저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 시프는 연준의 금리 인상이 실제로는 제한적이며 추가 양적완화(QE4)가 나올 가능성이 크고, 이는 달러 하락과 금·은 상승으로 이어질 것이라고 주장한다. 연준 정책 전망: 연준의 인상 시사는 연출일 뿐이며 실제로는 QE4가 더 가능성이 높다고 본다. 인상이 불가능한 이유는 경제가 금리 인상을 버틸 수 없는 상태이기 때문이다. 경제 상황: 미국 경제는 5~6년 전보다 훨씬 나빠졌고, 제로금리 정책으로 자원 배분이 왜곡되었다고 주장한다. 달러와 귀금속: 최근 달러 강세는 연준 긴축 기대에 기반하는데, 이 기대가 틀린 것으로 드러나면 달러가 크게 하락할 것이라고 본다. 금·은은 현재 가격이 낮게 형성되어 있으며, 투자자들이 깨닫게 되면 금·은 가격이 훨씬 높아질 것이라고 주장한다. 재정 문제: 미국의 부채는 제로금리에서만 감당 가능하며, 금리가 오르면 그리스처럼 파산 상태가 드러날 것이라고 경고한다. 리스크: 금리 인상 시 시장 전반의 혼란이 발생하고, 정책 실패로 인한 위기가 불가피하다는 입장이다. 출연자 전망: 사회자들은 시프의 견해에 동의하며 달러 가치 하락 가능성을 언급했다.
다듬은 글
alongside Miranda Khan JD Hayworth back with you on America's Forum with news of the fed the Federal Reserve expected to lay the groundwork today for the first interest rate hike in nearly a decade the central bank is expected to toss out a pledge to remain patient before hiking interest rates this is news of great interest joining us now to talk about it Peter Schiff the CEO of europacific capital he joins us via Skype from Connecticut and hanging in from Newsmax New York our friend Betsy McCoy so the word patient apparently is being eliminated from the fed's Lexicon Peter your take on what might happen well nothing is going to happen in reality the markets might react to this but this is simply the FED staying on script uh they're trying to pretend that they have the intention to raise interest rates and so they want to continue the pretense that we're moving towards that direction but I think that next move by the FED is more likely to be launching another round of quantitative EAS in qe4 rather than any kind of rate hike and how would that affect us well it's going to affect us the same way the last several rounds did it's going to further screw up the economy you know the US economy is in much worse shape today than it was five six years ago when the fed you know brought us down this path Unfortunately they can't get out of this monetary policy without precipitating a crisis and maybe the FED knows that maybe they don't uh but we're going to we're going to learn this lesson unfortunately the hard way well let's talk politics Peter obviously the Obama Administration has a big incentive to pressure the FED because as long as interest rates are minuscule almost non-existent we can't really cope with the full consequences of this mounting debt the CBO says when interest rates go up we it will be unsustainable so what is the pressure from the White House of any on the FED not to raise rates well I think there will be pressure coming from all front the White House the Wall Street Housing Industry everybody is addicted to cheap money everybody is dependent on it but unfortunately we've made lots of economic mistakes there are major misallocations of resources that have been brought about by the fed's artificial supression of interest rates now when the FED stops doing that all the problems rise to the surface and we realize you know what a mess we're in uh but the FED doesn't want anybody sobering up they don't want anybody understanding how bad the problems are so that's why going to do more quantitative easing but eventually uh the bottom will drop out of the dollar the Dollar's been rallying recently based on the belief that the fed's going to tighten and that the US economy is sound when people realize that they've bet wrong that the FED is going to ease not tighten the dollar will really drop and I think when the Dollar's decline turns into a route the fed's going to be backed into a corner and they're going to be reluctantly forced to raise interest rates and by that time you know all hell is going to break loose when they have to do that well as investors try to seek a safe Harbor while all hell breaks loose Peter we think about precious metals been a lot of talk about silver lately and going to Silver in terms of investment your your take on that well not many people have been turning to the precious metals that's why silver prices and gold prices are off so much people have put their faith and their trust in the FED in the dollar and I think uh you know they're going to be very disappointed by what happens and I think a lot of people that should have been buying precious metals have been buying dollars in treasuries instead and when they realize their mistake it's going to be a rush for the exits when it comes to the dollar and the treasury market and a rush to accumulate gold and silver there's not that much around so a lot higher when investors finally put two and two together well Peter let's go back to the spend ah HX in Congress for a minute because there's a lot of pressure now to raise the Deb ceiling and borrow borrow borrow more connect the dots for our viewers between this mounting debt and the interest rates you got 45 seconds to do that yeah the only way that we can service the debt is at ridiculously low interest rates I mean we're just as broke as Greece and we're no more able to repay our borrowed money than they are but we can pretend we're solvent so long as the FED is monetizing debt and interest rates are at zero but it's when interest rates start to rise that everybody will realize that we're broke you got that done in less than 45 seconds a scary thought that we're like Greece and that's G rece the country not Grease the motion picture or the musical around the corner there on Broadway from Newsmax New York Peter uh you make inherent sense and we'll have to watch out for our perhaps devalued dollar if this quantitative easing continues sir our thanks to you and Betsy our thanks to you as well and America's Forum will continue right after this Timeout on Newsmax TV
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