저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 2023년 세계경제는 IMF 전망처럼 둔화되며, 과잉 유동성 소거 과정에서 시장 변동성이 커질 것이라는 비관적 시각. [글로벌 경기 전망] IMF가 2023년 세계 성장률 전망을 하향 조정했고, 세계 경제의 약 1/3이 침체 상태에 놓일 수 있다고 경고했다. 미국·EU·중국 경기 둔화가 거론되며, 우크라이나 전쟁과 고금리가 주요 원인으로 꼽혔다. [중국 경제] 12월 제조업 PMI가 3개월 연속 하락해 거의 3년 만에 가장 빠르게 위축됐다. 100개 도시 주택가격도 6개월 연속 하락했다. 제로코로나 해제로 공장이 재가동되더라도 3월 분기까지는 불확실성이 크고, 원자재 수요 증가로 인플레이션 압력이 남아 있다고 봤다. 중국 둔화는 태국·베트남 등 아시아 교역국에도 부정적 영향을 준다고 했다. [금리·통화 영향] 고금리는 기업 투자를 억제하고 신흥국 자금 이탈을 유발하며, 약한 통화와 높은 생필품·에너지 수입 비용을 초래한다. 유럽은 전쟁 여파로 기업과 가계가 크게 타격받았다고 언급. [2008 금융위기와 유동성] 2007~2009 글로벌 금융위기 이후 중앙은행들의 자산매입과 현대통화이론(MMT)식 유동성 공급이 확대됐고, 약 30~35조 달러가 경제에 투입됐다고 주장. 이 과잉 현금이 현재 글로벌 인플레이션의 일부 원인이라는 입장. 이를 상쇄하려면 신규 유동성 공급 없이 3년 정도 시간이 필요하다고 봤다. [시장 전망·리스크] 고용이 견조해 보여도 새로 생기는 일자리의 임금 수준이 낮을 수 있다고 지적. 인플레이션 해소 전까지 자산가치 조정과 시장 격변이 이어질 것이라고 전망. [출연자 전망 요약] 세계 시장이 위기에 빠질 가능성이 높다는 비관론 우위. 다만 시청자 의견도 묻고 있어 확신의 정도는 강하지 않음. [언급 종목·자산 방향] 특정 개별 종목 및 지수 목표 가격은 언급되지 않았음. 중국 경기 둔화와 글로벌 침체 우려는 원자재·신흥국·성장 자산 전반에 부정적 함의.
다듬은 글
you must be aware of the headline grabbing events like the war in Ukraine Rising prices higher interest rates and the spread of covid in China it's pretty clear that this will have an effect on the world economy but did you know that a third of the global economy will be in recession this year yes this warning has come straight from none other than the head of the international monetary fund crystalina georgieva she is warned in no uncertain terms that 2023 will be tougher than last year as the U.S EU and China see their economies slow in this video I will talk you through not only how the recession will impact your life but also how the policies of big countries from many years ago led to the problems we're facing now let's get into it right away in October the IMF cut its prediction for the growth of the world economy in 2023.
it was said that hundreds of millions of people will feel like they are in a recession even though they live in countries that are not in a recession one of the I mf's predictions is based on the war in Ukraine another important problem is high interest rates which are caused by central banks around the world trying to control inflation China which has the second largest economy in the world started to open its doors again after covet but experts have warned that 2023 will be hard for the Asian Powerhouse let's start with China the emerging superpower has been a key commercial partner for the Asia Pacific area for many years and it has also provided economic help during time of Crisis Asian economies are currently dealing with the long-term Financial consequences of China's response to the epidemic the official purchasing managers index PMI for December showed that industrial activity in China dropped for the third month in a row and at the fastest rate in almost three years this was because coronavirus cases spread throughout the country's factories China index academy one of the largest independent Real Estate research companies in the country a poll and found that home prices dropped in a hundred towns for the sixth month in a row in the same month president XI Xin ping who usually stays calm in all situations was a little upset when he talked about this problem he called for more effort and unity in China to enter what he called a new phase as soon as Beijing stops zero covet factories could start making things like Tesla electric cars and Apple iPhones again but just when inflation seemed to be at its highest point Rising demand for things like oil and iron ore is likely to push prices up even more the loosening of China's internal coveted boundaries is not a cure-all at least until the March quarter the switch will be hard and cause a lot of uncertainty because of the US economy's slum there is also reduced demand for goods created in China and other Asian Nations like Thailand and Vietnam for the next couple of months it would be tough for China and the impact on Chinese growth would be negative the impact on the region will be negative the impact on the global growth will also be negatives at IMF supremos 190 Nations make up the IMF an international body they cooperate in an effort to stabilize the world economy being a mechanism for early economic warning is one of its most important functions these remarks from the IMF will raise concerns for people all throughout the world especially in Asia which had a challenging year in 2022 going back to interest rates higher rates make borrowing more expensive which discourages businesses from investing in company growth investors May withdraw funds from an economy due to a lack of growth leaving Nations particularly those that are poorer with less money to pay for essential Imports like food and energy a currency's value versus that of more successful Nations might decline during these slowdowns aggravating the problem to make matters worse the war in Ukraine has been a major factor in the steady rise of prices throughout the Asia Pacific in Europe businesses and and households have suffered greatly governmental economies are also impacted by increased loan interest rates particularly Emerging Markets which may find it difficult to pay back their debts and the crises from the past is what led to the current events we are all aware of the terrible global economic crisis that occurred between 2007 and 2009 and became known as the global financial crisis or GFC this crisis which extended from the United States to the rest of the globe via connections and the Global Financial system was sparked by a decline in the U.S housing market many banks experienced significant losses and needed assistance from the government to stay afloat as the main industrialized economies went through their biggest recession since the Great Depression in the 1930s millions of people lost jobs after the GFC many people didn't understand why the U.S government and a few European countries did what they did due to the risk of a very bad financial spread the United States stepped in and the Federal Reserve started buying risky assets with money from its balance sheet also the ECB in Japan did the same thing in the end many countries used it a group of pseudo-scientific economists came up with the modern monetary Theory this Theory basically said that you can keep printing money and putting it into the economy to keep things running smoothly and really create long-term growth it turns out that many people in government were fooled fast forward to 2022 in 14 years around 30 to 35 trillion dollars were put into the economy by countries around the world that shouldn't have been there this widespread cash glut may be partly to blame for the global inflation that is happening right now so we have been hiding the real supply and demand since 2008.
not just in the last six to eight months when we've talked about a Slowdown or inflation because it has been building up in this system one thing we need to realize is that if we want to reach real economic balance all of that money must be destroyed in some way so that's the backdrop up so now you know what would happen if you decided to take 30 trillion dollars out of the world economy I think that the world economy is worth close to 85 trillion dollars so 30 trillion dollars is more than half of the world's yearly GDP things probably won't get back on track until three years have passed with no new money being added and careful money being taken out so it looks like we're just starting what will be a long and difficult process this will have a wide range of effects that will keep the markets on edge if a recession is coming you might also wonder why the jobless rate isn't higher the problem is that even though Global wage markets are fairly strong the jobs that are being created may not all pay well you also need to think about how much your assets are worth right now it's a small part of a much bigger Trend which must be that the price of things is going up because of fake money after all that fake money is taken out I don't think it would take six months to find out what something really costs so there will be a lot of tumult on the market with this we wrap up this episode of informed investing do you believe that the world markets are doomed or do you think this is just fear-mongering by vested interest drop a line in the comments and let me know thanks for watching please subscribe to my channel and hit the like button if you enjoyed the video so that you may be notified when I upload a new one
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