저자: MichaelBurry · 외국인
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마이클 버리가 'sell' 트윗을 철회하며 나스닥 급등이 과열됐다는 기존 입장을 수정했다는 내용. 다만 연준의 금리인상 기조와 근원 인플레이션 지속으로 경기침체 가능성은 여전히 높다는 것이 핵심 논지. 버리는 1월 31일 'sell' 트윗으로 1월 나스닥 10.7% 상승 후 매수를 경계했으나, 이후 2월 2일 S&P500이 연내 고점을 찍고 약 3% 조정. 버리는 이후 자신이 틀렸다며 조정 시 매수한 투자자를 축하. 나스닥100은 12월 28일 저점 대비 20% 상승해 기술적 강세장 진입. 영상은 이를 강세장 전환 신호로 해석 가능하다고 전함. 버리는 연준이 금리인상을 이어가며 한두 차례 추가 인상(25bp) 후 정지할 수 있다고 봤고, 현재 글로벌 중앙은행 정책 방향은 역설적이라고 평함. 설문에서 미국인 3/4 이상이 2023년 변동성 장세에 대비 중이며, 62%는 경기침체를 대비 중. JP모건은 2023년 중 침체 확률을 50% 이상으로 전망. 역사적으로 주식시장은 경기보다 먼저 바닥을 찍고 회복하며, 2009년 3월 저점 이후 6월 경기침체 종료까지 S&P500은 약 40% 상승했다고 예시. 방어주(재무 건전·경쟁우위 기업) 선호, 저점 분할매수 권고. 누구도 단기 시장 방향은 정확히 예측할 수 없다고 강조. 버리 본인 발언(설명란 기준): 나스닥이 12월 저점 대비 20% 이상 상승해 과열, 2010년대 코로나 이후 같은 랠리 기대는 여건이 달라 부적절. 연준이 은행위기 중에도 금리를 올린 만큼 가계·기업 고통이 느껴질 때까지 단기금리를 더 올릴 수 있으며 이는 사실상 경기침체를 의미. 인플레이션이 여전히 강하다는 공감대가 있고 연준의 대응 능력에 대한 의문이 있다고 언급.
다듬은 글
we're NASDAQ out more than 20 from a December low the NASDAQ Rally's been overdone people are expecting the same sort of performance we saw post coven and I think the conditions are just very different it's not a supporter for that today we're shining the spotlight on none other than the legendary Michael Berry you remember him from The Big Short that's right the guy who nailed the 2008 housing crash prediction Barry has taken the Internet by storm building a massive following with his uncanny ability to spot potential risks in the market he's been sounding the alarm for over a decade even calling a spike in inflation earlier this year but here's the twist Barry recently stunned everyone by admitting he was wrong so the question burning in your minds is what was he wrong about well you should stick with us as we dig deep into the details and also uncover what varies change of heart could mean for each and every one of us as investors we won't waste a second so let's Jump Right In recently Mike Michael Berry made headlines when he publicly acknowledged that he was wrong now this is quite a statement considering Barry's track record of accurate predictions but what exactly was he wrong about let's delve into the details and uncover the fascinating story behind it all for years Barry has been warning about potential risks in the market and earlier this year he even predicted a spike in inflation however something changed in his outlook on January 31st Barry sent out a one-word tweet that said sell this tweet came at a time when the stock market was on a remarkable upswing in fact the NASDAQ Composite had risen by a staggering 10.7 percent in January marking its best start to a year in almost two decades many interpreted Barry's tweet as a cautionary signal to investors advising them not to be lured by the market gains and urging them to refrain from buying into the rally and just a few days after his tweet on February 2nd the S P 500 Index reached its highest close of 2023.
I however this was followed by weeks of declines with the index falling roughly 3 percent since then but here comes the twist Barry surprised Everyone by retracting his statement he tweeted that he was wrong to say sell and went as far as congratulating those who took advantage of the market dip to buy stocks now it's unclear whether Barry's latest tweets were laced with sarcasm but something significant happened around the same time the tech-focused NASDAQ 100 entered a technical bull market for the first time in nearly three years it closed 20 percent higher from its December 28th low sparking speculation that Barry's change of heart could be a signal of a broader shift in the market sentiment after all Barry's reputation for foresight has earned him respect and if he admits he was wrong it could very well indicate a turning point is this a bull market or is this a bear Market rally and either way it's basically how you frame it depending on where you think the trajectory is I think the FED can continue to have The Narrative of hiking maybe another hike of 20 five basis points stay there foot on the brake foot on the gas it's counter-intuitive but this is where Global Central Bank policies are going right now so what does all of this mean well one possible interpretation is that we might be on the verge of a new bull market but what exactly is a bull market you might ask simply put it's a period when Securities experience a price increase of more than 20 percent after a period of decline while Barry doesn't explicitly make this claim analysts are speculating that his change in stance could be an indication of Shifting tides in the market now let's pause for a moment and let's talk about how you might have felt when you first heard that Barry admitted he was wrong did it surprise you did it make you question your own investment strategy you're not alone if you feel confused or uncertain in fact recent surveys reveal that over three quarters of Americans are bracing themselves for a very volatile Market in 2023 and if that wasn't enough to keep us on our toes a significant 62 percent of participants are preparing for a potential recession this year now let's break it down here's the bad news the likelihood of a recession is looking increasingly probable the experts at JPMorgan Chase projected greater than 50 chance of it happening sometime in 2023.
it's an unsettling prospect that can make it challenging to maintain optimism about the stock market and economy but hold on tight because there's also good news on the horizon brace yourselves for a possible bull market and here's the kicker it might arrive sooner than expected we all know that no downturn lasts forever and history has shown us time and time again that the market eventually bounces back it's merely a matter of time before we witness that remarkable Rebound in fact the stock market is often described as being forward-looking during economic uncertainty it usually declines before the economy does the reverse is also true typically the market recovers before the economy hits Rock Bottom except for a few exceptions the inner workings of the stock market and economy can be complex and confusing but what you need to know is that waiting for the economy to fully recover before diving into Investments could mean missing out on the early stages of the next bull market let's take a quick trip down memory lane to the Great Recession in March 2009 the S P 500 hit its lowest point signaling a significant downturn however it's important to note that the recession didn't technically end until June of that same year during those few months something extraordinary happened the S P 500 surged by an impressive 40 percent imagine if you had waited for the economy to be on their rebound before investing you would have missed out on those incredible earnings so here's the takeaway while we can't predict with certainty whether we're in the early stages of a bull market or simply experiencing a temporary rebound before prices fall again waiting for stock prices to unequivocally rise means forfeiting valuable time to grow your Investments no doubt investing during uncertain times can be in and nerve-wracking Endeavor but here's a valuable tip seize the opportunity to buy during the Market's low points and patiently weather the storm it's a tried and true method for building long-term wealth now let's talk about investing in the right places it's crucial to ensure the safety of your hard-earned money during a recession weaker companies face a tougher battle for survival making their stocks inherently risky on the other hand healthy businesses with solid fundamentals such as strong financials and a competitive Advantage are far more likely to bounce back after a downturn by filling your portfolio with these resilient stocks you provide yourself with an added layer of protection against the hardships of recession although your Investments may experience temporary setbacks in the short term there's a significant higher chance that they will make a full recovery in due course let's face the truth no one can accurately predict where the market is headed in the upcoming months however it's important to remember that it's only a matter of time before the market embarks on a road to recovery what do you you think was Michael Berry wrong to say cell and is he wrong again to say he was wrong do you think we're on the verge of a new bull market let us know in the comments with that said thanks for watching and see you in our next video I got more than 20 for my December luck the NASDAQ rallies been overdone people are expecting the same sort of performance we saw post covid and I think the conditions are just very different it's not a supporter for that but the FED has proven by hiking rates the last time instead of just pausing for a moment in the midst of a banking crisis is that the really ready to continue to push short rates higher until the household and business pain is felt I.E probably recession I think we actually get a lot of resonance on this idea that inflation is still strong and underlying inflation is still strong and where there's more of a question from clients is does the FED have the ability to respond to that
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