저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 비트코인은 기술주 랠리와 금 모두와 디커플링되어 있어 근거 없이 하락할 가능성이 크다고 본다. 비트코인과 기술주 괴리: 3월 17일 이후 나스닥은 10% 이상 올랐으나 비트코인은 횡보하며 ARKK 등 혁신 ETF 대비 뒤처짐. 과거 강한 상관관계가 깨졌다고 평가. 비트코인 전망: 기술주와도, 금과도 연동되지 않으면 매수 이유가 없어져 하락할 것이라 주장. 현재 디지털 금 서사에도 회의적. 금 시장: 금 가격이 2,000달러 아래로 급락, 연준 매파 발언과 6월 금리 인상 기대가 원인. 금 가격은 연초 고점 대비 약 1% 위지만 GDX는 4%, GDXJ는 8% 하락해 투자자 심리가 약하다고 진단. 연준과 인플레이션: 연준이 인플레이션 싸움에서 밀리고 있으며 5%로 못 잡았으면 5.25%로도 못 잡는다고 봄. 4월 CPI 4.9%도 목표 2% 대비 높다고 지적. 시장 기대에 대한 반론: 시장은 금리 인하와 QE 재개를 기대하며 기술주에 베팅 중이나, 저자는 인플레이션이 재가열되어 연준이 금리를 다시 올릴 수밖에 없다고 봄. 다음 경기침체는 달러 위기와 물가 재상승을 촉발할 것이라 주장. 기술적 관점: 비트코인은 27,500달러 저항선 돌파에 실패. 다만 방송은 비트코인 마진 및 선물 시장이 상승 돌파를 선호하기 시작했다고 언급. 리스크: 지역은행 붕괴 등 복수의 리스크 이벤트가 상존.
다듬은 글
Bitcoin is not going along with the tech ride since March 17th about that time where the NASDAQ is up better than 10 percent Bitcoin is flat as the FED is hiking rates in order to fight inflation that is putting downward pressure on the value of these lower yielding longer term instruments so this is something that those you know ignorant fools at the fomc were oblivious to because they didn't understand economics Peter Schiff the imminent Economist and Global strategist at Euro Pacific Capital has drawn attention to the remarkable inverse price fluctuations witnessed in Gold stocks and Bitcoin last week the gold market experienced a substantial decline with prices plunging below the two thousand dollars per ounce threshold this significant sell-off was primarily triggered by the stern rhetoric of numerous Federal Reserve officials coupled with a growing anticipation of an imminent interest rate hike in June according to Peter gold may be a better choice for those seeking a stable long-term investment while Bitcoin may be more suitable for those looking for a high risk High reward investment opportunity in his tweet he said the reason investors are buying tick stocks instead of gold stocks is that they expect the FED to begin its next easing cycle soon but they also expect CPI measured hashtag inflation to keep coming down when they are surprised by a rising CPI they'll sell tick and buy gold stocks Bitcoin is not going along with the tech ride since March 17th about that time where the NASDAQ is up better than 10 percent Bitcoin is flat Bitcoin hasn't gained at all in fact it's lagging behind the arc ETF there used to be a very strong correlation between Bitcoin and the arc you know Innovation ETF and that is broken down I mean Bitcoin isn't correlated to any Tech anymore because it's just kind of flat line as all this Tech is going up now I know a lot of people in the Bitcoin Community are saying well that's because it's now correlated with gold right because gold has kind of been flat uh for the past couple of months in fact gold is only about one percent above it's January Peak uh and by the way to show you where the sentiment is the GDX gold stocks today closed four percent below the January Peak and the Juniors the gdxj they're eight percent below their January Peak so even though gold has gone up a percent a one percent higher than its high water mark in January the Junior Gold Mining stocks are eight percent down from where they were when gold was one percent lower so that shows you uh the investors uh mentality in fact investors are selling gold stocks or they probably don't even own them so they can't really sell them maybe they're shorting them uh and they're buying tech stocks but but why are they doing this what is the driving force behind this and in fact before I get into it though just to make one point on on bitcoin before I I move away from this topic I think the fact that Bitcoin is no longer moving up with these spec names that is a bad sign it is not a good sign that will now finally it's digital gold and it's correlated to gold I don't necessarily know that that logic is going to is going to flow what may in fact happen is that when gold finally breaks out of this range and gold stocks break out maybe Bitcoin won't follow gold either and if if it's not going to follow Tech higher and it's not going to follow gold higher then what's it going to do well it's just going to drop because I know it's not digital gold it was reinvented as some type of Highly volatile you know correlated asset to risk on uh but if it's it's no longer correlated to Tech and if it's not correlated golden is correlated to nothing and it's just going to go down because there is no reason to buy it Schiff asserts that the industry is dependent on artificially low interest rates are currently experiencing a gradual disintegration as their Foundation proves to be fragile according to Schiff the FED is losing its fight with inflation that's why it's going to try harder but it's going to be ineffective if they couldn't beat inflation with five percent they're not going to beat it with 5.25 percent as of Friday morning market pricing data from the CME Group reveals a probability of approximately 35 percent for the fed's potential approval of another interest rate hike during its upcoming gym meeting current data suggests a robust economy and labor market along with inflation levels that despite declining from their peak in 2022 remained significantly above the Federal reserve's target of 2 percent in a tweak Peter said no one should be excited about April CPI Rising just 4.9 percent versus expectations of a five percent gain 4.9 percent is still well above the fed's two percent Target and likely represents trough hashtag inflation also April's four percent rise in consumer prices is much higher than the one percent rise the prior month the move into Tech apart from AI which is just part of the theme is the belief that the Fed is either done hiking or close enough to being done that the Traders can now see the whites of the eyes of the First Rate cut and that's what the markets are doing they are looking beyond the rate hike whether we have a rate hike uh in in June or not and whether or not there's another quarter point hike I mean either we've topped out now at five to five and a quarter or maybe the markets think another 50 basis points Max 25 basis points maybe and then that's it so we're 90 percent of the way done with the tightening and there's just this little bit left before we get relief before we get more of the drug uh in form of rate Cuts or expanded QE and the tech stocks the tech investors are anticipating that the next round of monetary easing will be just as good for Tech as qe1 or QE2 three or four everybody expects more of the same and one of the reasons is because they expect the inflation rate to come way down and so they expect us to return to the same Goldilocks environment that the tech stocks were operating under for the past decade or more which is an accommodating fed with cheap money low interest rates all in an environment where inflation is perceived to be below two percent that is The Sweet Spot that's what these high multiple stocks need to justify the valuations and to continue the the flows that are necessary to keep these stocks going up because it's not the earnings that are going to power them it's not the dividends that are going to power them it's going to be the momentum of money chasing them which is a byproduct of the monetary policy well I think they're wrong I think that they're right in sensing that the FED is getting close to the end of this cycle although they're wrong in their belief that the FED is going to be able to complete another easing cycle see I think that even if we Peak at five to five and a half that after the FED starts cutting they're not getting down to zero they're not even getting to one they probably won't even get to two because at some point inflation is going to be running so hot that they're going to have to do an about face they're going to have to start hiking rates and that's what the markets are getting wrong that's what the bond market is getting wrong they're right about sensing the recession but they're wrong in assuming that recession means a return to two percent inflation it doesn't the next recession is actually going to be a catalyst for a dollar crisis and a resurgent in consumer prices so inflation as measured by the CPI is going to be headed higher as the economy and markets are going are headed lower and that is the outcome for which nobody is prepared including the Federal Reserve Traders are still tiptoeing around markets as multiple risk events remain at the Forefront but Bitcoin margin and Futures markets are starting to favor a bullish Breakout Bitcoin has been trying to break above the 27 500 resistance for the past week but to no avail two assets that are in focus for today are gold and Bitcoin the latter serves as an alternative store of value amid collapsing Regional banks in the U.S what do you think the future holds for Bitcoin and gold in terms of price and value to wrap up our discussion today we invite you to leave your thoughts in the comments section if you found this content useful please show your support by giving it a thumbs up and subscribing to our channel for the latest news and videos thanks for joining us
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