저자: AustinLieberman · 외국인
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결론: 유튜버는 드러켄밀러의 '향후 10년간 시장 평탄~하락' 전망을 소개하며, 본인은 그래도 장기 적립 투자를 지속하고 기업 실적이 유지되면 장기적으로 보상받을 것이라고 본다. 드러켄밀러 전망: 2022년 10월 20일 발언으로, 과거 30년간의 대규모 부양책, 큰 정부, 높은 인플레이션, 우크라이나 전쟁 등을 근거로 향후 10년간 주식시장이 중립이거나 하락할 수 있다고 봤다. 2023년 경기침체를 예상했다. 포트폴리오 운용: 유튜버는 100만 달러 포트폴리오를 공개 운용 중이며, 현재 약 10만 3천 달러(투입원금 약 11만 9천 달러)다. 2022년 2월 15일부터 하락장에서 공격적으로 적립 중이며, 평탄하거나 하락하는 시장이 장기 투자자에게 유리할 수 있다고 본다. 레버리지(마진)는 쓰지 않고 생활비를 줄여 꾸준히 투자할 여력을 만드는 것이 전략이다. 테슬라: 모닝스타 기준 공정가치 250달러, 3스타(적정가치 근처)로 평가. 3분기 실적은 매출 기록, 공장 마진 개선이 확인됐고 실적 발표 후 시간외 약 5% 하락. 유튜버는 실적 훼손이 없어 투자 논리가 유지된다고 평가. 과거 2014~2019년 주가가 횡보했음에도 이후 큰 상승을 언급. 대만 반도체(TSMC): 모닝스타는 5스타, 공정가치 133달러 대비 대폭 저평가로 봄(현재 약 63달러). 2023~2024년 고성능 컴퓨팅 수요 둔화, 중국 제재, 경기침체 가능성을 반영해 공정가치를 하향했으나 장기 시장 성장성은 유지된다고 판단. 재고일수 감소와 자본지출 축소를 주가 바닥 신호로 해석. 유튜버도 최근 편입했다고 밝힘. 엔비디아: 2007~2015년 약 -1%, 이후 주가가 고점 대비 70~80% 하락한 상태. 장기 보유 또는 꾸준한 적립 시 큰 수익이 가능했다는 사례로 제시. 코스트코: 2007년 고점 매수 후 2024년 전후 보유 시 연 15% 수준 수익, 배당 포함 큰 수익이라는 사례로 제시. 장기 보유의 중요성 강조. 포트폴리오 구성 및 리스크: 주로 엔터프라이즈 소프트웨어 등 성장주(스노우플레이크, 크라우드스트라이크, 메타, 클라우드플레어, 에어비앤비, 대만반도체 등)를 보유. 유튜버는 이들이 과거 닷컴 기업과 달리 실제 매출·이익·순달러유지율 등이 있는 기업이라 판단. 다만 과거 과열 매수 실수를 인정. 향후 일정: 메타(10/26), 쇼피파이(10/27) 실적 발표 예정이며 모닝스타 의견도 함께 다루겠다고 함. 장기적으로 기업 실행력이 유지되는 한 보유·추가매수 의견 유지. 출연자 전망: 드러켄밀러는 시장 평탄~하락 가능성을 제시했고, 유튜버는 단기 하락에 대비해 장기 적립과 보유를 지속하겠다는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
the Dow Jones could be flat for the next 10 years that's what Stanley druckenmiller the legendary investor just said he is generally bearish on the market so that's something to consider but he's a legendary investor and has essentially nailed this thing the whole time he was just in a conference and this aired on October 20th 2022 and essentially said that uh because of the all the stimulus that has happened in the prior 30 years and uh the situation we have now with um inflation and big government and then there's everything going on with Ukraine there's possibilities of issues with all of this stuff all of these issues he sees a scenario where the stock market could be neutral or lower for the next 10 years so I'm going to share my thoughts on that also two companies in the portfolio Tesla and Taiwan semi have reported earnings over the last week we have meta and Shopify that report earnings next week so I'll cover those and if you're new here here I am Austin I'm building a one million dollar portfolio right here transparently on YouTube we're at a hundred and three thousand almost one hundred and three thousand two hundred dollars we are up about three thousand dollars on the week overall we have put in a hundred and nineteen thousand dollars we started on February 15 2022 so I've been investing heavily in this downturn and I was early right I was early on it but this is a long-term portfolio and I would actually prefer that the market is flat to down while I'm adding money to it especially early on because I think that over time and we see here I'm going to go through some examples of why I think a flat to down Market could be good for long-term investors if we can stay focused because there have been some incredible stocks and incredible gains made for investors that are able to hold or add over time in some of these great stocks we just looked at Tesla Nvidia and Costco that had long periods of time that were flat to down and then exploded eventually I'm going to talk about why that happens and why I think that you know drunken Miller might be right but I don't know what the Market's going to do next all I can control is my emotions and my strategy my personal finances and living below our means putting ourselves in a position to be able to invest for the long term that's the way I'm going to handle this type of situation because I don't have the data and the team and all the analysts that Stanley druckenmiller has to know when to go in the market when to go out of the market that's not my game and that's not a lot of people's game right so my Approach even if he is right and we enter some dark recessionary period which I'm not sure if we will or not we probably will most definitely be in a recession he thinks 2023 for sure my Approach is to just have a process that I can continue adding to the market regularly not use margin I'm not going out and buying big expensive things or going on crazy trips right now I think that's something that everyday people like you and me could be doing right now is just thinking about our finances and just being you know stricter with ourselves and because of all the unknowns out there and if this is a practice that's good to do anyways right and so for me I mean that means it sounds simple right but but like things as simple as having coffee at home instead of buying a six dollar coffee at Starbucks which yes doing that one time not gonna make a difference but the problem is is when people get in a habit of that and I've caught myself doing it before it's not just one day you go it's four or five times a week and then all of a sudden you're talking about uh a hundred hundred and fifty dollars on one thing per month potentially 150 bucks on you know Starbucks or food breakfast per month well if you're doing that for breakfast you're probably doing that in other areas too right so for me that's my approach to this whole situation manage my personal finances have it so I can be investing regularly and take advantage of a flat Market over the next 10 years if that happens worst case scenario because I'm not investing with money that I need in the next I talk about this all the time in the next three years or four years or even five years and so the further we extend our time Horizon the more likely it is that the market will recover and will do better and will pay off right even if there is a drop in the next year or two if we're buying that whole time and then five six years from now we might need some of this money that's invested well the Market's going to go up and down right and if we're constantly buying and buying at high levels and lower levels then we'll have money there to take out at least that's my Approach I would have money there to take out if I needed it six years from now or I have savings built up that I can pull from if the Market's not to it that's why this whole thing is a balance for for real people uh investing real money like of my own money like I am not it's different for professional investors right let's talk about earnings let's talk about Tesla and um this is morningstar's analysis right so I pay for their premium service this is not an advertisement but they do great coverage and so if you like this stuff if you want you know reliable coverage from a team of analysts that is you know relatively affordable then a service like this might help you be able to cover more stocks and own like cover the stocks that you own so you're not just listening to random people like me on YouTube or other people on YouTube you at least know you're getting you know analysis from people that actually know what they're talking about and my goal is to just share this and open up the world of investing and share what I'm doing to other people right so anyways they maintained a 250 Fair Value Estimate as Tesla's Q3 shows sequential margin Improvement and shares are slightly undervalued so they have them rated at three stars which just means it's fair valued right see all these stories that's so undervalued Tesla so overvalued I think and this is actually how I feel about I think it's right in between right like um the things that they are doing could be incredibly Innovative and they could be a much larger company in the future but there's a lot of risks right so anyways um they have it as a one star price it would be up to 437 that would be like extremely overvalued in their opinion uh but very undervalued five star would be down to 125.
they give them a narrow economic moat which I actually think it deserves a better rating than that because there's not a lot of companies that can do all of the things that Tesla can do with everything they have from their charging Network to the data that they have to these different lines of business and the r d and the the um production facilities that they have that gives them more than a narrow mode I would I would argue they give them a capital allocation rating of exemplary so they said uh we'll just cover a few things they saw a few surprises and the detailed results the company reported record deliveries early in the month and the vehicle volume growth was present in the company's Financial results as it generated record Revenue despite the continued ramp up of two new factories one in Austin and one in Berlin Germany company-wide operating margin improved sequentially versus the second quarter this is in line with our view that factories will become more profitable each quarter as production increases I agree with that and that just makes sense right a factory is going to be more profitable as production increases despite the signs of improvement in line with the strong long-term Outlook Shares are down five percent after hours with Outlook intact they view Tesla as slightly undervalued with the stock trading a little more than 15 below the Fair Value Estimate but in three-star territory we recommend investors wait for a larger margin of safety for considering an entry point there you go so that's Tesla there was no Shockers there um I'm happy with the results thesis is intact which is what I want if there's nothing broken about what they reported right that's the only thing that would make me consider selling Taiwan Sami so they actually have Taiwan semi-rated as five stars and very undervalued right now right so um I've talked about I've made a video about it I recently added Taiwan send me to the portfolio because I felt the same thing they say it's significantly undervalued at a 52 discount they say the fair value is 133 the last close is down to 63 with a wide economic mode and exemplary Capital allocation they cut the fair value estimate for Taiwan semi to U.S 133 per share as they bake in more conservative assumptions on a high performance Computing demand in 2023 2024 recession possibly coming they anticipate 23 demand to be affected by sluggish PC demand and rebalancing of Enterprise Computing operations in light of fresh us restrictions on doing business and Chinese customers that's another big thing nonetheless they believe it does not change a large adjustable market and they still view tsmc's shares as gross Lander valued their sequential decline in inventory days and management reducing capital expenditure by percent so look getting smarter about costs they foresee lower inventory dollars and cautious 23 capital expenditure budget as a sign of the stock bottoming gonna get to my portfolio in just a minute the full full company review but also want to talk about we've got meta coming up reporting earnings on 1026.
Shopify reporting earnings on 1027 I'll cover both of those as well as you know what firms like Morningstar say so you're not just listening to me but you're seeing you know other opinions as well and then here's the portfolio right so again in in my thoughts are I own companies that are growth companies right now they are mostly in Enterprise software I'm confident that overall these companies will continue to grow they have high margin they have recurring Revenue they serve a valuable purpose the enterprise software companies that I own to their customers they're they are not the same in my opinion as the 99.com era companies that were just internet companies that had no Revenue no value and everything was valued just on eyeballs on a website sure these stocks got way overvalued in 2021 in in previous but they are very real businesses and we can see things like net dollar retention rate where uh current customers are spending more every year metrics like that high gross margin recurring Revenue uh offering new product lines government spending with them those are the kind of indicators that show these are real businesses we want to buy them at the right prices which is mistakes I've made in the past everybody's made those mistakes but that doesn't mean that there are cells now that they're they're the stock price is so far down I think they're actually much more fairly valued their businesses continue to be strong they continue to outperform uh and beat expectations for the most part and I'm confident that they'll do well over the long term and I'm about to share three examples again Tesla Nvidia and Costco that yeah sure their stocks got overvalued for a while the stock price was stagnant but those who held and added and watched the execution and it maintained they maintained their execution investors were rewarded and that's what I think is going to happen with the companies I own but that's just my opinion so anyways here you go from largest position to smallest snowflake rocket lab crowdstrike dated dog meta gitlam the trade desk cloudflare Airbnb bill.com Taiwan semi Advance Auto Tesla Shopify mango database and mercado Libre that is my portfolio let me know what you think of it in the comments all right let's talk about this so a flat market for the next 10 years well sometimes flat markets can be great right if you're a Tesla investor from 2014 to 19 the stock was actually down three percent right so we are talking about a five-year period five and a half five years and three months where the stock went down right but then eventually the company keeps executing they keep recording more Revenue they keep improving on margins eventually things take off right and so I mean we saw how crazy it got but even before all the craziness that happened with covid if we just go to 2019 then still from 2013 to 19 when the shares were at uh split adjusted 28 dollars a share you still made 191 for 19 annualized that's a fantastic return and then if we go from you know there to today even after it's crazy you drop you're up 2 461 that is the reward for continuing to buy great companies that are executing well regardless of the stock price being flat or the overall Market being flat and all the fears and everything that goes on continuing to focus on owning great companies or just investing regularly over the long term another example is NVIDIA right from 2007 to 2015 you actually lost money to 2069 years over nine years you had a negative one percent Total return you bought right before the great financial crisis and over the next nine years you made nothing even to today if we go to today where the stock sits down like 70 or 80 percent from its highs if you bought and held over the last nine years or added regularly imagine how much better that would be when you're buying shares more shares down here you made 1218 over those 15 years for an average of 19 annually amazing returns Costco okay I talked about two crazy growth companies this is um not a growth company I mean it actually has been a Growth Company in the past but more seen as like a just a stable amazing dividend company if you owned it from 2004 to 2009 you made a total return of eight percent so 1.8 percent annualized but then if we go even right before the great financial crisis 2007 to 2009 so over those two years you lost 36 on that stock but then if you had bought right at the peak of 2007 and held to today you are up 670 percent for 15 annualized and you've gotten paid eight thousand ninety eight dollars in dividends on a ten thousand dollar investment so you've almost made a hundred percent on just dividends alone but then when you do the market value plus the dividend you've made a ten thousand dollar investment you've made seventy seven thousand dollars on that so it would currently be worth eighty seven thousand dollars if you started with ten thousand dollars drucken Miller might be right the market might be flat to down for the next 10 years I am investing in a way that I would be okay with that because I'm investing for the long term and eventually things would get better and catch up if you're invested in the right businesses
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