저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프-시진핑 협상에서 미국이 대두·희토류 등 실익을 얻어 우위에 섰다고 평가. 중국은 기술 자립과 EV 경쟁력으로 재평가 가능성이 있으나 대외 우호 기조 전환이 전제. AI 관련주는 거품이 커 30~40% 조정 가능성을 언급하지만 시기는 예측 불가. 신흥국 중 말레이시아·태국·대만·한국·인도가 공급망 재편 수혜. 달러는 Fed 인하 속도 둔화 속 강세 흐름 전망. 인도는 관료주의가 해외자금 유입의 걸림돌이라 지적. 한국은 매력 높은 시장 중 하나로 꼽았으나 최근 급락 중.
다듬은 글
(Subtitles may contain inaccuracies) We just heard from the Deputy Prime Minister of Malaysia how Malaysia is navigating both the US and China. I'm just wondering, when you take a look at the trade deals that have been, you know, been negotiated in this part of the world, can you see who are the potential winners and losers so far?
Well, so far, I think the U.S. has been a winner to a great extent, because if you notice the meeting that Xi had with Trump, Trump came out ahead in the sense he walked away with what he wanted. That was soybean exports to China. You know, the American farmers are very important to elections. So that was one thing.
And of course, the rare earths are released by China. That's another thing. So a number of things happened between Xi and Trump, which put the U.S. in a much better position. And, of course, as you know, Trump's visit to Southeast Asia was also very, very, very good. And then most important of all, his trip to Japan put China in, I would say, a pretty bad position.
So a lot of things are happening. I think most important thing that is that the changes within the CCP, the Communist Party of China, now is making a big shift. I believe it's going to be a much friendlier orientation and orientation, which is going to be much more open, which makes me more bullish on the Chinese market.
So on balance, the US probably has come into a better position, but that doesn't mean the Chinese are going to be weak in terms of trade and that sort of thing. So China's become more attractive. How would you be playing this market now? It does seem like, you know, there's greater appetite for Chinese assets at this point in time.
What's attractive, Mark? Well, the technology is very, very important in China and is getting better and better. As you know, China has embarked on a program to be self-sufficient in chips and in many other areas of technology. And that is going to be very critical for investors like ourselves. So we're going to be looking at companies that have a leg up on the US and Europe in technology.
And as you know, if you look at the EV market in China, it's been incredible. I mean, you drive in a Chinese vehicle and it's better than a Rolls Royce. And I had the experience recently driving in a Rolls Royce, and then I got into a BYD and the ride was better. So you're you're in a situation now in China where the technology is getting better and better and they're moving up the technology stairs.
Is there a convincing reversal in sentiment when it comes to investor sentiment in China? You know, it wasn't that long ago when China was actually an uninvestible mark. I mean, is this the catalyst? Yes, I think it is a catalyst. It's not going to happen overnight. But you can see that the Chinese market overall has been outperforming, outperforming, surprisingly, India.
You know, I've been a big supporter of Indian growth and now China is outperforming India. So that and in fact, if you look at the recent numbers, the Chinese market overall is outperforming the US market. So there's no question that we're now in a different era. It's going to take time for people to adjust, for investors to invest, to adjust.
But a lot of people are still down on China, but I think that's going to change going forward if the current trends continue. So we can expect a longer time rerating of China. So. Right. I mean, and if that is the case, what time period are you looking at, looking at this year and next year, you're going to see a rerating of China.
I mean, this is all based on the assumption that the current trends, the political trends within China continue, where the hardline wolf warrior kind of approach in China goes away and the Communist Party now is saying, look, we've got to make it much easier to deal with the US, we've got to be more friendly with the US, and that's going to change many, many things.
Right? What's the biggest risk for China? Mark? I mean, you know, investor sentiment changes with the headlines. That's how quickly they change. Yeah, that's right. The big risk, of course, is if the Wolf warrior stance that Xi has been promoting from the beginning of his term comes back. If that happens, then it's another game.
But I don't think so. I think the Communist Party in the latest plenumrealize that they've got to be friendly to the US, they've got to mend the relationship. And it's really interesting that in the meetings with Xi and Trump, Taiwan was not mentioned once, which is quite critical. That says a lot about relationship between the two countries.
I want to pull back and go back to what you were talking about, the US, that the US is the winner. Yet when you take a look at the market reaction right now, we've seen that sell off. How are you making sense of that sell off? Is it just a matter of removing some of the froth, especially in the AI space?
Of course, if you look at the AI space, it's a lot of froth. And we expect there to be a big correction in these companies that are emphasizing AI and spending trillions of dollars in AI improvements and infrastructure. There's got to be a correction because some of the numbers are just out of sight.
So that is going to happen going forward, but that doesn't mean that AI is going to disappear. AI is so critical, but I think some of the infrastructure spending and other spending on AI. is probably excessive, and that will be, there'll be a pullback on that. What's a big pullback? What's a big correction?
Some on Wall Street say, you know, more than 10%. But why does, 10%, when you have risen more than 80? Yeah, no, I mean, when I look at a correction, I look at 30%, down 30, 40%. That will happen, but it will be short lived. I mean, that's the wonderful thing about these bear markets. The bear markets are much shorter in duration than the bull markets.
And that's the reason why long term investors, if they hang in there, tend to do fine. But I think we've got to be ready for a big pullback. When it's going to happen? Nobody knows. Currently, everybody is euphoric. Everybody's happy. There are a few naysayers. But generally speaking, we've got to be prepared for a pullback.
And you buy the dip. Mark, if you believe that the long term trend is still higher. Good. Definitely. I mean, I'd love to see a pullback of 30, 40%, I would be in there with both arms and legs. We'd be buying a lot. You know, when you see this pullback in stocks, what is the value case for EMS? How how do they play against each other, Mark?
Well, the good news with the is because of the trade policies by the US, many of these countries are going to be producing the things they're producing and exporting, the things that China has been producing and exporting. So if you look at Southeast Asia, for example, I think Malaysia is going to benefit from that.
Thailand will benefit ... Taiwan will continue to do very well. Korea will do well. So this is a very, very critical development. And of course, India is developing an entire hardware industry for computers and all kinds of electronics. So I believe that this change is going to have a beneficial effect.
Now, that doesn't mean that China loses out. China is moving up the scale. They're getting rid of the low technology kinds of industries and moving up the technology scale. And they will, of course, be benefiting from that as well. You know, we've been talking about how we will see a rotation back to EM, but we've not seen a real rotation back.
You know what capital is? What's really needed for us to see that? Well, if you look at the ... you'll see that it's going very, very well, outperforming the US market, at least in the short term. And the reason for that is China. China represents such a big part of the index, but I believe India will come back and of course these two powerhouses will really look, make emerging markets look very good.
Of course, that was swash over to other emerging markets. But if you look at the rest of Asia, there are many markets that are doing quite well and Malaysia looks good. You can notice that the Malaysian ringgit is getting stronger against the US dollar. The Thai baht looks pretty good. Of course, the other currencies are weakening against the US dollar, but not by very much.
The trend so far, though, is dollar resilience. Right. I mean, the Fed is not cutting as much as people thought it would. How how might that impact on on the EMs? Well, a stronger US dollar is great for EM because they can then export and earn more dollars. So I would say that a very positive development for EMs.
But you must remember if you look at the US dollar index, it's up now after having come down substantially. It's now just beginning to churn. You begin to see the index moving up and it's got a long way to go. It's going to be getting stronger and stronger. You see the Fed policy of strengthening the balance of payments of the US and of course, all of these tariff income tax, income by the US, the US is earning now is going to have a big impact on the confidence of the US dollar and the US economy in general.
So this trend has just begun and hopefully during Trump's administration it will continue going forward. There's also diverging rate cycles. Right. We talk about how the Fed is quite resistant, but when it comes to Asian central banks have been more than willing to cut rates. That would work in ... No.
Of course. Yeah. I mean, they take the lead from the Fed, of course, and all these countries. As the Fed comes down with interest rates, they be lowering their own rates and that would be very good for the economies. So we're in a very nice period. But when you look at the height of the US market, you get a little nosebleed because we've moved up an awful lot.
But I think emerging markets will follow. You talked earlier about India, how India will be, you know, an emerging market driver. How do you make sense of, you know, the attractiveness of the market, the resilience of the economy, GDP in excess of six and a half percent, yet it has a currency that is amongst the weakest in the Asia region.
What is that reflecting, Mark? I mean, is it actually reflecting fundamentals or not? I think the problem with India is that despite the fact that it's got this enormous domestic market, the fact that they're moving very fast up the technology ladder. The problem is the bureaucracy. Putting money into India is a terrible, terrible process.
It takes months and months for us to get money into India. We've been in one of our funds that we've been working for nine months to get approvals. So this is a big, big problem for India. The Indian bureaucracy is really killing the Indian markets' ability to absorb more and more foreign investment.
Many foreign investors want to get in to India, but they have been prevented by this incredible bureaucracy. So the degree to which they're able to correct that will really be very meaningful in terms of what happens in India. And of course, we're not only talking about dollars going in. We're talking about investments going in.
We're talking about technology going in, etc., etc.. So this is the big, big challenge that India now has. So for India to be supported, for the Indian market to be supported longer term, you have to address the issue of bureaucracy. But shorter term, would earnings be the driver? Would earnings be holding up Indian stocks, you think?
Well, it has. I mean, the Indian market companies have done very well, but they reached a peak where further growth was not possible. And that's the reason why the market corrected. And what is needed, as I mentioned, is more and more money coming in to the market, which, I'm not only talking about the equity market, I'm talking about direct investment generally, companies coming in and investing.
And by the way, part of this is China. India has to invite and welcome Chinese investment. Now, that may seem strange because of their fraught political relationship over a number of years, but generally speaking, China can contribute the kind of technology and manufacturing expertise that India can use to export all over the world.
So this is, and, of course, China likes to do that because if they can't export to the US, they'd love to be able to establish a factory in India and then export to the US. So I think we're in a situation now where they have to do that. How do you play the Indian market? We often talk about how it is a consumption play, right?
This is a billion people, but they are opinions out there saying that, you know, the Indians will probably get old before they get rich because, you know, they're struggling with job creation and so on, so forth. How do you play best the Indian market? I would say the way to play it is looking at the hardware technology.
In other words, as you know, India has been an incredible producer of software. They've been exporting software all over the world. You have companies like Tata in process. They're doing an incredible job globally exporting. Now they have to get into exporting of hardware, computer hardware. And that's the reason why this business culture is, allowing foreign investment to come in and making it easier for investment to come in, is very critical.
You know, before software is a problem because you don't need an export permit to export software. But for hardware, it's a different story. Mark, I just want to pivot somewhat to another emerging market, Korea. There was a lot of euphoria, right? I mean, a lot of money was being pumped into the Korean market, but it's also among the biggest losers with the sell off.
How attractive is Korea to you? Korea is one of the most interesting of the markets right now for us. Next to Taiwan, I think Korea ranks pretty high. So we're looking at a number of companies in Korea because the Korean technology has really done very well. And in certain areas, interestingly enough, health care, cosmetics, that sort of thing.
Koreans are doing very well. But if you take a look what's happening right now, the sell off and I mean, Korea is getting hit really badly. So yeah, of course, ... Yeah. Everybody will be hit with that. There's no question about that. But it doesn't mean it is going away. They will still be developing and also be using a ....
What's interesting currently is how retail investors are driving the markets. We're not seeing that just in Korea, but in India and even in the US for that matter. Do you think this is a healthy trend going forward? Because should there be a selloff, the correction of 30%, for instance, like what do you anticipate later on that that could be damaging for for these investors?
Well, of course, you've got to look at the US market because US represents about 70% of total equity investing around the world. And one of the developments that we've noticed is that the US does not reflect necessarily the US economy but the global economy, because more and more of these companies, you look at Apple, you look at Amazon, you look at any of these companies, they're global companies, they're in emerging markets.
And a lot of their growth in terms of sales and in terms of supply chain have been emerging market by supply chain and sales growth. So this is you got to watch the US market because if the US market goes down then everybody will get hit.
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