Fundstrat's Tom Lee: We're near the end stages of the AI selloff

요약 보기

AI 매도는 막바지이며 AI 발견과 생산성 개선이 계속돼 버블보다는 건전한 조정이라는 주장. 자금 조달 우려는 과장되었고 AI 투자액(30조달러)은 인터넷 인프라 수준으로 감당 가능하다고 봄. 금리는 5% 아래로 내려왔고 연준이 완화로 돌아설 수 있어 기술주 바닥 형성 중. 반도체·메모리·엔비디아·빅7을 매수 대상으로 언급하고 소프트웨어와 암호화폐, 경기순환주에도 강세 견해. 다만 1997년 시스코 사례처럼 큰 폭 조정 가능성도 언급.

다듬은 글

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01. Well, congratulations again. Another market review. The Nasdaq, as you know, is falling. The Dow is now down more than 6% from its all-time high set earlier this month. Our next guest sees opportunity in this sale. I'm joined by Tom Lee from Fundstrat. He is also a CNBC contributor. Nice to see you again .

02. You say that concerns about AI are preventing it from becoming a " bubble." Some may argue that these concerns only “ burst” what has already become a “bubble.” God, I know there will be two sides to this discussion . But the reason I say that concerns about AI are preventing a " bubble" is because we continue to see amazing discoveries made by AI.

03. I mean, whether it's muses or agents or maybe two weeks ago OpenAI solved 770 math problems. This is not the end or late cycle for AI discoveries and even for productivity improvements. So, as long as we see progress there, every dollar of capital raised for AI is generating a return. I think it's actually really great that debt markets are, to some extent, curbing the uncontrolled speculative boom in AI.

04. So, I think this is actually a very healthy correction. So you're focused more on the derivative effects, I would say, rather than the cost issues, the financing, the capital shortage, all of that together? Yes, I mean, unfortunately, AI really does require a lot of money. We did a report a few weeks ago that shows that if AI spends $30 trillion over the next 25 years, then, first of all, there is plenty of investment money because the interest income of US households is about $7 trillion a year.

05. So, you know, a trillion of this could be financed just by the interest income that Americans receive . But the development of the mobile network cost about 25 trillion, and the roads cost 25 trillion. I believe that AI is probably a more important infrastructure building than mobile communications, and the amounts are about the same.

06. So I don't think there's too much money being invested in AI today. Would you buy during this sale already? Yes. I think we're in the final stages of the sell-off because shorting the technology sector has become a consensus decision, and I think the bond yields that have been so troubling the markets, as you know, have receded .

07. So, you have two factors that were previously obstacles: the Fed , which was quite hawkish, is now potentially changing course to be dovish. And interest rates, which were approaching 5% when everyone feared 6%, are now below 5% again. I think the only thing we have right now is that the debt markets are closed to some extent, and of course, the uncertainty because of the war.

08. So, if you said "yes, I would buy that," where exactly would you buy it? Would you stick with just these biggest AI-related stocks on the market? Yes, Scott, I think AI, memory bottlenecks, Nvidia, and the Big Seven—they're selling off right now because they're easy to short, and of course people are worried about the credit situation.

09. I think they're bottoming out, but I also like the software and I think cryptocurrency is pretty good right now. I'm pretty bullish on the whole broad cyclical market, and as you know, the financial sector hasn't been growing, but rates are falling. So I think there are a lot of opportunities . I see this as a compressed spring, because the fundamentals remain stable.

10. Wow, I mean, if you look at, for example, the semiconductor index or the DRAM ETF, we're showing it right there. There is so much destruction in this trade. I'm just wondering what story this graph will tell us in the coming weeks, if not months. Scott, I think this just shows how fierce the fight around AI is today.

11. But don't forget that in 1997, 3 years after the launch of the public internet and browsers, Cisco, which was the largest stock at the time, suffered a 50% drop. Partly because Alan Greenspan talked about irrational exuberance and then hinted at preemptive rate hikes, which is very similar to today's situation .

12. Cisco went through a 50% correction, fell to five, and a year later was worth 18. I think the situation is similar. You know, ChatGPT is actually approaching its third anniversary. I think we're still at such an early stage in AI development that people's concerns are understandable. Many have made money, and now there is also a massive profit-taking.