저자: PeterMorici·SteveBeeman · 외국인
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2016년 3월 워런 버핏의 주주서한 낙관론(미국 아이들이 부모보다 못살 것이라는 비관은 '완전히 틀렸다')을 두고 토론. 버핏의 낙관은 혁신·생산성 측면에서는 타당하나 청년 주거·부채 문제와 중소기업 창업 약화를 간과한다는 지적. 무역에서는 중국의 환율·통상 우위를 바로잡아야 한다는 주장과 제조업의 로봇화로 일자리가 일부 복귀할 것이란 전망이 오감. 경기 측면에서는 성장률 2.5% 안팎의 정체 국면이 지속되며 당장 침체는 아니라는 평가. 유가 하락을 미국 경제에 나쁘다고 보는 월가 반응은 잘못이라는 주장. 종목·자산별 직접적인 가격 전망 발언은 없음. 경기 전반은 2.5% 수준 저성장 지속, 침체 아님으로 평가. 출연자 중 Peter Morici는 경제 전망을 제시하고 Steve Beeman은 규제 완화 필요성을 강조. 사회자 발언은 제외.
다듬은 글
Warren Buffett is not a stupid man nor is he a careless man that's how one is described when one's net worth is upwards of sixty billion dollars when he speaks people listen markets can change in seconds so when he reached out this weekend to his investors and termed as dead wrong all the economic pessimism surrounding the 2016 presidential campaign you can imagine how it raised more than a few eyebrows and got people talking so let's assume for a moment yes we all know what that word means then Warren Buffett's on to something what does he know that others don't break open the wallet let's air this one out he is the former denizen of Wall Street veteran economist and author of the American Dream under fire Steve Beeman joined by the syndicated columnist veteran economist and professor of Business at the University of Maryland Peter Murray see gentlemen let's get to work and get right to what Warren Buffett said in his annual letter to shareholders this weekend he wrote in part Americans now believe that their children will not live as well as they themselves do that view is dead wrong that babies being born in America today are the luckiest crop in history Steve Beeman well who are we supposed to believe Warren Buffett should know exactly what he's talking about here or wait wait just a minute he happens to be a supporter of Hillary Clinton oh well maybe we need to bring that into the mix go ahead Steve well I'm let's not forget he was a supporter of Barack Obama so he's gonna certainly stand for those policies I don't think in every way he's wrong I think productivity and technology are changing rapidly and improving the quality of life I do think he's missing something though and that is if you look at small business development in the United States we're now I think its 12th in the world for forming small businesses that is not the recipe for economic growth like we've had in our past 230 years yes for the big business environment like you know Buffett where he can buy politicians and trade off these zero interest rates he's gonna do fine but when it comes to mom-and-pop who want to start their own company or start their new technology company regulation after regulation after regulation or stifling that kind of growth Peter what Steve said right there caught me when it comes down to mom-and-pop the people there who can't just go out and buy companies with billions of dollars is that the difference here where Warren just might be talking up both sides of his mouth here well it's part there's no doubt that the American innovation machine is live and well in Britain innovation continues long after the decline set in however the question is who will benefit from those innovations the Chinese or the Americans after all who makes the iPhone it's not Americans over and over again was seeing this happen also look outside young people can't afford to buy homes that mired in debt essentially the older folks have all the wealth in America and it's not transferring down the ladder the way it did in past generations instead young people is staying with their parents longer they can't take care of themselves so he's got a square that innovation machine with the objective conditions of young folks that's why Bernie's so popular but he's blinded to that because he has to be right he has to have Hillary when you know this is different than a stock pick when he picks wrong on a stock the market tells him when he picks wrong on a politician people suffer but it's not mr.
Buffett you made me think of something here you mentioned iPhone iPhones of course made in China that's just about everything is these days or at least a lot of phones are made in China a lot of our electronics comes from China and then we have a leading GOP candidate right now who has some trade policies that people say can't work won't work he's basically just blowing smoke at this point in your opinion what's the implication if Donald Trump does indeed become president on our trade policies with people like China and others where he says I'll get him to do whatever I want hell or high water you're asking me no I'm asking here got it the biggest implication of Trump winning is the establishment losing you have to understand that Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton have a lot invested in the status quo and that is these trade agreements you know the Bush family is become insanely wealthy by virtue of having the presidency even has the fortunes of ordinary Americans have declined my feeling is these policies can work I would point out this what he is advocating regarding China I have advocated for the last 10 years and so as liberal economists and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman there's a lot of people on the right and left that are saying it's time to take out the baseball back but the rusting L at the end go after them and make them change all of a sudden Peter making me think about my growing up in New York City streets a hundred years ago yet that last couple of words of it I was raised in the village we know all about what it what it's like you Steve all right up you waited on this your side of this well I think one of the issues is we're looking at 20th century economics in a 21st century economy the technology revolution that we are undergoing right now is changing all of this yes presently products are manufactured in China but I think you're gonna see a transition in that over the next 20 years where that manufacturing comes back to its local distribution point although it's run with robotics so I'm not sure bringing those jobs back is a it's a simplistic solution but I think that's where trumps headed with regard to you know treating China fairly there's no question they have gotten the upper hand in trade negotiations for 20-30 years with us and I think we need to step up and get the currencies under control and get China out of this plate play park where there when in the game because we failed to negotiate 30 seconds to both of you here Business Insider talks about financial markets and economic data telling two different stories one suggest an economy on the verge of recession another solid albeit slow growth with signs activity is about to completely roll over 30 seconds to you first Steve which one do you agree with well I it goes back to what you and I've talked about for two years on this program we have a bipolar economy on one hand it's trying to grow on the other hand there's so much structural damage it's not seeing the growth I think we're stuck in this malaise of two and a half ish type growth rates for a long time the Fed can't do much more there try with zero interest now negative interest the fact of the matter is we need to get this economy unregulated to let it loose Peter 30 seconds to you they say we stand by our original thesis something's got to give well financial markets are following the price of oil and for some strange reason financial markets that is the people on Wall Street seem to think that if the price of oil is low it's bad for America that's simply not the case was still a major importer and sooner or later Wall Street will come to its senses where the Wall Street should be pessimistic is by the progress of the economy and so far mr.
Beeman is right we're stuck at this two-and-a-half percent growth rate that's certainly not to the end of the world it is not a recession and the market should simply forget about the Savoy D Beeman Peter Marie C thanks for joining us to know yet Peter like I said thanks for giving me that thought process back to my days growing up in New York City gentlemen thank you very much what would you do if somebody asked you about support from the Ku Klux Klan better asked what would you expect your candidate for president to say that's coming up next and telling it like it is here on the hardline
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