저자: Ale · 외국인
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AMD 주가 급락 원인과 매수 여부를 다룬 영상으로, 발언자는 장기 성장 관점에서 보유 중이나 추가 매수는 하지 않겠다는 입장이다. - 결론: AMD는 장기 보유 중이지만 현재 가격대에서 추가 매수는 서두르지 않는다. - 주가 흐름: 연초 10달러 미만에서 한때 34달러까지 상승 후 약 26달러로 약 20% 하락, 연초 대비 약 157% 상승 상태라고 설명. - 하락 원인 1: 급등 속도가 너무 빨랐다는 점 자체가 조정 요인. - 하락 원인 2: 인텔이 10나노 칩 양산을 앞당길 가능성이 있어 AMD의 7나노 경쟁 우위 기간이 줄어든다는 우려. - 하락 원인 3: 최대 주주 무바달라가 2천2백만 주를 크레딧스위스에 매각한 뒤 60일 락업 해제 시점과 하락 시점이 겹쳐 차익실현 매물 추정. - 성장 근거: 라이젠·스레드리퍼 판매 호조, 2세대 제품 코어 수 증가와 가격 인하 효과, 7나노 라이젠·에픽·베가/나비 GPU 출시 기대. - 시장점유율: 데스크톱 GPU 점유율 AMD 30%→36%, 엔비디아 69%→63%로 개선 추세 강조. - 애널리스트: 로젠블랫은 목표가 40달러 제시. 서버 시장에서 인텔 매출(약 190억 달러)의 10%만 뺏어와도 약 20억 달러 규모로 AMD 2017년 전체 매출(약 50억 달러)을 크게 넘어선다고 언급. - 리스크: 인텔 10나노 칩 성능이 다운그레이드될 수 있다는 미확인 루머 언급, 선행 PER 약 40으로 고평가 우려 인정. - 출연자 전망: 시장이 오래 강세였고 급락 가능성도 있으나 당장은 시간이 남았다는 입장. 기존 포지션은 유지, 추가 하락 시 매수 고려, 대형 베팅은 하지 않음. - 기타 종목: 디즈니는 공격적으로 매수했으나 상승 중이라 속도 조절 예정, 액티비전블리자드는 부진해 추가 매수 중이라고 언급. - 투자 원칙: 본인의 리스크 감내 수준과 투자 성향(성장주 선호)에 맞춰 판단해야 한다고 강조.
다듬은 글
so if you guys have been keeping up with the channel since basically the beginning of the channel then you know that AMD has long been one of my three largest investments in the stock market but after climbing at such a very fast rate I told you guys that I was cashing in a lot of my profits because at that point I had already doubled and almost even tripled my money but as you guys know I still held on to a very large chunk of that AMD stock as a long-term investment I think currently it's like my sixth largest stock right now in my portfolio but since then the stock has climbed a little bit higher at one point reaching as high as $34 per share which is very high considering that we were talking about AMD when it was like below $10 a share so it's climbed a lot and then but since then it's actually dropped by pretty significant amount dropping to around $26 per share at the time of this recording representing a very significant drop of around 20% but the crazy thing is that AMD stock is still up around a hundred and fifty seven percent year-to-date which is just incredible performance but because of all of this kind of recent volatility I've been receiving three primary questions from you guys and that's why is AMD stock crashing do you think it will rebound soon and is it a buy on this dip all great questions let's get started what's up everybody my name is alia and welcome to my world of stocks so let's go ahead and tackle that first question of a wise AMD stock crashing well first off I think we all know why aim D stock was climbing a lot right they were doing very well in the server market their Rison CPUs were performing very well selling very well their GPUs were also doing pretty well so to put it plainly AMD's you know more diversified approach of selling competitive products at more affordable pricing was basically paying off but another reason is because intel has been really struggling they've been struggling with chip shortages and delays in fact at one point their new 10 nanometer chips were expected to be delayed all the way back to holiday 2019 not to mention that I think their server chips were delayed all the way till 2020 but I can't remember off the top of my head so I don't want to comment on that but anyway that left a huge opportunity for AMD to swoop in with their seven nanometer chips which by the way you know a seven animator compared to 10 nanometer should ideally offer better performance but that's kind of an argue thing that we'll talk about later but anyway that just kind of gave an opportunity for AMD to kind of sneak in a head of Intel and offer competitive products before Intel now to my knowledge we still don't have any concrete release dates for AMD seven nanometer products as far as I know we should be getting the seven nanometer Vega GPU Pro card later this year like by the end of this year but that's kind of a pro card it's not really like a gamer consumer card but then we should be getting there's seven nanometer epoch server CPUs sometime next year in 2019 and then followed by that should be followed by their rise in seven enemy to rise in desktop CPUs as well again sometime next year in 2019 but we don't really have a concrete release date at least not to my knowledge I haven't seen anything specifically or officially announced by AMD but ultimately the fact that AMD had this opportunity to kind of release their products ahead of Intel which probably will still happen but we'll kind of talk about this in a second that led to a lot of analysts upgrading AMD stocks so analysts like Jeffrey's for example they upgraded AMD stock reiterating ratings raising price targets you know some price targets going up to like $40 like some even higher so that all kind of it was just kind of good news that just kept pouring in and AMD stock just kept trading higher and higher and higher because the good news kind of didn't stop and Intel was also kind of really seeing you know bad news so that just kind of kept helping AMD stock but why then has AMD stock been dropping well I think that there's really a few different reasons that we could look at and some of them are even arguable but I'll just give you my personal opinion on some of the biggest reasons why I think AMD stock is kind of pulling back now okay now one of the reasons certainly has to be because AMD stock just climbed way too fast now don't get me wrong I was expecting it to reach these levels but I just wasn't it wasn't expecting it to do it this quickly so a 20 percent pullback does seem kind of reasonable now you might be saying you know a 20% drop doesn't really sound like a small pullback or anything like that and you're absolutely right but when you think about it this stock was trading at less than $10 per share earlier this year and then it reached over you know over $34 that's a huge increase so when you when you take that into consideration 20% pullback isn't really that significant but perhaps an even bigger reason is because Intel is now reporting that they're ramping up production of their 10 nanometer chips and they may actually get those out way ahead of schedule than what was previously expected you know we used to expect these chips to be out sometime holiday 2019 I'm now seeing estimates for you know as early as June or even earlier than that so that's a very you know that's significantly earlier than what we previously expected so if Intel can get their 10 nanometer chips out much earlier than we previously thought that significantly shrinks the window for a and B to kind of swoop in there and get their products out earlier than Intel and kind of try to steal some of that market share and again as I mentioned earlier we don't know exactly when AMD will get their seven nanometer chips out next year some reports are saying early next years I've seen some that say second half of 2019 so that's a significant difference there but given the the progress that Taiwan's semiconductors have made with the 7n Amir process that's the foundry that aim'd uses to build their chips I'm willing to predict that it's probably going to be in the first half of 2019 but yet another reason why AMD stock has been pulling back is probably because their biggest shareholder Mubadala sold twenty two million shares to credit Sue's back in July which in turn had a lock-up period of 60 days and if you look at the end of those 60 days that puts the timeframe right around the time that AMD stocks started pulling back so that's kind of led to the assumption that Credit Sue's took the stock at around $20 per share and then that stock climbed by you know 50% or more to over $30 per share so you know it's safe to assume that they probably want to cash in some of those profits and subsequently that would bring the stock down because of all the selling so that leads us to the final question which is do I think that AMD stock is a good buy on this dip well this is just my opinion you obviously have to make your own decisions but you know I think game DS future still looks pretty good now before we get into all the pressure from Intel that we'll talk about in just a second you can't forget that AMD is having a lot of success with a very well diversified portfolio for the cpu market you're talking about Rison processors that continue to sell very well not to mention that they just recently got the second generation of rising out this year and the second gen of thread Ripper offers as many as 32 cores and 16 threads which is double what the previous generation offered and that's allowed AMD to cut the prices on their first generation processors to help boost sales even more and on top of that we should be getting the seven nanometer rise and chips sometime in 2019 which could potentially get a holiday boost in sales if they can get them out in time and then you look at the GPU side of things the graphic side of things and we know that we're getting the seven nanometer vague approach hit by the end of this year that's well ahead of schedule some estimates and rumors are saying that we could get the seven nanometer navi by next year which would also be well ahead of schedule because I think the navi chip was estimated to be 2020 but if we get it 2019 that would also be ahead of schedule and then that's not to mention the fact that the next generation of home gaming consoles from Sony and Microsoft will probably be using either Vega or Navi as well and even though Nvidia really dominates the discrete GPU market with better performance we can't forget that AMD is really closing the gap I mean take a look at some of these numbers here now AMD has climbed from 30 percent market share last year to 34% last quarter and 36 percent this quarter while NVIDIA has actually dropped from 69 percent last year to 65 percent last quarter and 63 percent this quarter all thanks to AMD offering competitive GPUs at a fraction of the cost so you can really see that AMD is gaining market share and videos actually losing market share in fact Rosenblatt securities actually raised their price target to $40 per share and one of the reasons that they noted was the fact that AMD will have their 7 nanometer GPUs out very soon and that will offer improved performance at still very attractive prices you know much lower prices than what NVIDIA offers and so that should help AMD continue to gain more market share especially in emerging markets like the server market and the artificial intelligence market and speaking of the server market we know that AMD should have their 7 nanometre epic chips by next year 2019 I still have no idea when Intel is really seeing their next offering but that this could potentially be a huge deal because if AMD can get their chips out ahead of Intel and steal some more market share you can't forget that Intel actually made around 19 billion dollars in server revenue last year alone so if AMD steals just 10 percent of that market share which by the way a lot of analysts are expecting them to do I think I forget if it was Jeffrey's or someone else but someone estimated I think 12 percent by next year which is huge because it would it would equal to around 2 billion dollars of revenue or more and that's massive because you got to consider aim DS revenue for all of 2017 in total was around 5 billion dollars so that would equate to some enormous revenue growth now when looking at the added pressure from Intel or the recent pressure from them ramping up production and maybe getting their 10 nanometer chips out ahead of schedule there's a few different ways that we could look at and I have some different thoughts and opinions on that so ok so let's start with this well a lot of people say that Intel's 10 nanometer process chips are very similar in terms of technology and performance they'll be very in terms of performance they'll be very similar to AMD's 7 nanometer ship so just because AMD has a smaller manufacturing process doesn't necessarily mean that they'll be better performing but the thing is that AMD's chips will cost significantly less so if AMD markets it correctly basically what they've been doing is basically saying hey we offer similar performance at a much cheaper price then then it still looks very good for AMD and they could still steal market share the other thing to consider is that hybrids I've read some rumors but these are just rumors so please you know III hate saying take it with a grain of salt as I feel like that phrase is overused and it gives me a headache when I hear it but I just know that these are rumors so don't take them too seriously but I've seen some rumors that say that because Intel is trying to speed up production of their ten nanometer chips that they will actually have weaker performance like they're actually downgrading their chips so that they can get them out faster those are just rumors I haven't seen anything officially stated by Intel or AMD on any of that but if that's if that ends up being true and Intel has weaker performance they actually have to downgrade their chips I could potentially hurt Intel stock and make AMD look a little bit better as well but in any case when I look at AMD I think that all the fundamentals are still there all that future potential is still there you know I'm not saying that Intel and NVIDIA are not gray stocks to invest in I've never said that I never make that claim the only thing that I've said is that I have always preferred AMD because the way I saw it was that Intel and NVIDIA were kind of at the Intel and NVIDIA were kind of at the top of the hill and AMD was kind of at the bottom so I saw more market share that AMD could actually steal whereas I saw Intel and NVIDIA in a position where they could actually lose market shares so that's that's kind of why I went for like the underdog I kind of went for AMD because I saw more upside potential and I think a lot of that potential is still there for AMD so I still like AMD I don't think a lot of things have changed the only things that I've changed in my opinion is that a lot of hype has been kind of added to the stock and it's driven the stock price up a lot so you know a lot of people would argue that it's very expensive right now which I don't disagree with I think their forward p/e is like what 40 so you know the forward p/e is still pretty high so you know you could definitely make the argument that AMD stock is too expensive I'm a growth investor so these are the kind of stocks that I usually invest in anyway it really just depends on how much risk you can tolerate now if you want to know what I'm doing specifically like this is literally what I'm doing I still have a position in name D but I'm not adding to that position because like I said a lot of a lot of hype has kind of entered the stock and on top of that there are other stocks that I really like right now like Activision has been kind of struggling lately so I've been buying more of that I've been buying Disney kind of aggressively but Disney is kind of climbing a little bit right now too so I should probably slow down my binding with Disney and that might free up some cash so so we'll see maybe all that to AMD but right now I'm just holding I still have a big position named D I'm just holding it if it climbs up great if you know three recoveries and keeps climbing that's great and if it drops more then then I'll consider buying it but right now I'm I'm just not in any kind of hurry to do anything crazy you know the stock is kind of expensive when you really think about it and you got also consider we're not you know we've been in a bull market for so long a lot of people are screaming that there's gonna be a market crash right around the corner I'm not necessarily one of those people I think we still have some time but but you know it's just those are all just things to consider so just think about what type of investor you are and what type of stock you want to invest in but anyway I hope that you enjoyed this video if you did please consider hitting the like button supporting the channel and if you have any questions let me know down below and I guess that's it so I'll catch you in the next video have a wonderful beautiful day take care bye bye
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