Having the bond market regulate the AI trade is a big positive, says Ed Yardeni

요약 보기

AI 관련 채권시장이 신용 리스크를 제대로 반영하기 시작한 것은 긍정적이며 자본배분을 효율화하고 버블 위험을 줄인다고 봄. 금리가 5%로 오르고 유가가 100달러대로 복귀해 Fed가 1~2회 추가 인상할 가능성을 언급하며 밸류에이션 압박을 인정. 다만 실적 전망(2026년 주당 425달러, 2028년 약 500달러)은 매우 강하다고 평가. S&P500 목표는 연말 7,900 하향 후 내년 중반 8,400, 10년 말 10,000 가능성 제시. 클라우드 매출과 수주잔고를 주시하며 FEMO(강한 실적 모멘텀)를 강조.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. In his final note, our next guest notes that “ bond vigilantes” are now doing a good job of regulating and allocating capital in the AI ​​ecosystem. Ed Yardeni himself came to explain this. He is the president of Yardeni Research. Come on, teach me. What are you talking about? Well, the bond market is finally paying attention to the credit quality of AI assets, and that's a good thing.

02. I mean , it's good when the bond market gets ahead of the credit rating agencies and realistically assesses risks. So if that's the case, then capital allocation should become more efficient, and more questionable borrowers will have to pay significantly more, which could slow them down, and I think regulating the AI bond market is a big plus.

03. You mean what happened last week with CoreWeave and then spread to many other companies. You know, the bond market woke up and realized that all these loans, just because they're AI-related, are not AAA-rated, quite the opposite. So, there are people who worry that this could stop the development of AI.

04. You say that this might prevent a collapse. Yeah, I don't even know what we expect now. That's right. You know, for a while everyone was worried that we were building too fast, and now the market is going to regulate it. I think this is positive for the economy because it reduces the risk of a " bubble".

05. I think in the last few weeks we've kind of removed the 1999-2000 analogy of this bubble, and I think in the last week or so we've really shown a path that's sustainable in terms of access to credit for AI companies. Look, there are people who looked at this and said, "Oh my, this is bad news because now people are panicking." Do you think extending this to other companies outside of the primary ones was unwarranted?

06. Do you think it happened because suddenly people looked at Anthropic's metrics and thought, "Wow, the growth rate is slowing down pretty quickly." But yes, I already have " AI fatigue". I mean, every day we get headlines that change everyone's mind. Weren't we all worried a few weeks ago that this would kill 10% of the world's population?

07. And now we worry that credit conditions will be too tight for AI, and we will lose our competitive advantage . But look, I think there may be exaggerations here, and it's quite possible that a company like Coreweave, as the head of Nvidia says, is a completely legal business, and there's no reason to worry.

08. So I think the market will figure it all out. You are not one to comfort yourself with illusions, although you are quite optimistic about where things are heading. I assume you are tracking certain metrics quite closely. Which ones exactly? For the economy? For AI in particular, and then for the economy in general.

09. I think during the reporting season we want to see cloud revenue and really high growth rates. I mean, Gartner said that the revenue these companies have to generate is simply unrealistic to cover all these costs. But again , this is another reason to be happy about what the bond market is doing, it's a positive development.

10. But yes, cloud computing revenues, as well as order backlog. You mean Amazon, Meta, from... That's where the money is to really fund all of this. If it were n't for that, there would be a lot of free cash flow, but now a significant portion of it is going to finance these data centers? What do you think about your forecast, the reduced target of 7,900 for the end of the year?

11. Do you think we will still look at earnings and feel pretty confident? Well, in mid- September, you know, the bond market started moving up to 5%. The price of oil has returned to the 100 mark. It looks like we are in for higher oil prices for a longer period of time, which means more stable inflation.

12. I think the Fed will raise rates two more times, if not by the end of the year, then at the beginning of next year. And so I believe that this significantly affects the valuation multiplier. The earnings outlook is phenomenally strong. We expected $425 per share for the S &P 500 next year. Industry analysts have already reached this prediction.

13. And what industry analysts are saying now for 2028 is about $500 per share. We thought that $500 per share would be around 2030. So, the good news is still mostly about earnings . The uncertainty lies in the valuation. I think 8,400 by the middle of next year is more realistic than by the end of this one.

14. But we could have a very strong rally at the end of the year and still be looking at 10,000 by the end of the decade. What will help us reach 8400 by the middle of next year? Is it simply higher returns, or is there also a valuation factor added to that? inspired to coin the acronym FEMO, Fabulous Earnings Momentum, to distinguish it from FOMO.

15. FOMO is actually more of an evaluation indicator. This, you know, is the fear of lost profit. There is no great fear of losing something against the backdrop of impressive profits. It seems to me that investors are almost shocked by the numbers that analysts are publishing . But the reason for this is that companies are showing very solid profits. And, by the way, not only AI companies.