100만 개 한도가 있는 희소 자산이라 주장. - 부동산, 금, 주식, 채권 등은 가격 상승 시 공급 증가 가능하다고 설명. 주제 6 — 리스크 질문 답변 - 비트코인 미래에 리스크가 0이라고 말하지 않으며, 리스크는 존재하지만 대안 대비 상대적으로 낮다고 주장.

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01. you seem 100 certain about what you're talking about that means that you're going to lose 95 of your wealth what's the answer the issue with peter's not offering a solution to the world right he's simply trolling bitcoin for example he's got more investment in gold stocks gold miners than gold well gold miners are short the fundamental point here is you have to give the world a solution to their problem not just be a critic if you want to be a critic you can criticize everything but what's his answer if you listen if you listen to peter's debates what he says is he only has five percent of his portfolio invested in gold which means that he has 95 invested in something else but what is the something else and the point is you know you're back in the same you know hedge fund shuffle mentality it's like just give me all your money and i'm just gonna shuffle it with random 95 opacity on random stuff back and forth but don't question it what about the five if it was it was a recommendation he would own more than 50 percent of his portfolio in the gold but he doesn't believe in it but his argument would be his argument would be i don't recommend people to buy fifty percent i recommend people to buy two to five percent that's his position he doesn't have an answer to the vote that means that you're going to lose 95 percent of your wealth so what's the answer so and your point is diversity and by the way i already i have a debate if you go online and you google michael saylor gold debate you'll find a pretty good debate that's got more than two million views right now where i go point by point through the differences between bitcoin and gold the issue with peter's not offering a solution to the world right he's simply trolling bitcoin and he's not trolling bitcoin with any any real concrete criticism other than he just doesn't like it right peter is anti-everything for example he's got more investment in gold stocks gold miners than gold well gold miners are short gold gold miners incentive is to dump as much gold on the market as possible as fast as possible if you read the balance sheets of the gold miners what you'll find is they don't hold gold as an asset so so gold miners don't believe gold is money if they did they wouldn't sell it they'd buy it and peter doesn't believe gold is money if he did he wouldn't allocate 95 of his wealth to something other than it and ultimately the fundamental issue with peter is you know he's just debated you know he's debated this issue for a decade all of his argument is just i don't like bitcoin he hasn't come up with anything worth refuting that i can see and if you go online you'll find three four five six peter schiff debates and he just doesn't say anything other than just park i can't see it's constructive this is a reasonably constructive uh debate if you go to me and frank gestra where we actually had a lot of back and forth fundamentally though find me somebody in the world that has invested more than 50 of a portfolio and gold at a billion dollar level my position is pretty clear i've invested almost four billion dollars in bitcoin and i'm not telling you you need to invest half your portfolio in it i'm just saying that i think that it is it is money it is an asset it will appreciate in value and one can create a strategy where it is the the dominant uh part of the strategy there are other people that have invested in companies amazon was jeff bezos strategy i get it big tech other people have bought city blocks in new york city that's a valid strategy so investing in property or investing in technology is a valid strategy but on the other hand find me someone that has actually bet five billion dollars on gold where it constitutes more than fifty percent of their portfolio and it's their own money and peter's not one peter hasn't bet on gold peter's betting on gold going down he's buying the bitcoin the gold miners that are dumping the gold making the gold price decay so that doesn't make any sense if you dig into the gold miner balance sheets read the the two three biggest gold miners what you'll find is they overmind the gold dump the gold then they pay an income tax then they've divided it out their excess and pay a dividend tax then they pay off their debt which is two percent so another way to say it is they would rather loan money out to the world for two percent interest than whole gold that's how bad they don't like gold the fundamental elephant in the room here is when the currency collapses give me a diversification strategy for russian stocks right now which of those do you want to hold when the currency collapses the bonds collapse that are that are linked to the currency all the companies that generate cash flows and the currency they all collapse because they're valued as a stream of cash flows and if the cash is worthless how is the company going to be valuable you sell beef in argentina the peso collapses the people are buying the beef and pesos so you want to sell the beef to europeans for euros the government passes a law keeping you from selling the beef or exporting your beef export controls come wage and price controls come so the problem is every equity every piece of debt every piece of property linked to the currency is correlated to the currency so your diversification strategy with any given currency whether it's the peso the dollar the euro the ruble the lira the whatever they're all correlated so then you're like okay well this is great i'm just going to buy the dollar all the currencies are correlated to the dollar and the dollar is collapsing how fast is the dollar collapsing well you can watch it against real estate in miami beach right you know you can walk all you got to do is look at the at the dollar versus any scarce desirable piece of property so what's the dollar valued in versus a picasso a leonardo da vinci a city block in new york city a desirable piece of bench beachfront property and how about palm beach right what's happened to palm beach property in the past 10 years so ultimately the problem with diversification is nearly everything every stock is correlated and and every every conventional asset is generally correlated the only true diversification is if you find non-sovereign stores of value stores of value that have that derived their value based upon something other than the cash flows that you could derive from them right so think hard about what those are real pristine trophy properties it might protect you you seem a hundred percent certain about what you're talking about are you a hundred percent certain about the future of bitcoin and that it it has zero risk there's no risk that could be anything i don't think you can state that no i think that everything in life has risk so there's a black swan risk an unknown unknown and anybody intellectually honest has to admit that there is that risk that's not what i would say what i would say is you have to you've got a bucket of money let's come back to africa okay you've got hundred thousand dollars in africa you've got invested in something you've got to put it into a building and to land into an african currency into something else what are you gonna do there is a hundred percent certainty that you're gonna lose eighty percent of your money in most currencies over the next decade there's a hundred percent certainty you're gonna lose 95 percent of your wealth over 30 years in just about every currency and so you have to work through each of these issues and say what's the cost of doing nothing what's the cost of not taking a risk what's the risk-free rate well i mean the risk-free rate is the monetary inflation rate so the price that you pay to not do something is the rate at which the money is collapsing if you were russian they just lost 35 of their wealth by not doing anything in the matter of weeks so so in this particular case you just have to look at the array of options if uh if you're an investor in uh south america or asia or africa i would say the risk-free rate is much higher for you right the ins like you're in lebanon what are you gonna do in lebanon how about afghanistan how about iraq right what are you going to do in all those situations they're thinking maybe i'll trust my money to tether tether's run by bitfenix it's just a company so why is it that people in many countries are more willing to trust a company out of hong kong that's running a stable coin on the crypto network then they're willing to trust their local bank because in fact tether is probably a better bet than than betting your money on most currencies in the world other than the top 12 currencies the rest are collapsing why do tether if you can just do the us dollar or usdc well you can't that's the point why do why do tether if you could just do the us dollar okay how many people in africa can walk into a bank of america in new york city open an account and then get the us dollar none of them that's the whole point right and okay i did it i'll give you an example i put a million dollars into bank of america in argentina when the dollar was worth one peso because i didn't trust the peso i did it what do you think happened the government basically shut down for one day they sent an edict to the bank saying all dollars must be converted back into pesos then they went off the dollar peg and they divided the peso ten to one and i lost ninety percent of my money okay so why do tether instead of trust bank of america in argentina you tell me right because what's the odds that tether is going to go to zero in the next year if the odds were 90 your money is going to zero in the next year by putting it somewhere else then you would think maybe that's a risk i want to take so you know people are forced out the risk curve based upon the monetary policy and in a hyper-inflating economy in zimbabwe right you're going to take everything you've got you're going to buy anything right the reason that bitcoin is magical is because there's only 21 million i can create more real estate in new york city i can create more cars i can create more luxury watches i can print i can create more gold i can create more shares of stock i can create more bonds i can create any commodity their commodities by definition given enough money and time i can create infinite of any of them bitcoin is a scarcity okay name another scarcity in the world right and technically it's not clear there is another scarcity right a scarcity is something of which it is absolutely capped if the price goes up by a factor of a thousand or a million it is absolutely capped that is not the case with gold soybeans silver stock bonds real estate single family homes ship planes trains nothing else everything else could be manufactured and of course if the price goes up this the incentive to manufacture more will go up which is why you know buying a house isn't necessarily going to be a great store of value and inflating economy because you're going to have incentives for someone else