저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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결론: 그랜섬은 시장이 1929년급 붕괴 직전이며 백신 접종 완료 전후로 버블이 꺼질 수 있다고 경고했다. 핵심 경고 1 - 과도한 낙관: 투자자 과신이 정점에 달하면 위험 신호이며, 차입 증가가 대표적 징후다. 그는 현재를 '가벼운 히스테리' 수준으로 봤다. 핵심 경고 2 - 고평가 저실적 종목: 매출·이익 없이 고평가된 기업들이 시가총액 상위에 있다는 점을 우려했다. 예시로 퀀텀스케이프(주가 10달러→130달러, 4년간 양산 불가)를 들었다. 고평가 자체보다 기초 수치 점검이 중요하다고 강조했다. 핵심 경고 3 - 경제 체력 약화: 실업률이 높고 중앙은행 정책 여력이 거의 소진됐다. 노동 인력과 공급은 줄었는데 물가는 높다고 지적했다. 미국 국채금리가 역사적 저점 수준이라 대응 수단이 부족하다고 봤다. 핵심 경고 4 - 붕괴 양상: 버블은 한꺼번에 터지지 않고 주니어 성장주 → 중형 성장주 → 시장 전체 순으로 '천 번의 칼질'처럼 무너질 수 있다. 다만 버블이 예상보다 오래 유지될 수 있고 타이밍 예측은 위험하다고 덧붙였다. 결론 및 조건: 백신 이후 낙관이 한동안 이어질 수 있으나 장기적으로는 경계가 필요하다는 입장이다. 특정 종목 매수·매도 언급은 없음. 출연자 전망: 시장 전반 하락 경고(1929년급), 단기 낙관 지속 가능성 언급. GMO에서 2.2억 달러 자금 이탈 보도도 함께 언급됨.
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when Jeremy Grantham speaks the market listens hello and welcome back to our Channel today we'll be telling you about why the collapse will rival 1929 according to Jeremy Grantham watch this video till the end as you will also come to know about more Global Market updates towards the end and don't forget to subscribe to our Channel let us begin the market listens to Jeremy Grantham and he trusts that the market is standing on the verge of a catastrophic decline on par with the 1929 Wall Street catastrophe Grantham is the co-founder of an investment management organization known as Grantham Grantham who is a prolific investor mayo and Van otterloo or GMO has once again sounded the Doomsday alarm claiming that the market has until the conclusion of the vaccine deployment to burst the bubble grantham's prophetic Market calls are worth paying heed to after predicting the bull Market's comeback in 2009 and avoiding the.com catastrophe Grantham who has Decades of investing experience and an incredible record of track for his forecast now gives us some detailed insight into his gloomy warnings and investing philosophies and his most recent interview with Bloomberg which has been viewed over a million times grantham's four warning flags of impending disaster 1.
when the level of overconfidence reaches its apogee ironically if the Market's doing well it probably shouldn't be Grantham searches for periods of great Market excitement and advises that here investors must be more careful history books are much clearer when confidence hits these levels Grantham told to Bloomberg it's really tough to enhance your enthusiasm from where we are now which is mild hysteria when investors are overconfident in the stock market and believe that it will continue to rise indefinitely they will borrow to keep the momentum going and one of the most telling signs of optimism is a surge in borrowing to throw it into the market Grantham also addressed similar concerns in his most recent wire which focused on the impending post-vaccine reality check investors are riding high on the covid-19 vaccine rollouts optimism but when the vaccine comes in place the emotional High may come crashing down Market participants will breathe an air of relaxation see around and understand that the economy is still not in good health said Grantham 2.
under performing stocks that are overvalued overvaluation in and of itself isn't a harbinger of approaching Calamity but the underlying numbers must be closely monitored Grantham believes that overvaluation can last for years but he also sees a troubling pattern of expensive companies with little sales and no earnings that are nonetheless among the Market's largest we survive in a world that's at the end of the day a real place of humans and production rent them at so investors must return to Basics despite their optimism my quantumscape stock started trading at USD 10 and has since grown to usd-130 it was greater than GM and Panasonic combined and this is a fantastic firm but it holds no qualms about announcing that it won't be producing batteries for the next four years Grantham says it exemplifies many tech stocks nature today as well as the concerns that they are burning cash while years away from production three unemployment is high and the central banks don't have tools for dealing with it an announcement was made by the U.S federal government about a slew of monetary policies in March 2020 to mitigate covet 19's economic effects however rates of unemployment haven't rebounded and the FED has used nearly all of its available tools to keep markets afloat if you look back before kovid you'll see that we've lost a lot of economic strength Grantham said we have less persons working and a smaller supply of goods and services yet the price is far higher when you have a long 16 U.S government Bond you could have many rescues you don't have much to throw on the table when interest rates are at their lowest in history 4.
don't all burst together the stocks of Junior growth next sank followed by the medium growth stocks and eventually the market died of a Thousand Cuts however Grantham cautions that not each bubble burst in the same style and that the bubble can stay in a holding way for a longer duration the trouble about a bubble is that you don't realize you're in it until it's too late is it really the planet's end in his wire Grantham warns that nailing the timing on a bubble is a risk to the career either you call the bubble too soon or you ride over the cliff every cycle GMO has absolutely been chastised for staying conservative to the Limit where 2.2 billion dollars has been pulled out of the fund leaving it in search of greener pastures while grantham's economic concepts are true the market is susceptible to disruptions as well as the whims of a person's behavior and emotional funding following the covid-19 vaccine there may be New Hope extending optimism a little further down the road fortune telling is not without flaws but only time will tell thank you for watching let us know your response in the comments below hit the Bell icon for more amazing content and like and share the video with your friends and stay tuned
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