Bill Gross 14 June 2017 No doubt FED's statement was hawkish

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결론: 빌 그로스는 연준의 매파적 발표(점도표상 금리 인상 4회)를 과도하다고 보며, 연준이 계획대로 금리를 올리고 보유 채권을 축소하기 어렵다고 주장한다. 금리 인상 한계 주장: 현재 인플레이션은 2% 약간 아래이고 오르지 않고 있으며, 명목 GDP는 4% 이하라 연준 기금금리는 1.5~1.75%를 넘기 어렵다고 본다. 연준이 2.25~2.5%까지 올리면 10년물 4%대 금리가 나타나 경제·금융시장에 부담이 된다고 경고한다. 금리·모기지 영향: 10년물 금리 4%는 30년 모기지 금리를 150~200bp 끌어올려 주택시장에 부정적이라고 언급한다. 양적 긴축 주장: 연준이 월 500억 달러씩 국채를 매각하는 계획에 대해 연준 자체 연구에서 양적완화가 10년물 금리를 약 100bp 낮췄다는 결과가 있어, 이를 되돌리면 금리가 오를 수 있다고 주장한다. 장기 금리 전망: 2018~2019년경 양적완화 효과가 사라지면 10년물 금리가 연준 기금금리 전망치보다 낮은 2.1% 수준에 머물러 더 낮출 여지가 제한된다고 본다. 시장 인식: 시장이 연준 발표에 무관심(하품)하지만 시장이 이 점을 주목해야 한다고 강조한다. 출연자 전망: 연준의 점도표와 양적 긴축 계획은 실행이 어렵고, 시장이 점차 이를 반영할 것이라는 입장이다. 자산 가격에 대한 구체적 목표가는 언급되지 않았다.

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01. well I'm not yawning um I recognize that the Market's yaw well I'm not yawning um I recognize that the Market's yawning but um what we've heard today in terms of the um you know the dots uh which suggest four increases over the next uh year and a half to uh perhaps two and a quarter or two and a half percent and what we've heard in terms of the you know the sell back into the uh treasury market of ultimately $50 billion a month I mean they're very bearish let me just point out one thing that Market should know Brian the market should know that the Federal Reserve itself had a study just this month that the quantitative easing over a period of time lowered 10year treasury rates by close to 100 basis points so you know if at some point in 2018 or 19 um you know a lot of that is gone then the 10-year treasury at 210 below the FED funds rate projected by the FED U at the end of 2018 where has it to go in terms of low interest rates I I think it's a it's a hawkish statement No Doubt okay then is this an economy or a financial Market or both bill that could withstand call it 25% fed funds and a 4% tenure oh that's the key uh the 4% tenure immediately brings to mind where mortgage rates 30-year mortgage rates would be and now we're talking about certainly an increase of 150 to 200 basis points and negative for the housing market and ultimately we're talking about as the FED Ponders as well what the neutral fed funds interest rate is in this type of environment where inflation is at slightly below 2% and doesn't seem to be rising I would think that uh the FED funds rate can go no higher uh than 1 and a half to uh 1 and 3/4% over time given these current conditions given nominal GDP at 4% or less given inflation at 2% or less and so yeah uh I I I think that the FED can't follow through with their dot plan and I think that the FED can't follow through with what they're suggesting in terms of the uh sell backs on the treasury market but uh ultimately um that's their plan and I think the market should begin to to take notice of that at a 210 Treasury we're talking about as the FED Ponders as well what the neutral fed funds interest rate is in this type of environment where inflation is at slightly below 2% and doesn't seem to be rising I would think that uh the FED funds rate can go no higher uh than 1 and a half to uh 1 and 3/4% over time given these current conditions given nominal GDP at the both bill that could withstand call it 22% fed funds and a 4% tenure oh that's the key uh the 4% tenure immediately brings to mind where mortgage rates 30-year mortgage rates would be and now we're talking about certainly an increase of 150 to 200 basis points so negative for the housing market and ultimate a treasury market of ultimately $50 billion a month I mean they're very bearish let me just point out one thing that the market should know Brian the market should know that the Federal Reserve itself had a study just this month that uh quantitative easing over a period of time lowered 10year treasury rates by close to 100 basis points so you know if at some point in 2018 or well I'm not yawning um I recognize that the Market's yawn well I'm not yawning um I recognize that the Market's yawning but um what we've heard today in terms of the um you know the dots uh which suggest four increases over the next uh year and a half to uh perhaps 2 and a qu or 2 and a half% and well we've heard in terms of the you know the sell back into the 19 um you know a lot of that is gone than the 10year treasury at 210 below the FED funds rate projected by the FED U at the end of 2018 where has it to go in terms of lower interest rates I I think it's a it's a hawkish statement No Doubt okay then is this an economy or a financial Market or