저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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트럼프의 캐나다·멕시코 25%, 중국 10% 관세 발표를 비판. 경제적으로 GDP 몇 가 감소·CPI 소폭 상승 예상되나 침체까지는 아님. 휘발유 가격 즉시 상승, 아보카도 등 식품 가격 상승이 미디어에 크게 부각되어 정치적으로 역효과. 공화당 하원 과반 취약으로 의원들 반발 가능. 관세가 장기 지속되고 인하되지 않으면 주식시장 상승은 어렵다고 봄. 단기 관세 가능성을 시사.
다듬은 글
well on Sunday president Trump announced 25% tariffs against products coming from Canada and Mexico as well as 10% tariffs coming from product from China president has said that it is connected to the level of fentanyl making its way into the us there have also been questions around immigration but there are many questions to be asked as to how this will impact all of the parties involved including Americans due to the expected retaliatory tariffs by both of our neighbors Jeremy seagull Wharton is Professor of Finance joins us to talk it all over Jeremy great to have you on the show thanks for your time thank you Dan happy to be here thank you all right so let's start right at the get-go um president Trump announces these tariffs what are your thoughts uh not a good idea I think it's not good economically and it's not good politically and I'll I'll explain that uh in just a moment uh first of all you know as we're talking you know they don't supposed to take effect till midnight you know there may be brinksmanship here you know by tomorrow they may be gone a lot of the effect obviously depends on how long they're they're going to be on um but uh you know uh this is uh this is is going to uh it it's certainly not going to tank the US economy it's not going to put us in the recession uh if they last let's say two two or three months um um even without retaliation a few tents off of GDP a few ten up on the CPI Consumer Price Index but here here's where I I think uh we have to think about here and that's a political effect um we're going to get a rise in price in in gasoline we already see Futures up uh three or four cents gasoline is the most visible price you know everyone's talking about avocados and the up coming Super Bowl and guac and uh people love to talk about this the mainstream media let's face it which is who are not Trump's friends are going to get on every single story that every penny and all the rest uh and so there's there's there's going to be a lot of negative press um because I don't think people say you know what I'm I'm I'm paying for more for my guac because of something on fentol and Canadian borders uh I don't know if that's going to ring with them uh secondly there's going to be certain congre now here's where the critical thing this is what's critical in my opinion um the Republicans have a very narrow margin in the house uh they want to pass this huge Omnibus Bill they cannot afford to lose anybody you know let's face it one two at most there there's a lot of congressmen and women in districts that are going to be very affected by this negatively and they're going to get some negative feedback uh speaker Johnson's going to hear about this I expect speaker Johnson to go to Trump and said uh you know um let me just tell you you want to pass this bill we're having uh some you know we may lose four five six votes and it's dead right I mean there's where the rubber hits the road real if you want to know the truth where uh where the political pressure I mean first of all it is very sad commentary on our government system that Congress who was uh supposed to given the sole rights to impos tariffs in the Constitution gave those rights away to the president of the United States by the way the first law 1962 but by the way with a overwhelmingly Democratic House and Senate passed it signed by Kennedy and um to give him the right uh in National Emergency which was what he called there have been other bills subsequently that have given him the right in of fair trade practice of else but basically Congress I think Congress wants those rights back yeah but they can't get them back because even if they even if if if if if they say hey they pass a try to pass a law don't forget uh Trump has veto power over that law and they don't have two-thirds to overturn that by any means so they gave up a big issue um uh you know that's water under the dam as far as that's concerned um so the there's I I think the political impact here is what's important particularly in terms of uh passing the Omnibus and tax bill that the Republicans want to do because let's face it I mean Trump came in with pretty good uh approval ratings an Era of Good Feeling squabbles among the Republicans have have been uh at a low let us say uh since the presidency uh why does he want to you know uh uh stir the Hornets Nest here uh because uh he won't get his bills passed if he does so you mentioned gasoline Futures uh already seeing a tick up yeah uh for consumer in general how quickly and how would they see these tariffs start to have an impact well on gasoline right away there are many gas stations that price immediately off Futures I mean that that's their formula I mean even before they get it they they price off Futures uh so you know we could see a couple pennies two or three pennies four pennies within two or three days on gasoline now what super markets do about guac um uh well let's say avocados not and and and guac is a derivative there of course I mean that's up to them 80% of our avocados come from can uh from Mexico uh so obviously the price of the remaining ones would go up there will be a run on them I think if if uh if firms keep the prices you might see sell-offs on on them if they don't raise the prices so this has the ability to to have I mean this is not going to change anyone's you know a fundamental Financial lifestyle but it's the visible stuff that media that social media love and it's GNA just feed into it day after day after day um and not I think at all to the benefit of President Trump so let's also throw in the component of the Federal Reserve last week not cutting rates uh and and what kind of impact and this has been a back and forth talking point especially since the president brought up the idea of tariffs in the first place of what kind of potential impact tariffs just maybe larger scale would have on the impact on inflation that we're seeing right now yeah well it you know if it is um um longterm if there is retaliation um and then of course Trump is even you know saying that he could raise these rates um then you're going to have a tick up in the rate of inflation now there is a big debate among Economist and the FED whether a tick up of inflation due to tariffs should uh re be a response because it's it's not excess demand it's really an external supply side issue where the FED might say well this is going to pass through I'm I'm not going to try to you know make things worse by tightening credit uh that would uh so I mean even even I would say let that pass through it's a oneshot increase um so uh uh obviously if they tried to raise rates as an excuse that would certainly bring the eye of trump on them but don't forget the the next uh meeting is not until March 19th so we you know we basically have uh you know you know six seven weeks right now before and we'll see how this all settles out uh by then is it your belief then that that there's more of a chance that the tariffs that were announced are are a better chance of shortterm than they are longterm it seems to make political sense to me that they're shortterm um because otherwise I think uh uh you know he will hear the feedback um and he's going to get the feedback both from legislators uh uh and and the public um who are not going to like all these stories about uh increases in some of their favorite foods it's just it's just the type of stuff which the news media loves to eat up how much pun there no yeah exactly how much how much does Canada and Mexico retaliate do you think I think that depend depends on the length of time um really I think they're set to retaliate I mean I've already heard that you know some you know some Canadian uh liquor stores have taken American liquor off of the shelves you know this is us you know we bu we make good liquor ourselves so there's going to be a little bit already even you know of unofficial retaliation um you know hey just don't buy American Goods even if we don't retaliate I mean you know I mean that that that was almost you know maybe maybe that's some of the source of why Apple phone sales have been weak in China there was that bu you know by uh non us Goods so there there's going to be some of that I don't think I mean right now uh there's going to be a few retaliations that are in a fraction of it and I think everyone's sitting down to see in the next few days whether you know uh Trump is uh going to settle this deal how much do the markets react to this I think it totally depends on how long but let me say as long as these tariffs are in effect and are not lowered it's very hard to see the stock market going up Jeremy always great to get your thoughts and your Insight thank you very much thank you Dan you got it Jeremy seagull uh Wharton ameritus professor of Finance
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