저자: AustinLieberman · 외국인
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결론: 하워드 막스의 'See Change' 메모를 인용하며 40년간 이어진 금리 하락기가 끝나 투자 환경이 근본적으로 바뀌었다고 경고하되, 장기 투자 원칙은 유지하라는 메시지. 막스가 본 구조적 변화: 1970년 위험-수익 사고 전환, 1980년대 볼커 연준의 고금리 이후 40년 금리 하락기가 핵심 순풍이었으나 이제 종료. 2009~2021년 초저금리 시기는 낙관과 낮은 위험 회피가 지배했음. 현재 환경: 기준금리는 과거 0~2%보다 2~4%로 높아질 가능성. 연준은 긴축, 인플레이션은 40년 만의 고점, 경기침체 가능성 높음. 신용상품으로도 괜찮은 수익을 얻을 수 있어 위험자산 의존도가 낮아짐. 막스 비교표 요지: 2009~21년 완화적 연준·낮은 인플레·낙관 vs 현재 긴축·고인플레·침체 우려·신중한 매수자. 밸류에이션: S&P 500 PER은 현재 약 19로 20년 평균 19.6과 비슷해 공포가 충분히 가격에 반영되지 않음. 2009년 PER 15 수준까지 가면 현재 대비 약 20~25% 하락 가능성 언급. 대응 원칙: 지출 통제, 저축 확대, 본업 유지, 레버리지·고위험 YOLO 매매 자제. 시장 타이밍 매도는 하지 않고 장기 투자 계획을 고수. 역사적 수익: S&P 500 기준 1926년 100달러는 인플레 조정 시 약 6만 2천 배 이상 증가 가능(배당 포함 약 10%/년 가정 등). 1926~1976년 50년 기간도 배당 포함 시 큰 복리 효과. 적립식 투자 강조. 출연자 전망: 단기적으로 우려되지만 장기 보유 유지. 특정 자산 가격 방향은 제시하지 않음.
다듬은 글
all right everybody legendary investor Howard marks and multi-billionaire Howard marks just released a new letter and it's not good it's not good for his opinion on the stock market and what he thinks is going to happen with interest rates and inflation and a recession coming so I want to cover this letter he's a very respected investor I want to cover how it might impact the stock market I want to cover what he just said is literally a change that's happening in the stock market that he's only seen once or twice in his 40 or 50 year investing career so if you want to find this it's a memo called see change and it is on oak trees website if you just Google Oak Creek blog you'll find it but this is a good summary end of 40-year era of falling interest rates is crucial see change for investors from Howard marks look how concerned he is he is concerned and so here's the biggest thing right this 40-year era of falling interest rates is over forcing investors to throw out a Playbook that worked well particularly over the past decade or so which is what Howard marks just outlined in a memo to his clients and the world so there's just a lot of unknown right now this bottoming out of interest rates he says marks a sea change for investors which isn't a term that he uses lightly He's only seen three of these in more than half a century of investing first one was in 1970 as investors adopted a risk versus return mindset when it comes to investing second sea change came after the Federal Reserve under Paul volcker in the early 1980s hyped interest rates to eye watering levels in the effort to ring out inflation ushering in Era of falling interest rates that has since come to an end the Tailwind that has been provided by Falling interest rates is hard to overstate he says they were responsible for a significant chunk of all the money investors made over the last four decades wow that's terrifying when you think about the future more recently the period between the end of the global financial crisis in 2009 and the onset of the cover pandemic in 2020 was marked by ultra low interest rates again low interest rates low interest rates that's the common theme here and that theme is changing for many investors period from 2009 to 21 with the exception of a few months of 2020 saw optimism Prevail and kept worries to a minimum Mark said while low inflation allowed Central Bankers to maintain easy monetary policy these risk-free rate at zero fear of loss absent and people eager to make risky Investments it was a frustrating period for lenders and bargain hunters that has since aggressively raised interest rates in response to the biggest inflation surge in four decades stocks have tumbled in 2020 S P 500 down 15 year-to-date inflation and interest rates are likely to remain the main considerations for the investing environment over the next several years while the base interest rate is more likely to average two to four percent instead of zero to two percent the bottom line is that conditions at this moment are overwhelmingly different from and most less favorable than those seen in the aftermath of the financial crisis gone from the low return world of 2009 to 21 to a full return world and it may become more so in the near term investors can now potentially get solid returns from credit instruments meaning they no longer have to rely as heavily on riskier investments to achieve their overall return targets that means much better prospects for lenders and bargain hunters importantly if you grant that the environment is and may continue to be very different from what it was over the last 13 years and most of the last 40 years should follow that the investment strategies that worked best over those periods may not be the ones that outperform in the years ahead okay and here's a little chart that Marx has in this memo that talks about the differences between you know 2009 to 21 and then today so the Fed was highly stimulative versus tightening today inflation was dormant 40-year high today economic Outlook was positive a recession is likely today likelihood of distress is minimal it's rising a mood was optimistic now it's guarded buyers were eager now they're hesitant holders complacent today they're uncertain and so basically all this stuff just shows like the Market's really scared today now the thing is is you would think that when everyone's scared this would be the time to invest right but the problem is is that if we look at the p e ratio the average p e ratio this is just of the S P 500 over the last 20 years you can see the average the normal p e ratio is 19.6 and we're sitting in a blended price earnings ratio of right about 19 right now so the market isn't extremely discounted to reflect all of that fear in in the the bad stuff that's really expected to happen and so you would think by all of those bad things in the chart that the market was like way cheap well it did get down you know much cheaper down to a PE of 17 but it's it's since rallied back a little bit and who knows it might drop again right you know after 2009 it traded at down to a p e of 15.
and so if did that we're talking about a 20 to 25 percent drop from levels today if it were to go down to PE as low as in 2009. even in 2012 at one point it was trading at down at a PE of 15. and so the question is like what do we make of this and what do we do and I think first and foremost for most people it means to control our spending right now and cut back on things that we don't need get smarter with our money try to save more of our money versus spend it try to do the best job we can at our job so we don't lose the most important thing to most of our livelihoods which is our income if we can control that we might get to a point where we can't control that and there's just widespread job losses hopefully that doesn't happen but those are the types of things we should be doing right now I'm not selling out of all my stocks and trying to time the market that's that's not what I'm trying to do but I'm certainly not taking margin loans and risk and doing crazy YOLO trades and and just being ridiculous right like let's manage our finances let's manage our health let's manage our energy let's do the best we can at our job and let's invest for the long term here's what I want to leave you with after all of this negativity right this is what a hundred dollars invested in the S P 500 from 1926 to I believe today or you know this week's prices 100 in 1926 has turned into one million dollars over that 100 year period basically so you can see S P 500 started at 12.65 back in 1926 the ending value was 3770 that is a 29 000 change in price for about six percent per year if you include dividends that is a 1 million percent change that's insane 29 000 versus one million percent if you add dividends and then just four percent a year so including David injury at 10 per year if you adjust that for inflation you're up to 6.8 eight percent per year so that's how much you've made inflation adjusted for a gain of sixty two thousand percent and so nominal meaning uh not inflation adjusted that hundred dollars is worth one million dollars if you just added 100 never did anything else but with adjusting for inflation that hundred dollars is still worth sixty two thousand six hundred and eighty five dollars he talked about how great the last you know decade or so has been or two decades has been right but let's just look at 50 years from 1926 to 1976 right 100 still turns into eight thousand five hundred and thirty four dollars and we'll just look at the percentages right um not including dividends four percent per year if you include dividends nine percent per year and so your final amount nominal again not just for inflation that hundred dollars turned into eight thousand five hundred thirty four dollars over fifty years versus inflation adjusted your 100 turns into two thousand six hundred fifty four dollars over 50 years now imagine if you were investing every single month and uh 100 bucks a month five hundred dollars a month whatever you're gonna do even better than that and so the great news is if your timeline is long enough and you're a long-term investor things tend to work out right who knows what's going to happen in the short term I don't know but I know that I don't want to miss the next 10 15 and 20 years investing in the stock market and if I get you know try to macro time and time the market then I will miss it because I'll never feel comfortable buying okay so um that's what I'm going to do I'm just going to continue sticking to the plan and being a long-term investor but I know it's worrying right now and I know it's scary and there's a lot of fear out there so just do me a favor let me know in the comments uh just how you're feeling you're feeling a little worried are you feeling good are you you feeling like you're getting to make some good purchases and for long-term Investments and if you appreciate this content you can support me for free by liking the video and subscribing to the channel have a great day
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