저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
요약 보기
시겔 교수는 AI 기업들의 과도한 차입이 시장 리스크라고 경고하면서도 AI 자체는 지속된다고 봄. 연준 금리는 저금리(3%대 초반 언급, CPI 2%대 초반 도달 시 추가 인하)로 갈 것이며, 관세 효과와 주택 임대료 안정으로 인플레이션은 둔화 중이라고 평가. 대법원 관세 판결과 1월 30일 정부 셧다운 가능성 등 단기 리스크를 언급. S&P 500은 연 2~5% 상승 가능성을 강조하며 장기 투자를 권고. 마이크론은 AI 수혜주로 긍정 평가.
다듬은 글
fearless disease. What this all means for stocks. Let's bring in Jeremy Seagull, Wisdom Tree Chief Economist and Wharton School Professor of Finance. Jeremy, great to see you. Happy holidays. Thank you. Uh labor market still doesn't give you too many things to worry about in claims. Although yesterday people were looking at conference board uh job differential and what that might mean for, I don't know, the prospect of a jobless expansion, let's say.
Yeah. Yeah. Before we go ahead and start fill today, we expose the truth they hate to hear. Like right now, if you are ready, I know he's going to jump into the companies right now. What's going on with NASDAQ and AI and everything, but I what I really believe is AI companies are really borrowing a lot of billions.
They have to. Everybody's going to a spot where they have to be able to be more innovative and they have to create more money. So, if you want to make money, you got to borrow money or you got to be able to invest more money. So I believe AI companies are definitely borrow billions to go put back into this this this uh market right now.
The debt investors are they grow very wary of this and financials are kind of like a um financial companies they may not be u scared of things they but they may be a threat to certain people but I'm going to let them explain a little bit and elaborate on what I'm talking about. Let's hear what they got to say on the squad on the screen today.
The the sweet spot for jobless claims uh you know is between 200,000 and 240. We have just been there virtually every week, which is really, you know, shows, you know, not an overheating labor in the market to say the least, but one that is certainly not deteriorating and, you know, setting us up for potentially good 2026.
Do you think uh a a more dovish rate environment can unwind some of the job loss that might come from technology? Yeah, I mean I I you know I I think we should be in the low 3s on the Fed funds rate. I mean we really had a good in inflation report and I don't think it's as distorted as a lot of people had had feared.
the the housing component um is going to actually contribute a downward pressure for I think many many months uh on the service part of the CPI over the next year and that's going to keep it in line once the the Trump bump of those tariffs which I think we're mostly through maybe a little bit more uh in a next month or so goes through uh you know I think we we would be on the low twos on on the CPI enough for the Fed had to get it the get the rate down further.
Definitely going to go to a low too. CPI is definitely going to get there. Uh but it's going to take a little bit more time. And you see the Dow is already at 48,556 and that's easily up what 0.24% as you see on it on the on the screen. But it it look what what else is saying is S&P 500 is coming off its 38th record close of the year, man.
Which is awesome, man. S&P 500 is looking I mean it's looking beautiful. If you guys are putting a lot of money into that for your savings or aka your second 401k, man, invest in it. S&P 500 is looking absolutely beautiful. It's one of those those stock markets and it's one of those those uh those investments that you can put in.
It's going to guarantee at least two to 5% every single year. You know, it's going to do that every single year, sometimes even more. So, I would definitely stay on that. Fed policy though, Professor Seagull, isn't in a vacuum. And you also have the backdrop of a fiscal stimulus in the form of changes to tax policy which could benefit individuals in the form of bigger refunds, lower tax rates as well as corporations.
So how do you balance the two in terms of on the one side you have things that could actually spur growth, spur some inflation, and the other side you've got also the Fed that that could lower rates. Yeah. And as Carl mentioned at the top, uh you know, we we still have two little bumps we have to go through before those tailwinds you just mentioned uh take place.
I mean, we do have a Supreme Court ruling likely in a few weeks about the legality of the terror. Now, my recommendation is basically the Supreme Court should do is is say to Trump, hey, you you need approval of Congress. We're going to give you six months to get it rather than just saying it's illegal.
Give refunds. I think that would be real disruptive. So, we're going to have to see how that proceeds. And then, hey, let's not forget um there may be another government shutdown on January 30th, something nobody wants, but uh and few are talking about now. If we get through those two bumps, uh those tailwinds that you talked about are certainly uh you know, operative uh over the next year.
Yeah, it's really I think the the picture right now of push and pull uh for Q1, Q2, you mentioned the tax refunds, uh maybe checks from Congress, we'll see certainly gas prices, all positive. And then on the negative, if they start seizing student loan uh uh payments or electricity keeps running double CPI or ACA subsidies expire, I mean, that that's that's a real balance of of risks and tailwinds, isn't it?
Yeah, it is. I mean the ACA the subsidies are of course before he keeps on going. He said a few things in there. We think that it's it's it's in the whispers of this gossip right now that we may have another shutdown in January. It may and may not. It's going to keep on happening because of inflation.
It's going to keep on happening because of Fed cuts and jobs. Um it's going to be always argument with that but I don't know if it'll be another shutdown. If it does then we will have to see that when that day comes. Also what they always talks about as far as gas prices are of course down, groceries are going down.
I mean inflation is going down. Trump is doing an awesome job right now when it comes to the market and that's all due to the tariffs that we they implemented almost a year ago. But it's awesome going to be the big battle. I mean, you know, the Dems have have certainly put their, you know, put their hat on that as being the uh somewhat of what they're going to campaign on uh for the for the midterm election.
So, you know, I uh you know, I well, I think we have to look at what's going to happen in four weeks there and what the what the Republicans are going to do. That that that is health care costs, electricity costs are are are the drags, certainly gasoline costs are certainly a positive. The refunds are definitely a positive.
And and the fact that, you know, rental prices and home prices have stopped going up. They're still expensive. and, you know, certainly out of reach of of of quite a few Americans, but at least we don't have that uh, you know, doubledigit inflation that we had in the early 2020s. Exactly. Exactly how you end it.
In the early 2020s, we had that horrible, horrible, I mean, should I say it again? Horrible double digit inflation, but now it's down to single digits with Trump under it. Um, that's something that's not being pushed 100% on the other side, the mainstream, uh, about how wonderful Trump is doing right now.
You see a little faded right there. Micron is still up 3.96% which is a beautiful, beautiful stock that you just get into when it comes to AI. I've already implemented within my household. I think that's something that you should be able to jump in. Now, my prediction so far, um, like I said, this is not financial advice, but it's just my prediction so far.
Crash of AI is going to be going to flop. Um, it it I don't think it's going to flop, but it it's either going to do really really well, stay moderate, but I don't think it's going to crash. But it all depends on if they're going to be borrowing too much. I'm talking about the heavy hitters. They're borrowing too much and they not able to to bring back the money to into the market.
Um, it all depends. It all depends. As as far as us as the smaller guy, um, I would say put your money into Micron. AI is not going anywhere. It's is it's going to be here forever. But that makes sense. Go ahead, smash that like, tap the next video here on the screen, subscribe, hit that bell. Cash at Fearless Z's is always in the description if you are supporting the movement. See you on the next one. Please stay rich and stay fearless.
Comments 0