Mohamed El-Erian Talks Fed Policy, Markets | Bloomberg Talks

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2024년 8월 엔화 강세·일본 금융시장 충격이 미국·서방 시장으로 전이된 상황을 다룸. 일본은 저성장·고부채·양적완화 누적으로 취약성이 드러났고, 금리 인상과 엔 강세가 충격의 발단. 중국 성장 둔화로 글로벌 저성장·저인플레 환경 지속. 미 연준은 데이터 의존성이 과도해 변동성을 증폭시킨다고 비판하며 선제적 가이던스 필요성 강조. 미국 경기 둔화가 기업 수요 신호에서 빠르게 나타나므로 금리 인하가 늦었다는 입장. 잭슨홀 연설에서 파월이 정책 내러티브를 재정립할 기회라고 봄. 영국 폭동은 저성장·비포용적 성장이 원인이라고 진단.

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01. [ joining us now Muhammad El Aran where we're supposed to talk about fed policy this that well throw it out the window Muhammad L Arian is definitive in Game Theory and thinking about the probabilities that risk the uncertainty of given events including what we saw yesterday he is advantaged by being at Queens College the University of Cambridge which means he's advantaged by one of the world's great Asian programs with the leadership of Andrew marsham who's just absolutely definitive on these studies Dr L Aran I want to go back to Martin feldstein just a year and a half before he died the Japanese economy is a paradoxical mixture of prosperity and failure Marty felstein was so far out front on their cyclic failure to be normal when Japan blew up yesterday with their new policy when they blew up yesterday the equity market decline how does that redound over to the American and the Western markets Tom thanks for having me and I thought we were going to go straight to the miracle of the Mets still being in the Wild Card chase that is a miracle it was discussed this morning it is a miracle um look when you run an economy at low growth high debt zero interest rates and quantitative easing for a number of decades and that's what happened to Japan then you get first the contrast that Marty felstein correctly pointed out which is the flow numbers are awful but the stock numbers are great so a wealthy economy that nevertheless doesn't grow but importantly you incourage that wealth to go seek higher returns elsewhere and that's what happened the Japanese Financial system became very large holders of other people's Securities then when you change the regime and you raise interest rates the currency appreciates um inflation comes back suddenly people cannot refinance these positions and are either actual or perceived sales so what happened in the last few days is a shock that started into you us migrated to Japan it then exposed a vulnerability that a lot of people knew about but didn't take as seriously and then that got Amplified and then it came back here Monday the thing to me that's so important your Mohamad and this goes back to your arch excellence in Game Theory as a tea decision Japan has to make a tea decision except it's not like 10 years ago wayy at Black Rock Says China if they're lucky will do 3% real GDP growth no one's prepared for that I understand how does Japan adjust given the new struggling China so they have a financial issue and an economic issue the financial issue will be easier forbearance regulatory forbearance so they will not force sales from their financial institutions they will have a lot more patience with the mismatches that the financial institutions have in terms of their real economy they they face the same issue that most countries face which is with the exception of the US and even the US has a question mark over it there isn't much growth in the global economy yeah so they will be competing for a limited pi and China is way ahead of other countries trying to get a bigger share of that Pi I can't emphasize enough Paul Bruce casman at JP Morgan was brilliant on this in a Global tepidness disinflation is the overlay that affects us Muhammad when I started on Wall Street in the mid 80s a tour of Duty in Tokyo was an absolute must that's how important Japan was to Global Wall Street but then for the last 25 or years or so we just never talked about it what changed in the last year or two that people like Warren Buffett are saying you really have to pay attention to Japan what's changed so I think what's changed is is the hypothesis that they are finally exiting multi- Decades of economic M mediocrity that is I think what has changed and that's why up to July the Japanese stock market was the was the deer I mean people fell in love with the Japanese stock market in a way that they haven't done for a very long time um that is what has changed but again it's important exactly what you said most people stop looking at Japan so the understanding of Japan is not as deep as you'd like it to be in Wall Street all right Muhammad what I'd love to get your thoughts while we have you what did you experience yesterday what did you see yesterday in the US markets cuz boy yesterday morning it was because Tom Keane was not in the market didn't know what to do I took off yesterday Mohamed I was so stunned by the New York Mets that I needed a day of rest what did you make of yesterday's market action Mohammad so so yesterday was an example where we lost three anchors we lost the notion that of US economic exceptionalism that anchor was put in doubt with the data we lost the notion of policy anchors because people started calling on the FED due to an intermediate cut there was I mean there was a lot lot of ridiculous things being said and we lost Tom kean's calm voice so you know it's incredible to see the two-year move 20 basis points in TR in tray it's incredible um I I mean I got a sense and I put this on X that we overshot on the fixed income side so I I was quite comfortable about treasury yields coming back I was worried about whether credit would be contaminated credit was not contaminated in any meaningful sense yesterday that was a pleasant surprise and then I was reassured that we didn't have a market functioning problem with the Mohammad Arian of alons and of course Queens College the University of Cambridge we continue with Dr aian we got green in the screen not like we had on Futures but we'll take it uh SPX up 4/10 of a percent vix 32.482947 Central Bank should use what is the te decision that Jerome Powell faces after yesterday's festivities um the marketplace thinks it is whether to cut 2550 or 75 in September that is that is what the marketplace thinks I would bring you to the end of this month and Jackson Hall um he has a golden opportunity to regain control of the policy narrative and to do that he has to take some risk in laying out what he thinks the neutral interest rate is in discussing like the bank of England has discussed what structural changes are happening to the domestic economy and to the global economy so for me his T decision is actually at Jackson Hall whether he just gives a mailin speech or whether he tries to regain control of the policy narrative and Mohammad we're going to get the surveillance golf stream out to get you to Jackson Hole for a coverage Lisa britz and I will be at Jackson Hall with that said Mohammad the heart of the matter is you mentioned Boe and particularly legard ECB and she gave a speech last year at jackon excuse me she wrote a paper last year at Jackson Hall on this Muhammad we're addicted we're we're in a greens spanian measured Cadence does that fit the events right now or does po have to elucidate at Jackson Hall that we can lose measured and be more ad hoc more unmeasured in our policy so it's really interesting because I think the FED being so excessively data dependent has been actually quite ad hwk um the amount of pivots in the forward guidance we've had over the last 12 months is enormous you know I I actually have a slide that shows every pivot and that's a problem because if you allow data to swing you so much then you become an amplifier of Market volatility rather than a stabilizer so I think they need to be Less ad hoc less so data dependent and and and have the courage to be strategic have a courage to to say this is where we think the economy is going I understand why they're not doing that they tried it in 2021 with the famous transitory inflation call they made a horrible mistake and because of that they've shied away but that's what a central bank is supposed to do that is what Greenspan did that is what banki did that is what Yellen did and I think it's important for this fed to be not just data dependent but also to have a forward-looking view of the economy that's a that's a great Point Muhammad because a lot of folks that we speak to both in Academia and in practice say they're not looking at the right data they're not looking at the real- time data if they were looking at the real time data they would realize that the economy is in fact slowing that inflation is in fact under control and that they should be cutting rates right now do you go that far yeah that's where I was I called for for for a cut last week yep I've been arguing for the last three months that the US economy is slowing much faster than most people anticipate why because in addition to the data I've been listening to the companies I've been listening to what they they're telling us about what they're seeing in terms of demand they should have cut in July they didn't that was a mistake um they can they can still regain control of the narrative but it is doing some really hard work that they need to do and Having the courage to share it with the rest of us I look mamad we got time for one final question and and I you know I got eight places to go here but I'm going to do an audible on you Mohamed and we've done this for years we had a turnover of power a graceful turnover of power in England and now it is United Kingdom and an England descending into riots and protests on the streets how do you observe that what can be the government response to a persistent rioting as we see in starers England I think it's a two-step response one is you first try to control the immediate situation which is which they're trying to do um and then the second one is to look at the cause of this and the cause of of the polarization and alienation of segments of the population and it is about out low non-inclusive growth um the the new labor government has called growth a mission they now have a growth Mission so it it comes right at the top of the policy agenda and I think that unless we start generating High inclusive durable and sustainable growth then the social and the political fabric will come under pressure dran thank you so much with Queens College University of Cambridge Muhammad L Arion with an important timely dis discussion particularly there on Japan to me Paul that's the heart of the debate is I get I get the idea of global slowdown and the central bank and the fed and last week you know etc etc but to me it is the unwinding of a massive policy challenge I I look carefully I'm not I'm not going to go into it now we don't have time but the integran the length the duration of their inflation spurring experiment is unprecedented it's like ever it's never they've never put so much into escaping the malaise the great Marty felstein as spoke of that was wonderful magical day Muhammad laran talking on the great work of the late Martin feldstein of Harvard University red and green on the screen NASDAQ fractionally negative da up 45 points the Vick's 32.6 real churning the market after what we saw at yesterday thanks for all your comments particularly search And subscribe out at Bloomberg podcasts on YouTube