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In fact, crypto has been outperforming since the war started. This is Bitcoin um on the left relative to the S&P 500 and the right is Ethereum. And as you can see, ever since the war started, crypto has been outperforming. Since the war started, uh gold has actually underperformed. 48% of the time, gold actually had a return below inflation.
So, as much as you think gold only goes up cuz it did go up a lot last year, uh it's not as good an inflation as you think. In fact, Bitcoin is a better inflation hedge. So, 97% of the time since the creation of Bitcoin, it's outperformed inflation. In that same period of time, gold has only beaten inflation 56% of the time.
So, Bitcoin is a better inflation hedge than gold. What if everything you've been told about crypto being dead is actually happening right at the exact moment it's about to come back to life? While most investors are panicking, while headlines scream uncertainty, and while crypto prices have been brutally beaten down, smart money might already be positioning for the next major move.
And according to top market strategist Tom Lee, the signals are quietly aligning for something big. Let's zoom out for a second. Markets don't move randomly. They follow narratives, big global forces that shape how money flows. Right now, the biggest force driving everything, oil. . And I think the macro suggests that crypto is bottoming soon.
Okay. So, first, I think uh we should think about oil prices because oil prices really have been the the reason stocks have been down. [snorts] Uh a lot of emerging market equities are down. And the reality is though is I think the war is going to be here for a long time. Um the reason I think that is we look at prediction markets.
And this one is, "When will crude hit $100 by the end of March?" And the probability is 86%. So, that to me tells me the markets are bracing for oil prices to be elevated for quite a long time, for at least the next 2 weeks. And then if we ask prediction markets, you know, where do the prediction market bets about $100 oil by the end of June, which is 3 months from now, it's at 88%.
So, I think you have to think, "Well, oil's going to be high for a long time. Uh and in fact, it's going to have risks to global growth." Okay. For instance, from the Strait of Hormuz, uh who are the biggest buyers of oil for all the oil flowing through there, um you can see it's China, India, South Korea, Japan, and Europe.
So, the global economies that depend on oil from this area are paying for not only high oil, but actually have restricted supplies. That's the growth risk. But, when you have growth concerns, okay? When growth is scarce, investors want to buy growth stocks. There's a word in Chinese, kiki, uh which is for crisis.
And remember, it's made of two words, danger and opportunity. So, I just listed the danger for you, which is high oil prices. But, when oil prices are high, then you want to favor areas that aren't affected by high oil. Well, one of the re- areas is the United States because the US is a producer of oil.
Therefore, if oil prices are high, uh the US economy actually benefits from it. So, no matter what you really hear and people are concerned about gasoline prices in America, on balance, the US benefits from high oil. But, what's interesting is that the US stock market is very much a grow- a growth index.
So, when you're buying stocks in Europe or Asia, you're primar- primarily buying value, except for Korea, uh which is a growth index. So, let's see what's happened since the war started. Since the war started, uh gold has actually underperformed. But, do you see mag seven has outperformed the S&P 500?
And then this chart on the right is software stocks. Software stocks have actually outperformed the in the US since the war started. Why does that matter? Well, crypto is highly correlated to growth stocks in America. For instance, uh the white line here is the software index in the US. And the orange line here is Bitcoin.
As you can see, they kind of have the same chart. So, if we have oil concerns and investors are buying growth stocks, that actually means they're they're going to begin to buy crypto. And uh that's the case. In fact, crypto has been outperforming since the war started. This is Bitcoin um on the left relative to the S&P 500 and the right is Ethereum.
And as you can see, ever since the war started, crypto has been outperforming. Okay. Now, I believe Ethereum is bottoming soon. It's been a terrible crypto winter. Um since October of last year, crypto is down roughly 60 or 70%, and it's been very painful. But, I I do believe we're actually near a bottom.
The first reason for this is that I think gold is no longer outperforming crypto. So, last year, gold outperformed crypto, uh rose 73% last year while Bitcoin fell 30%. But, gold has gotten too big. Gold is now a $41 trillion asset class, okay? Which means it's bigger than the stock market. Now, I don't think it's too large, but it's become so big that its volatility is affecting your portfolio.
For instance, in a single day, gold's price value changes by roughly $5 trillion, okay? That is four times the size of Bitcoin. So, if you own gold, which is great, remember a lot of people own a lot of gold, but that means you probably don't own enough Bitcoin. And you might be owning gold because you think it's a good inflation hedge, but I do want to keep you uh grounded on the facts.
[clears throat] In the last 55 years, gold has underperformed inflation 48% of the time. So, if you look at 3-year return, 48% of the time, gold actually had a return below inflation. So, as much as you think gold only goes up cuz it did go up a lot last year, uh it's not as good an inflation as you think.
In fact, Bitcoin is a better inflation hedge. Since 2009, Bitcoin has only underperformed inflation 3% of the months. So, 97% of the time since the creation of Bitcoin, it's outperformed inflation. In that same period of time, gold has only beaten inflation 56% of the time. So, Bitcoin is a better inflation hedge than gold.
Now, let's talk about something happening behind the scenes. The crypto industry itself is evolving. There are now dozens, over 80 digital asset treasury companies. But, here's the reality, only a few actually matter. Why? Because in markets liquidity is everything. Institutional investors don't just buy assets, they buy assets they can easily trade.
And right now, the vast majority of trading volume is concentrated in just a couple of players. That means the industry is consolidating. Strong players are getting stronger. Weak ones are fading away. This is what we call a market shakeout. And historically, shakeouts happen right before major recoveries.
There's uh a lot of DATs out there cuz Bitmain is a digital asset treasury. But, in 2025, I think that there's been a a very clear shakeout, and it's what we call the rise of the dominant DATs. There's uh over 80 digital asset treasuries out there today. And uh but only two of them actually have meaningfully captured any assets.
Uh it's MicroStrategy with about $52 billion of Bitcoin, of Bitcoin. And then number two is Bitmain. It's about $11 billion of Ethereum held today. And as you can see here, uh everyone else is quite small. I think more important than how much crypto you own is how much trading volume you have as a stock.
Because liquidity is the lifeblood of a treasury. You know, do people own and trade the stock? Do they want to own it? And are they buying it? And here you can see that Bitmain and MicroStrategy account for 90% of all the trading volume of crypto treasuries. So, out of the 100 or so total crypto treasuries out there, only two really are the ones investors are buying, especially institutions, because institutions can only own something that is liquid as well.
And when you look at Ethereum only, you can see Bitmain is much larger than the than the peer group. So, for instance, compared to the number two Ethereum treasury, we're five times bigger. In fact, in maybe a about three or four more weeks, we'll be six times bigger than the next largest treasury. And if you look at trading volume, which is the chart on the right, we're 14 times more liquid than the next treasury.
So, if you're an institutional investor, uh really there's only one um treasury you're going to be buying on Ethereum. So, now you might be disappointed because Bitmain is down. Uh you might have bought it a higher price, but there's a reality that the the digital asset treasuries are going to track the price of crypto.
So, we're not designed to go up if Ethereum goes down. But, what's important is for us to outperform Ethereum on the ups on the ups and the downs. Last year, e- uh Bitmain launched its treasury strategy on June 30th. And from June 30th to the end of 2025, Bitmain rose 500%. Whereas in that same 6-month period, Ethereum rose 22%.
Which means on the upside, Bitmain outperformed Ethereum by 500 uh sorry, 48,000 basis points. Okay? So, think of that as in the up cycle, we're going to drastically outperform Ethereum. In 2026, [clears throat] Ethereum is down 32%. But, Bitmain stock is down 21. So, it's again disappointing that it's down, but you can see we're outperforming Ethereum when it goes down.
And uh there's a couple reasons for that. We have four pillars of growth. Okay? The first is to maximize the yield on our treasury. So, that's simple. Ethereum generates a yield almost 3%. So, we just need to optimize the yield for you if you own Bitmain. And we can do something else, too. We can actually pursue alpha strategies.
So, we get money every week because institutions are buying our stock. And we can time the purchase of our Ethereum. We decided to work with Mosaic and Tom DeMark to basically identify the optimal time to buy Ethereum. We have estimated it's saved us about $100 million a month. But, here's what's interesting.
We've been preparing for the end of the crypto winter. So, we've been assuming Ethereum prices would fall this year, which they have. So, we've been slowing our purchases, but we've built a lot of cash. We have 1.2 billion in cash now. But, we've also decided to do something very important. We we think that it's a V-shaped bottom coming.
So, we want to lock in low Ethereum prices far beyond our purchasing capability, so that when Ethereum prices recover, we've locked in really cheap Ethereum. Again, that's working with someone like Tom DeMark. And unlike other crypto treasuries, we have no debt. I think it's been important to keep our balance sheet clean.
So, we don't have any convertible bonds, we don't have any debt, no preferred stock, and we have again over 1.2 billion in cash. And we're making money from staking. As you can see, our staking annualized revenue by week is pretty big. Uh it was only 34 million in December. Now it's about 175 million a year, but we haven't fully staked our ETH.
Our staked ETH is when we fully stake it is going to be 200 $59 million uh annualized. Uh annualized, and this is at $2,000 ETH. But, by the end of the year, we should be crossing 5% of Ethereum, which would get us to over 300 million of annual staking rewards. Which, think about it this way, on our stakings only, we're making a million dollars a day.
On our cash position, we're making roughly $45 million a year. So, Bitmain generates close to 1.3 million dollars a day, and we're earning that for you as a shareholder. So, you don't have to worry about this company in terms of are we in trouble? You just have to wait for Ethereum's price to recover.
But, in the meantime, we're very profitable. And of course, let's say Ethereum's price recovers to 12,000, which we think is a really reasonable target, our staking yield just on our current Ethereum holdings will hit $2 billion. Um and again, uh that's $2 billion without any debt, without having to do anything, but again, hold our Ethereum.
And you're wondering, how did we get so much or how did we outperform Ethereum? The reason is is because we're increasing how much Ethereum per share that you have. And that's why we've been outperforming Ethereum itself. So, from the inception of Bitmain to now, for you as a shareholder, we've increased your Ethereum per share by 10 times.
And that's why you're going to outperform Ethereum holding Bitmain stock because every month we're increasing how much Ethereum you have per share. He specifically points to Ethereum as an asset that could be nearing a turning point. After underperforming and enduring a painful downturn, it may now be positioned for recovery.
And here's why that matters. Ethereum isn't just a cryptocurrency, it's an ecosystem powering smart contracts, decentralized apps, and a growing digital economy. If crypto sentiment improves, Ethereum could benefit disproportionately, especially if institutional interest continues to grow. So, what's the big takeaway?
We're in a moment where fear dominates the narrative. High oil prices, global tension, slowing growth, but beneath that surface, capital is quietly repositioning. Investors are searching for growth.
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