저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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노동시장은 과열도 악화도 아닌 안정 상태이며 실업수당 청구건수는 20만~24만 건 구간에 머물러 2026년 양호한 흐름을 뒷받침한다. 주거비 하락이 CPI 서비스 부문을 낮춰 연준 기준금리는 3%대 초반(저 3%)까지 내릴 여지가 있다고 본다. 단기 리스크로 대법원의 관세 판결, 1월 30일 정부 셧다운 가능성, ACA 보조금 만료와 전기요금 상승을 꼽았고, 감세 환급과 휘발유 가격 하락은 긍정 요인이다. 진행자는 연말 S&P500·다우·나스닥이 연내 신고점을 경신할 것이라고 주장한다.
다듬은 글
fearless disease. What this all means for stocks. Let's bring in Jeremy Seagull, Wisdom Tree Chief Economist and Warden School Professor of Finance. Jeremy, great to see you. Happy holidays. Thank you. Uh labor market still doesn't give you too many things to worry about and claims. Although yesterday people were looking at conference board uh job differential and what that might mean for, I don't know, the prospect of a jobless expansion, let's say.
Yeah. Yeah. that the the sweet spot for jobless claims uh you know is between 200,000 and 240. We have just been there virtually every week which is really you know shows you know not an overheating labor in the market to say the least but one that is certainly not deteriorating and you know setting us up for potentially good 2026.
Do you think uh a a more dovish rate environment can unwind some of the job loss that might come from technology? Yeah, I mean I I you know I I think we should be in the low 3s on the Fed funds rate. I mean we really had a good in inflation report and I don't think it's as distorted as a lot of people had had feared.
the the housing component um is going to actually contribute a downward pressure for I think many many months uh on the service part of the CPI over the next year and that's going to keep it in line once the the Trump bump of those tariffs which I think we're mostly through maybe a little bit more uh in a next month or so goes through uh you know I think we we would be on the low twos on on the CPI enough for the Fed had to get it the get the rate down further.
Fed fearless disease fam they may expose the truth they hate to hear like right now if you are ready speaking a lot of facts right now especially when it comes to a eye what I think so far is going to be the holiday trading is is very light right now as you're watching this is Christmas Eve but this is the holiday trade is very low um which is which is expected right now we're still getting a lot of price action but it's it's primarily low especially in the in the Dow the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ very slow right with a little bit of price action, but AI names are holding right now and Trump economy is the setup is going to be strong next year.
He already said it right there. There's a lot still a lot of concern when it comes to the the job market, but it's going to be just fine. Just because AI is taking over a lot of things doesn't mean that people should not get a job or go into the field of AI. So, they control AI. AI is just not by itself and can be able to do everything on its own.
It needs people to program it to be AI, take care of it, and to manage it, manage it. So the maintenance needs to be ran by humans. Stop crying. Go get the education. Let's see what else they have to say about it. Policy though, Professor Seagull, isn't in a vacuum. And you also have the backdrop of a fiscal stimulus in the form of changes to tax policy which could benefit individuals in the form of bigger refunds, lower tax rates as well as corporations.
And so how do you balance the two in terms of on the one side you have things that could actually spur growth, spur some inflation and the other side you've got also the Fed that that could lower rates. Yeah. And as Carl mentioned at the top uh you know we we still have two little bumps we have to go through before those tailwinds you just mentioned uh take place.
I mean we do have a Supreme Court ruling likely in a few weeks about the legality of the terror. Now, my recommendation is basically what the Supreme Court should do is is say to Trump, hey, you you need approval of Congress. We're going to give you 6 months to get it rather than just saying it's illegal.
Give refunds. I think that would be real disruptive. So, we're going to have to see how that proceeds. And then, hey, let's not forget, um, there may be another government shutdown on January 30th, something nobody wants, but uh, and few are talking about now. If we get through those two bumps, uh those tailwinds that you talked about are certainly uh you know operative uh over the next year.
Yeah, it's really I think that the picture right now of push and pull uh for Q1 before he gets in of course Q1 Q1 I know he's probably going to say it's going to be a wonderful year but I think at least by the end of the year you see S&P 500 is still up uh 0.09% 09% but I think it's going to it's going to continue to get the high highs by the end of the year and and the Dow and NASDAQ are going to do the same exact thing.
Um buying is up. I thought it would be light over the holiday season, but looks like people are rallying up and buying and keeping this the market flowing with a lot of money. Thanks, Trump. You too. You mentioned the tax refunds. Uh maybe checks from Congress. We'll see. Certainly gas prices. All positive.
And then on the negative, if they start seizing student loan uh payments or electricity keeps running double CPI or ACA subsidies expire, I mean that that's that's a real balance of of risks and tailwinds, isn't it? Yeah, it is. I mean, the ACA subsidies are going to be the big battle. Well, I mean, you know, the Dems have have certainly put their, you know, put their hat on that as being the uh somewhat of what they're going to campaign on uh for the for the midterm election.
So, you know, I uh you know, I I think we have to look at what's going to happen in four weeks there and what the what the Republicans are going to do that that that is, you know, health care costs, electricity costs are are are the drags. Certainly, gasoline costs are certainly a positive. The refunds are definitely a positive and and the fact that, you know, rental prices and home prices have stopped going up.
They're still expensive and, you know, certainly out of reach of of of quite a few Americans, but at least we don't have that uh, you know, doubledigit inflation that we had in He's very true. We're not that double- digit inflation. I'm going finish off what he said that Biden had during his term. Everything is up.
AC, the NASDAQ, 100 games. As I say, the Micron, the Costco, PDD, and and Western Digital. Man, we are looking good going into the end of the year. New highs going to come, not just SP, S&P. New highs are coming from everywhere. Smash that like, tap the next video here on the screen, subscribe, and hit the bell.
The Cash App Fearless Z is always in the description if you are rocking with the movement. See you on the next one. Stay rich and stay fearless.
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